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The Risk of Famine in a Pesticide-Free World. Leonard P. Gianessi CropLife Foundation. The Crops That Feed T he World. Wheat Rice Maize. Countries With High Use Of Pesticides (wheat, rice, maize). USA, Canada Western Europe Brazil, Argentina China, Japan Australia.
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The Risk of Famine in a Pesticide-Free World Leonard P. Gianessi CropLife Foundation
The Crops That Feed The World • Wheat • Rice • Maize
Countries With High Use Of Pesticides (wheat, rice, maize) • USA, Canada • Western Europe • Brazil, Argentina • China, Japan • Australia
Production in Countries With High Pesticide Use % of world production 63 61 78 Wheat Rice Maize
Q: What would happen to wheat/rice/maize production in countries with high pesticide use if pesticides were not used?
Wheat Production Losses W/O Fungicides United Kingdom: France: Denmark: -20% -26% -70% ADAS, 2011
Wheat % of Production Attributable to Pesticides 37% 24% Australia: Canada: Deloitte, 2013 Goodwin, 2011
Crop Production Losses W/O Herbicides: U.S.A. % -20 -53 -25 Corn: Rice: Wheat: Gianessi 2003
World Production: Rice/Maize/Wheat w/o pesticides • About a 40% reduction in countries with high pesticide use
World Production: Rice/Maize/Wheat w/o pesticides • About a 40% reduction in countries with high pesticide use • About a 25% reduction in total world production
Q: Would there be famine in USA, Canada, W. Europe W/O Pesticides?
Q: Would there be famine in USA, Canada, W. Europe W/O Pesticides? A: Probably Not. Exports would be stopped.
U.S.A. Exports % of Total Production Corn: Rice: Wheat: 17 35 55
Norway 5 million people Short growing season Imports 50% of food supply Pesticides used on >90% of crop acres
Norwegian Government Questions What if food imports are cut off? Could a basic diet support the Norwegian population? Flaten, 2001.
Norwegian Government Questions What if food imports are cut off? Could a basic diet support the Norwegian population? Yes – with pesticides Flaten, 2001.
Norwegian Government Questions What if food imports are cut off? Could a basic diet support the Norwegian population? Yes – with pesticides Without pesticides – 20% of the population could not be fed Flaten, 2001.
Japanese Rice • Famines due to rice blast • 1695, 1783, 1833‒1837 • Last major rice blast outbreak : 1953 • Fungicides have prevented outbreaks since then Rice blast Oku, 1994.
Monument to fungicides for rice blast control in Nankoku, Japan
China Population: 1.3 billion Pesticide Sales: #1 in world Wheat/Rice: Self-Sufficient
China Wheat (#1 in World) Wheat losses due to rust (million tonnes) 1950 – 6.0 1964 – 3.2 1990 – 1.8 2002 – 1.3 Now: Treat 6 million hectares with fungicides Wheat rust Zhenshng, et al. 2010.
China Weed Impacts • 43 million hectares heavily infested • 17.5 million tons of grain lost Weedy maize field in China Zhang, 2003
Herbicide Use: China MillionHectares
China’s Crop Production Without Pesticides % -67 -50 Rice Wheat AGROW, 2012
China would “undergo famine if pesticides were not used”. The warning has come in a recent Chinese Ministry of Agriculture document… AGROW, 2012
Importance of Pesticides Supported By • Historical Record • Experiments • Organic Grower Experiences
U.S. Rice: Weeds Not Well Controlled Before Herbicides • Hand Weeders Not Used Herbicide Treated Untreated
U.S. Rice Yields Herbicide Adoption Complete Herbicides Introduced Lbs./ Acre
Canada Wheat Yields Grass Control Herbicides Introduced Herbicides Introduced
Tillage: Australia Dries out the soil and delays planting
2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Australian Wheat Yield1930-2010 (Trendlines) 78% No-Till 44% No-Till 10% No-till 10% No-Till 78% No-till Herbicides Introduced 44% No-till T/Ha Herbicides introduced
Michigan State University: Research Trials Cultivation of organic soybeans with 30 inch row spacing
Cultivators • Can’t be used in wet fields • Weeds continue to grow
Crop yields: MSU/LTER(1993-2004) Organic vs No-Till Corn -25% Soybean -10% Wheat -42%
Crop yields: Beltsville, ARS-FSP Trials (2000-2005) Organic vs No-Till Corn -22% Soybean -19% Cavigelli et al, 2008
Organic Rice YIELD Texas: California: -60% -50% U of California Texas A&M
Non-Chemical Alternatives • Not practical on large-scale
There is a perfect non-chemical alternative to herbicides……. But it is totally impractical on a large-scale
In the U. S. 70 million workers would be required for weeding to prevent yield losses without herbicides. Gianessi and Reigner, 2007.
Weeding Rice, China Adequate weeding of rice requires 1 billion person days of labor Moody, 1991
Chronic Undernutrition:Prevalence of Underweight Children R. Paarlberg, 2010
Regional Crop Pesticide Markets Phillips McDougall
Africa:Maize as traditional food • Main food for 50% of the population. • 65% of farms have shortages before next harvest.
Maize Yields (Tons/hectare) Africa 1.6 Global 4.5 FAO
Maize: Africa, Fungicides Sprayed Unsprayed Fungicides increase maize yields 27 to 54% Verma, 2001.
Weedy Maize Field: Africa Widespread Herbicide Use Could triple Maize Production in Africa
Conclusion Pesticides are Essential for Feeding the World A significant increase in pesticide use would greatly improve international food security