The Risk of Famine in a Pesticide-Free World

1. The Risk of Famine in a Pesticide-Free World Leonard P. Gianessi CropLife Foundation

2. The Crops That Feed The World • Wheat • Rice • Maize

3. Countries With High Use Of Pesticides (wheat, rice, maize) • USA, Canada • Western Europe • Brazil, Argentina • China, Japan • Australia

4. Production in Countries With High Pesticide Use % of world production 63 61 78 Wheat Rice Maize

5. Q: What would happen to wheat/rice/maize production in countries with high pesticide use if pesticides were not used?

6. Wheat Production Losses W/O Fungicides United Kingdom: France: Denmark: -20% -26% -70% ADAS, 2011

7. Wheat % of Production Attributable to Pesticides 37% 24% Australia: Canada: Deloitte, 2013 Goodwin, 2011

8. Crop Production Losses W/O Herbicides: U.S.A. % -20 -53 -25 Corn: Rice: Wheat: Gianessi 2003

9. World Production: Rice/Maize/Wheat w/o pesticides • About a 40% reduction in countries with high pesticide use

10. World Production: Rice/Maize/Wheat w/o pesticides • About a 40% reduction in countries with high pesticide use • About a 25% reduction in total world production

11. Q: Would there be famine in USA, Canada, W. Europe W/O Pesticides?

12. Q: Would there be famine in USA, Canada, W. Europe W/O Pesticides? A: Probably Not. Exports would be stopped.

13. U.S.A. Exports % of Total Production Corn: Rice: Wheat: 17 35 55

14. Norway 5 million people Short growing season Imports 50% of food supply Pesticides used on >90% of crop acres

15. Norwegian Government Questions What if food imports are cut off? Could a basic diet support the Norwegian population? Flaten, 2001.

16. Norwegian Government Questions What if food imports are cut off? Could a basic diet support the Norwegian population? Yes – with pesticides Flaten, 2001.

17. Norwegian Government Questions What if food imports are cut off? Could a basic diet support the Norwegian population? Yes – with pesticides Without pesticides – 20% of the population could not be fed Flaten, 2001.

18. Japanese Rice • Famines due to rice blast • 1695, 1783, 1833‒1837 • Last major rice blast outbreak : 1953 • Fungicides have prevented outbreaks since then Rice blast Oku, 1994.

19. Monument to fungicides for rice blast control in Nankoku, Japan

20. China Population: 1.3 billion Pesticide Sales: #1 in world Wheat/Rice: Self-Sufficient

21. China Wheat (#1 in World) Wheat losses due to rust (million tonnes) 1950 – 6.0 1964 – 3.2 1990 – 1.8 2002 – 1.3 Now: Treat 6 million hectares with fungicides Wheat rust Zhenshng, et al. 2010.

22. China Weed Impacts • 43 million hectares heavily infested • 17.5 million tons of grain lost Weedy maize field in China Zhang, 2003

23. Herbicide Use: China MillionHectares

24. China: Rice Field

25. China’s Crop Production Without Pesticides % -67 -50 Rice Wheat AGROW, 2012

26. China would “undergo famine if pesticides were not used”. The warning has come in a recent Chinese Ministry of Agriculture document… AGROW, 2012

27. Importance of Pesticides Supported By • Historical Record • Experiments • Organic Grower Experiences

28. U.S. Rice: Weeds Not Well Controlled Before Herbicides • Hand Weeders Not Used Herbicide Treated Untreated

29. U.S. Rice Yields Herbicide Adoption Complete Herbicides Introduced Lbs./ Acre

30. Canada Wheat Yields Grass Control Herbicides Introduced Herbicides Introduced

31. Tillage: Australia Dries out the soil and delays planting

32. 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Australian Wheat Yield1930-2010 (Trendlines) 78% No-Till 44% No-Till 10% No-till 10% No-Till 78% No-till Herbicides Introduced 44% No-till T/Ha Herbicides introduced

33. Michigan State University: Research Trials Cultivation of organic soybeans with 30 inch row spacing

34. Cultivators • Can’t be used in wet fields • Weeds continue to grow

35. Crop yields: MSU/LTER(1993-2004) Organic vs No-Till Corn -25% Soybean -10% Wheat -42%

36. Crop yields: Beltsville, ARS-FSP Trials (2000-2005) Organic vs No-Till Corn -22% Soybean -19% Cavigelli et al, 2008

37. Organic Rice YIELD Texas: California: -60% -50% U of California Texas A&M

38. Non-Chemical Alternatives • Not practical on large-scale

39. There is a perfect non-chemical alternative to herbicides……. But it is totally impractical on a large-scale

40. Weeding a community garden

41. In the U. S. 70 million workers would be required for weeding to prevent yield losses without herbicides. Gianessi and Reigner, 2007.

42. Weeding Rice, China Adequate weeding of rice requires 1 billion person days of labor Moody, 1991

43. Chronic Undernutrition:Prevalence of Underweight Children R. Paarlberg, 2010

44. Cereal Yields by Region FAO

45. Regional Crop Pesticide Markets Phillips McDougall

46. Africa:Maize as traditional food • Main food for 50% of the population. • 65% of farms have shortages before next harvest.

47. Maize Yields (Tons/hectare) Africa 1.6 Global 4.5 FAO

48. Maize: Africa, Fungicides Sprayed Unsprayed Fungicides increase maize yields 27 to 54% Verma, 2001.

49. Weedy Maize Field: Africa Widespread Herbicide Use Could triple Maize Production in Africa

50. Conclusion Pesticides are Essential for Feeding the World A significant increase in pesticide use would greatly improve international food security