Voting, Campaigns, and Elections

1. Voting, Campaigns, and Elections Chapter 14

2. In this chapter you will learn about What the founders were thinking when they established a role for elections, and the potential roles that elections can play in a democracy Americans’ ambivalence about the vote and the reasons that only about half of the citizenry even bothers to exercise what is supposed to be a precious right How voters go about making decisions, and how this in turn influences the character of presidential elections The organization and strategic aspects of running for the presidency What elections mean for citizens

3. Voting in a democratic society The Constitution reflects the founders’ fears of citizens’ judgment about politics Senators originally not directly elected Originally, a Senator was elected by the legislature of a state, and was expected to represent the state government within the Federal government. It was believed that while an unqualified candidate might win a popular-vote majority through lies or superficial qualities, the legislature, which could deliberate on its choice, and whose members had been selected by their constituents and had experience in politics, would be safe from such folly. Also, election by the legislature was expected to insulate Senators from the distraction of public campaigning for election or re-election, leaving them free to concentrate on the great business of the Federal government Changed by the 17th Amendment in 1913

4. The Unwashed Masses Voting in a democratic society • President not directly elected (Founding fathers did not trust us) • Electoral College • Only House of Representatives directly elected

5. Functions of elections Select leaders Direct policy Citizen development / involvement Inform the public Contain conflict Legitimacy and system stability

6. Voting in America: who votes and who doesn’t Age: younger Americans vote less frequently Income: poorer Americans vote less frequently Education: Americans with less education vote less frequently Race and ethnicity: minorities vote less frequently National Election Study

7. ~56% ~38%

9. National Voter Turnout for 2010 Midterm Elections – about 40%

11. The darker the blue, the greater the turnout

12. Why Americans don’t vote

13. Why Americans don’t vote Legal obstacles Registration, Tuesday voting, frequency of elections, felon (up to states) In MO, felons may vote upon completion of supervised release. Attitude changes Lower efficacy (the sense of belief that one’s actions have an effect on the environment), decreased party identification Voter mobilization Mixed level of effort by parties S?

14. Why Americans don’t vote, cont’d. Decrease in social connectedness Less participation in social groups and communities (recall: “all politics is local”) Generational changes Active generations replaced by less politically engaged ones, in turn may be replaced by a more politically active generation Rational nonvoter Calculates that vote will not make a difference to outcome Lazy, poorly educated about civics/ duty

15. Get out the vote campaigns • Rock the Vote • AIGA Get out the Vote • League of Women Voters

16. Does nonvoting matter? According to book, unlikely that nonvoting significantly affects election outcome I disagree Those registered and not voting And the non-registered demographically different Consequences for democracy May question legitimacy of election if so few vote May deepen loss of efficacy of those who don’t vote

17. How the voter decides Party identification is the biggest factor accounting for how people vote Directly influences the vote Indirectly influences the vote by affecting the perception of issues and candidate evaluations Social groups If people on your slow-pitch co-ed softball team are predominately voting for a given candidate, you may vote the same way

18. How the voter decides, cont’d Issues and Policy Reliance on party labels; easy v. hard issues; media coverage Prospective voting: basing voting decisions on well-informed opinions and consideration of the future consequences of a given vote Retrospective voting: basing voting decisions on reactions to past performance; approving the status quo or signaling a desire for change Evaluate economy, foreign policy, or domestic issues Prospective voting is idealized model of policy voting, but retrospective voting is more realistic

19. How the voter decides, cont’d The candidates Voters form clear opinions about candidate qualities that are relevant to governing Trust worthy Leadership qualities Intelligent Good public speaker / motivator Likable (a good person; moral) Attractive Voters perceive differences between candidates on issues and on how they would handle aspects of presidency

20. Presidential campaigns Pre-primary season: raise money, raise credibility, raise visibility Primaries and caucuses: Primary elections are run by state and local governments, while caucuses are private events run by the political parties. Party caucus: local gathering of party members to choose convention delegates Presidential primary: an election by which voters choose convention delegates committed to voting for a certain candidate Open primary vs. closed primary

21. Republican Primary

22. Democratic Primary

23. Presidential campaigns, cont’d. Primaries and caucuses, cont’d. Front-loading: the process of scheduling presidential primaries early in the primary season Front-runner: the leading candidate and expected winner of a nomination or election Momentum: the widely help public perspective that a candidate has gained electoral strength

24. Primary Schedule • Campaigning for President often begins a year or more before the New Hampshire Primary, and almost two years before the presidential election. • For 2008, both the Republicans and the Democrats moved their Nevada caucuses to January 19, which was an earlier date than past election cycles. In response, other states also changed their primary election dates for 2008, creating a cascade of changes in other states. The election dates for 2008 were as follows:

25. 2008 Primary Calendar • January 3—Iowa caucus • January 5—Wyoming caucus (Republican only) • January 8—New Hampshire primary • January 15—Michigan primary • January 19—Nevada Caucus & Republican South Carolina primary • January 26—Democratic South Carolina primary • January 29—Florida primary • February 1 - February 2―Republican Maine caucus • February 5 ― Super Tuesday: Primaries/caucuses for both parties in 19 states, plus three Democratic-only caucuses and two Republican-only primaries • Presidential election is in November. Could low voter turnout also be because people are sick of the lengthy campaign process?

26. Presidential Primary 2012

27. Role of national conventions Conventions role changed from past Nominee is already known; merely make it official Choose vice presidential candidate Approve party platform Rally supporters

28. General election campaign The Electoral College defines strategy Visit large or competitive states Who runs the campaign? Professional campaign managers Presenting the candidate Convey clear understanding of candidate’s strengths

29. Campaign managers Jim Massina, Obama Campaign Manager 2012. McCain campaign manager Rick Davis blamed for the Palin debacle

30. Issues in the general election campaign Valence issue: an issue on which most voters and candidates share the same position Energy dependence bad Position issue: an issue on which the parties differ in their perspectives and proposed solutions Healthcare Wedge issue: a controversial issue that one party uses to split the voters in the other party Social security Issue ownership: the tendency of one party to be seen as more competent in a specific policy area Republicans: Foreign Policy Democrats: Domestic Issues

31. The media and generalelection campaigns Negative advertising: campaign advertising that emphasizes the negative characteristics of opponents rather than one’s own strengths Favorable airtime on news Candidates appear on soft news or entertainment programs Debate performance is important because many people watch and debates have significant effect on voters Clinton plays sax on Arsenio Hall No Jack Kennedy

32. Money and general election campaigns Sources depending on period of campaign: Government matching funds Hard money Soft money Issue advocacy ads: advertisements paid for by soft money, and thus not regulated, that promote certain issue positions but do not endorse specific candidates

33. Trends and interpretations of general election campaigns Get-out-the-vote (GOTV) drives by parties and groups Grassroots efforts that have increased in recent elections Interpreting elections Winner claims that victory provides a policy mandate Media develop common story explaining outcome

34. The citizens and elections Fourth model of citizen activity Democracy is better off with different types of voters Do elections make a difference? Yes, it matters who wins for government and policy Direct relationship between national elections and policies the government enacts