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( 1) LA CNRS/UPS, Toulouse, France (2) CNRM, Météo-France, Toulouse, France

Evaluation of simulated precipitation fields of some MAP events: sensitivity experiments and model intercomparison. E. Richard (1), N. Asencio (2), R. Benoit (3), A. Buzzi (4), R. Ferretti (5), F. Lascaux (1), P. Malguzzi (4), S. Serafin (6), G. Zängl (7), J-F. Georgis (1).

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( 1) LA CNRS/UPS, Toulouse, France (2) CNRM, Météo-France, Toulouse, France

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  1. Evaluation of simulated precipitation fields of some MAP events: sensitivity experiments and model intercomparison E. Richard (1), N. Asencio (2), R. Benoit (3), A. Buzzi (4), R. Ferretti (5), F. Lascaux (1), P. Malguzzi (4), S. Serafin (6), G. Zängl (7), J-F. Georgis (1) (1) LA CNRS/UPS, Toulouse, France (2) CNRM, Météo-France, Toulouse, France (3) RPN, Montréal, Canada (4) ISAC, CNR, Bologna, Italy (5) University of L ’Aquila, Italy (6) University of Milano, Italy (7) University of Munich, Germany

  2. Sensitivity experiments based upon Meso-NH IOP2a 17 September 1999: A short, intense, isolated, convective event 70 mm within 12h

  3. 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 24:00

  4. The convective system of MAP - IOP 2a (17 September, 1999, hourly time evolution) OBSERVATIONMESO-NH COMPUTATION Toce Ticino watershed RADAR Reflectivity Z 2000m

  5. RADAR OBSERVATIONS ECMWF: OP. ANA 1999 ARPEGE: OP. ANA. 1999 ECMWF: REANALYSIS

  6. ANA. OP. 1999 REANALYSIS REANA (NO MAP DATA) IOP 2a 850hPa water vapor mixing ratio : 17 September 1999 12UTC

  7. RADAR OBSERVATIONS ECMWF: OP. ANA 1999 ARPEGE: OP. ANA. 1999 ECMWF: OP. ANA. 2002 ECMWF: REANALYSIS MAP - IOP2A: Intense Convection Strong sensitivity to initial state Low predictability

  8. 1. Sensitivity experiments based upon Meso-NH IOP2a 17 September 1999: A short, intense, isolated, convective event 70 mm within 12h 2. Model intercomparison : MC2, MM5, MOLOCH, Meso-NH IOP2b 20/21 September 1999: Orographic enhancement of a frontal system 200 mm within 30h

  9. 19 Sept. 1999 12:00 20 Sept. 1999 12:00 METEOSAT infrared

  10. The different models: MESO-NH 10 KM + 2.5 KM MOLOCH 10 KM + 2 KM MM5-RE 27 KM + 9 KM + 3 KM MM5-E1 18 KM + 6 KM + 2 KM MC2 40 KM + 10 KM +2 KM Initial and boundary conditions from ECMWF operational analyses From 19 Sep. 12 UTC to 20 Sep. 18 UTC (30 hours)

  11. Toce-Ticino watershed MAP - IOP2B - 19-20 Sep. 1999 Intercomparison exercise 4 non-hydrostatic models with horizontal resolution of 2 to 3 km Initialization based upon ECMWF operational analysis Accumulated precipitation from the 19th 15 UTC to the 20th 18UTC

  12. Time evolution of the mean hourly precipitation rate Rain gauges Radar

  13. Heidke skill scores as a function of precip. class 1h precip. 27h precip.

  14. Comparison with rain gauge measurements (121 points)

  15. Conclusion: Two contrasted MAP events !! • IOP 2a • Meso-NH results indicate a srong sensitivity to the analysis • The best results are not obtained for the « best analysis » • What is the part of luck ? • Is this conclusion model dependent? • Ideal test for mesoscale assimilation experiments.

  16. IOP 2b • Very good consistency of the accumulated precipitation pattern • Model results over/under estimate the total precipitation by a factor ranging from +30% to -30% • The bias may be related to the level of smoothing applied to the model orography • The accuracy of the model precipitation is rather weak for the hourly rainfall but fairly reasonable for the precipitation accumulated over the 30h time period of the event • Radar derived precipitation are not yet very accurate

  17. The End ! Interested ?? Join the MAP working group on NumericalModelling http://www.aero.obs-mip.fr/map/MAP_wgnum

  18. Model Topography : Dx = 2KM MM5: Max 3979m MC2: Max 3483m

  19. Sensitivity to the topography MAX: 512 mm MAX: 435 mm MEAN: 78 mm MEAN: 74 mm

  20. Heidke skill scores as a function of precip. class 1h precip. 27h precip. Sensitivity to the topography

  21. Sensitivity to the analysis ECMWF Op. Analysis MAP Reanalysis Max: 512 mm Max: 482 mm Mean: 78 mm Mean: 87 mm

  22. Heidke skill scores as a function of precip. class 1h precip. 27h precip. Sensitivity to the analysis

  23. Time evolution of the correlation coeffecient (wrt rain gauges) MM5 experiments

  24. Time evolution of the correlation coeffecient (wrt rain gauges) MM5 experiments

  25. MM5 experiments

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