Chapter 9: Campaigns and Voting Behavior

1. Chapter 9: Campaigns and Voting Behavior

2. Long time • Strenuous • Trial by fire • Voters can see candidate’s stamina • Voters can see candidate’s handling of stress Style of American Campaigns

3. Cons • Difficult to hold two jobs • Running for office • Holding public office • Little true policy advancements • Next election is right around the corner • More worried about public opinion than true governance Style of American Campaigns

4. Two types of campaigns • Nomination phase • Seeking the party’s official endorsement • Open to everyone • Requirements • Money • Media attention • Momentum The Nomination Game

5. Two types of campaigns • Election phase • Seeking the votes to assume office The Nomination Game

6. Campaign strategy • The game plan • Win supporters The Nomination Game

7. Risks • Scrutiny • Examination • Rejection The Nomination Game

8. Time • Most of world = two months or so • USA = year and half The Nomination Game

9. Nomination • Win delegates • To national conventions • Known before conventions begin Competing for Delegates

10. Then and now • Then • Controlled by party bosses • Behind closed doors • Now • Delegate selection open to scrutiny • Selection (election) of delegates open to rank and file Competing for Delegates

11. Super-delegates • Party officials automatically in delegation • Only in the Democratic Party Competing for Delegates

12. The Invisible Primary • Getting support • Big name politicians • Donors • Talented political advisors Competing for Delegates

13. The Invisible Primary • Effects • Eases way to party unity • Gives clues to voters • Personal image – VITAL • Party members have similar policy goals • Voters look to personality when casting votes Competing for Delegates

14. Caucuses • Voters go to an open meeting • May last several hours • Lower turnout than primaries due to time commitment • Iowa is first • Massive media event • Massive candidate focus • Sets up losers, not winners Caucuses and Primaries

15. Caucuses and Primaries

16. Primaries • Voters go to polls • New Hampshire is first primary (second contest) • Massive media event • Massive candidate focus • Sets up losers, not winners Caucuses and Primaries

17. Caucuses and Primaries

18. Frontloading • States move primary election day earlier and earlier • Late states might have no say • Forces voters to make a rush decision Caucuses and Primaries

19. Losing early thins the field • More difficult to get donations for a “lost cause” • Can’t continue in the race Caucuses and Primaries

20. Criticisms • Early contests get too much attention and power • It eliminates well-qualified candidates • Too long a time • Can’t fulfill current job obligations and campaign obligations • Money plays too big a role Evaluating the Primary and Caucus System

21. Criticisms • Participation • Low • Unrepresentative • Older • Wealthier • More extreme in views • Media has too much power to sway voters Evaluating the Primary and Caucus System

22. Reforms • National primary • Regional primaries Evaluating the Primary and Caucus System

23. The winner is already known • Turns the convention into a giant pep rally The Convention Send-Off

24. Schedule • Key note address • Outlines party principles • Praises the eventual nominee The Convention Send-Off

25. Schedule • Party Platform • Statement of specific goals and policies • Drafted ahead of time • Can be debated and amended • Mostly all controversy is solved prior to presentation The Convention Send-Off

26. Schedule • Formal nomination of presidential candidate • Formal nomination of vice presidential candidate • Candidate speech The Convention Send-Off

27. Campaign – using resources to achieve a specific objective (election) • Try to create an image • Leadership • Compassionate • Competence • The perfect person to lead the country The Campaign Game

28. The High-Tech Media Campaign • Mass media campaign today • Internet has become huge fund-raising medium • Direct Mail • Computer generates lists of people who have shown affinity to the issues • Contact those people • Provide tailored information • Ask for donations The Campaign Game

29. The High-Tech Media Campaign • Media Attention • Candidates use own funds to sponsor commercials • Television is primary medium • Emphasis is on style • People do get information on policy issues too The Campaign Game

30. The High-Tech Media Campaign • Media Attention • Get news coverage • Hard news • Candidate’s words • Candidate’s actions • Soft news • Human interest stories The Campaign Game

31. Campaign manager • Organizes details • Keeps message on track • Professional fundraiser • Campaign counsel – legal assistance Organizing the Campaign

32. Media and campaign consultants • Plan advertising • Contract for • Posters • Lawn signs • Buttons • Literature printing Organizing the Campaign

33. Campaign staff • Coordinate volunteers • Plan logistics • Where to go • When to go Organizing the Campaign

34. Research staff and policy advisors • Give crash courses • Pre-interview information and sound bites • Press secretary • Reporters demand news • Press secretaries give positive spin news items • Establish a web site Organizing the Campaign

35. Who donates • Many small contributors • Wealthier class • “grease the wheels” • Influence buying???? Money and Campaigning

36. How to donate • Direct campaign contributions • Candidates • Political parties • Donate to groups • Make independent expenditures to express views • Cannot be coordinated Money and Campaigning

37. Regulations • Federal Election Campaign Act • 1970 (Post-Watergate) • Disclosure • Who contributed • How the money was spent • First time limits were imposed on contributions Money and Campaigning

38. Regulations • Political Action Committees (PACs) • Interest groups • Give donations to candidates • Run own commercials • Limited to $5,000 to a candidate • Limited to $5,000 from an individual Money and Campaigning

39. Regulations • Federal Election Commission • Collection of finance reporting • Candidates must file to FEC • Made public by FEC • Enforce regulations • Matching funds has fizzled Money and Campaigning

40. Buckley v. Valeo • Supreme Court • Struck down limits on donations made to OWN campaign • Soft Money • Donations to political party • For “party” business Money and Campaigning

41. Soft Money • McCain-Fiengold • Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act • 2002 • Soft money banned • Electioneering by corporations and unions • Banned within 60 days of election Money and Campaigning

42. Soft Money • McCain-Fiengold • Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act • Banned within 60 days of election • Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission • Struck down the restriction • First Amendment violation Money and Campaigning

43. 527 Groups • Bypass soft money ban • Cannot clearly express endorsement of a particular candidate • Unlimited donations • Must declare with FEC Money and Campaigning

44. 501 (c) Groups • Can accept unlimited donations • Do not have to report to FEC • Cannot donate more than half of funds on political activities Money and Campaigning

45. Super PACs • Can accept unlimited contributions • Can spend unlimited amounts • With no coordination • Can endorse specific candidates • Must report to FEC Money and Campaigning

46. Statistically not a lot • Per voter • As percent of GDP • Empirically it is a lot Are Campaigns Too Expensive???

47. Having enough is more important than having more than the other candidate • Effects • Reinforcement  strong • Activation  strong • Conversion  weak Does Money Buy Victory??

48. Factors weakening campaign effectiveness • Selective perception • Party identification strength • Incumbents have strong advantage Does Money Buy Victory??

49. Donations may buy access, but not votes Does Money Buy Victory??

50. Expanded Suffrage • Amendments • XV – racial barriers ended • XIX – women • XXIII – residents of D.C. • XXVI – 18 year olds • Actually lowered participation rates Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice