Six pathways toward a vulnerability science for adaptation to climatic hazards

Six pathways toward a vulnerability science for adaptation to climatic hazards Thomas E. Downing,Stockholm Environment Institute www.VulnerabilityNet.org

Six pathways • Frame concepts and define vulnerability • Link qualitative narratives and quantitative data • Choose indicators that reflect an agreed framework • Depict the multiple attributes of vulnerability • Link assessment of vulnerability to evaluation of adaptation • Represent dynamic vulnerability in coupled socio-ecological systems

I: Conceptual framings • Is there a common framework? • Has vulnerability been defined? • Are frameworks and definitions common among stakeholders? • exposure unit • threat • consequences

I: Example HAZARD • Strengths • Weaknesses VULNERABILITY

I: Example • Strengths • Weaknesses

I: Example • Strengths Weaknesses

I: Example • Strengths • Weaknesses

I: On definitions • T = Threat: • Climate change • Drought • Flood • Economic recession • C = Consequence: • Loss of life • Health and morbidity • Economic impacts on production, assets • Social stress TVcs,g • S = Sector: • Agriculture • Urban • Water • G = Group: • Smallholder farmers • Pastoralists • Urban poor

II: Link qualitative narrative and quantitative assessment • Understanding the context • Depicting multiple stresses • Representing the stories of the vulnerable

II: Example • Livelihood exposure to climatic hazards • Relative ranking of priorities

II: Example • Livelihood mapping to frame drought exposure

III: Choose indicators that capture the conceptual understanding of vulnerability • Agree a conceptual map with stakeholders • Focus on sequence of drivers and outcomes

IV: Depict multiple attributes of vulnerability • Stakeholder validation • Avoid reducing vulnerability to a single dimension • Elicit formal knowledge to validate expert models

IV: Example

V: Link vulnerability and evaluation of adaptation • Targeting and priorities • Those most vulnerable at present • And in the future? • Criteria for evaluating adaptation options • Effect on incomes of the poor • Reduction is losses from current climatic hazards • Synergies with poverty reduction strategies

VI: Represent dynamic vulnerability • Elicit responses to a range of scenarios • Construct rules for a decision tree • Iterate with vulnerable groups and experts • Link to dynamic models

Policy Global GLOBAL CHANGE: RISK MANAGEMENT: Climate WTO Objectives Economy I Criteria N Lifestyle S E T I Plans L Population T A U T C I O S N European S Union Water Local Utilities Farmers Implementation Corporate Individual ACTORS OUTCOME: Health and Safety Economic Welfare Lifestyle and Amenity Environmental Quality Vulnerability: Translating global change to outcomes through actors

Six pathways toward a vulnerability science for adaptation to climatic hazards