Zaigham Habib A Researcher

1. How incomplete Hydrological and Climatological Profile of Indus Basin is hurting National and Transboundary Water Resources Management Zaigham Habib A Researcher

2. Some Questions • Do we really face data and Information issues in the water sector of Pakistan ? • What are these Issues? Why important? How affecting planning and management ? • Why not able to address despite talks, acknowledgement and investments? • Which direction we are moving ? • Backing off somewhere? Issues resolved, we are tired, reached to a limit/ mile stone

3. There are Issues

4. Supply Side Data • River flows: • Flows at Rim Stations - transboundary and internal watersheds • Flows along the rivers at barrages (WAPDA, IRSA, Irrigation Dpts). Trials to improve, general dis-satisfaction, but the single source data used by every body. • Ungauged tributary inflow, rain runoff, valley storage & return flows (have become part of the losses) • River water quality – limited project data • Precipitation (rain+) and climate data • Daily rain data, temperature, humidity and other variables (MED & others) • Glaciers, snow and water cycles (International studies, diverse results) • Groundwater • Aquifer levels/depth • Quality – actual, changes • Recharge/discharge – integrated in the quantity assessment

5. Water Use Data • Agriculture • Canal Diversions – Allocated, Monitored and Controlled Water Supply ( A key tools, data quality declined, by definition over-assessed for agriculture ) • Groundwater – Assessed based on agriculture requirements and groundwater levels (depletion/recharge) • Rain Contribution – assessed, variable, sensitive to method & models • Direct uses from rivers, streams and lakes – increasing, unaccounted • Water used from the drainage systems (urban & rural, Scarp wells & surface drains) increasing and unaccounted • Direct water uses in (formal) Barrani Areas

6. Water used by other than Agri- Sectors • Urban, Commercial and Civic supply through Municipalities – can be fairly estimated, including supply from rivers and canals • Industrial Uses - Not seriously assessed though the foot-prints are available. A part from canals was used to be Entitled and charged at a higher rate. • Ecological Uses - A measurable component from the surface diversions (from rivers, canals, drainage system – mostly freshwater). LOST WITH TIME? • Vegetation uses – natural and informal plantations. Apparently A Large Component represented in water balance by various terms (slake water, natural losses) • Forest uses – Plantations and Natural (considered negligible !)

7. Projected Trends of our most Trustworthy Data The western River Inflows show no significant change, slightly higher variability (IRSA, WAPDA, WB) Rainfall is increasing (MET, Climate change studies) Canal diversions slightly decreased after 1995, more sensitive to river-inflows after 2000. River losses have increased many folds Flows at Kotri Barrage decreasing

10. This is Alarming !

15. Where These Projections Lead

16. Climate Change Impacts Bhasha Dam Study Comparison of Historical Discharge (1984–2010) to Discharge During 10-Year Study Period (2001–2010)

17. (Shakil et al, 2015) NOVEMBER 2015, Implications of Shrinking Cryosphere under Changing Climate on the Stream flows in the Lidder catchment in the Upper Indus Basin, India, Arctic Antarctic And Alpine Research ·

18. Underestimation of Actual Water Uses • Leads to the assumption that major losses occur in the agriculture system • In agriculture all water-losses are the conveyance losses, so the projects (from 1990 onwards) investing in: • Watercourse lining • Secondary canal lining • Main canal lining • Now in sprinkler and drip schemes • After three decades (30yrs), Pakistan must have saved 50% of the system losses.

20. Salient Agri-data and Crop production Trends (reported) Actual cropped area marginal increased after 1995 (CRS) Medium and large farmers shifting to high water use crops in summer, Sugarcane, BT cotton and OrchardsIf the production data collected by Sugarcane, Cotton, Mango Associations are used, some areas may top the world!More yield from the dry and high temperature areasIrrigation outside the canal system increasingAll trends contradict projected Climate Change Impacts

21. Salient Agri-data and Crop Production Trends (reported) • Actual cropped area marginal increased after 1995 (CRS) • Medium and large farmers shifting to high water use crops in summer, Sugarcane, BT cotton and Orchards • If the production data collected by Sugarcane, Cotton, Mango Associations are used, some areas may top the world! • More yield from the dry and high temperature areas • Irrigation outside the canal system increasing • All trends contradict the Projected Climate Change Impacts

22. Example of an Intervention to improve Institutional Performance • Punjab Irrigation department has stopped assessment and collection of crop data and abiana(water charges). This data was used to be collected from each land-owner using canal water. The Crop Reporting Services new big player - collect crop data based on village surveys and report at the district level. • Abiana shifted from the crop-based to the flat rate. Water dis-linked from the cropping systems. • Outcome: Liberalization of the water-rights? Where do the irrigation-entitlements stand ? • Towards a justification for privatization of irrigation water! All indications that it will be ANOTHER BLUNDER ???

23. The Latest Groundwater Story Whose Responsibility ? Are we moving in the correct direction Three data and projected trends: Depletion and demand for Regulation New water-balances indicate no/less aquifer mining (the net discharge has decreased !!) The public wells and drainage effluent both increasing in South of the Basin

24. WB, IFRPI, IWMI 2018, Pakistan: Getting more from Water

25. Not Possible!

26. Recent Groundwater Projections and water-balances A deviation from the WB & WAPDA reports upto 1991, not explained. Apparently discharge has decreased and recharge increased ! Where ae the problems ? New Twist in Water-Balance ? Do the current projections justify any intervention?

27. Transboundary Data Issues • Where are the basic hydrological and transboundary data/information ? • What do we know about upstream catchments, climate and population impacts ? • What are the accumulated impacts of upstream water and Hydropower Structures ? • Actual data and Pakistan’s Transboundary cases !

29. Conclusion -- ASomething missing in the most discussed Interventions • Institutional Reforms • Water conservation measures • IWRM and new water projects • Agriculture Governance • Interventions for Agriculture productivity of waterHighly twisted water dialogue • Governance solutions in the air

30. Conclusion -- B • Important Gaps in the primary data: • moving towards indirect data collection • New and less accurate systems (crops, water both) • Much bigger discrepancies with aggregated and semi-processed data • Data/information not a central issue • To improve the data quality correct focus is important

31. Thanking You