CLIMATIC HAZARDS

1. DEVELOPMENT Conventional Worlds Great Transitions Barbarization ECOLOGICALINTEGRITY ECONOMICSECURITY Livelihood Capitals EDUCATIONEVALUATION Social Human SOCIAL EQUITY Physical Natural market forces fortress world eco-communalism COMMUNITYCAPACITY Financial policy reform breakdown new sustainability Climatic disasters in Orissa REGIONAL VULNERABILITY Indicators of vulnerability are common in sectoral planning—whether for food security, water poverty, health, desertification, human development,or ecosystems. Such ‘vulnerability maps’ are the basis for assessingpresent exposure to climatic risks and sustainable livelihoods. The MS Swaminathan Research Foundation’s Food Insecurity Atlas of Rural India (2001) indicates that Bihar has the highest vulnerability, on allthree dimensions—of food availability, access and nutrition. Poverty and poornutritional status mark the northern tier of vulnerable states. Food insecurity map CLIMATIC HAZARDS Climatic disasters are recurrent threats tosustainable livelihoods in Orissa.Rather than mean temperature or seasonal rainfallthese hazards are the main threats to lives,as well as economic constraints to development. Droughts, floods or cyclones are almostannual occurrences in Orissa (left). Severe Moderate • CLIMATE CHANGE • Global, regional and local climatechange will affect livelihoods inIndia. A global range of changesin temperature and precipitation has been calculated through the IPCC using global climate models. • Regional scenarios for India are being developed by various institutions.A shortcoming of our understanding of climate change is reliable forecastsof seasonal and interannual variability and for climatic hazards, such as drought, floods and cyclones. • Which ‘not implausible’ scenarios threaten livelihoods? • Can seasonal and interannual forecasts promote sustainable development? SUSTAINABLE LIVELIHOODS Present livelihoods, particularly those most exposed to climatic hazards, can mobilise natural, financial, physical, socialand human resources (the five capitals of a sustainable livelihoods approach). Indicators for livelihoods in Orrisa show their relative insecurity for food availability, accessand nutrition. The scale is from the minimum to the maximum scores for the 16 states in the MSSF database. How vulnerable are livelihoods to present and future climatic risks? What are effective coping strategies to ensurehuman security? Climate change in Asiafrom IPCC TAR PATHWAYS OF SUSTAINABILITY Vulnerable livelihoods are ever changing. Economic growth, sound resource management and good governance have led to reduced vulnerability and more sustainable livelihoods. However, in many places poverty persists and livelihoods are at-risk. Over the next few decades, the impact of climate change will become apparent, not least in increased extreme events. Pathways of future sustainability should draw upon scenarios of development—encompassing ecological integrity, economic security and social equity, as in the Global ScenariosGroup Great Transitions (right). How likely are we to achieve the Millennium developmenttargets? What scenarios of the future frame risks to current livelihoods? • ADAPTIVE CAPACITY • While the local forecasts, for livelihoods and climate, are highly uncertain, sufficient understanding of the risks warrants investment in climate adaptation. • Priorities include: • Reducing vulnerability to present climatic risks • Promoting sustainable livelihoods • Building capacity to adapt in the future • At a policy level, sustainable development and climate policy need to be linked in ways that are mutually beneficial. • Which immediate measures build long-term adaptive capacity?Which integrated approaches to disasters, mitigation and impactssupport sustainable livelihoods?