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Temporal changes in Origination, Extinction & Sampling in Carnivora

GSA Session 4-13 11:15 AM Sunday 4 Dec 2012. Temporal changes in Origination, Extinction & Sampling in Carnivora. Lee Hsiang Liow Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES) University of Oslo Norway. Lee Hsiang Liow. 1 of 14. DATA. TIME. 00101010010100 01000001000000

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Temporal changes in Origination, Extinction & Sampling in Carnivora

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  1. GSA Session 4-13 11:15 AM Sunday 4 Dec 2012 Temporal changes in Origination, Extinction & Sampling in Carnivora Lee Hsiang Liow Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES) University of Oslo Norway

  2. Lee Hsiang Liow 1 of 14 DATA TIME 00101010010100 01000001000000 00000011010000 01001000000000 00000001101000 01010000010001 000000111111111 00000010100000 00101000000000 00111000000000 00001001010000 00000000111001 00000101010111 01001000000000 00000001101000 01010000010001 000000111111111 00000010100000 00101000000000 • Foote’s rates (2000) GENERA • Alroy’s part- and • three-timer correction (2008) • Capture Mark Recapture

  3. Lee Hsiang Liow 2 of 14 Detection Histories

  4. Lee Hsiang Liow 2 of 14 Detection Histories Two types of zeros - Not sampled - Truly absent or not sampled Liow & Nichols. 2010. Estimating rates and probabilities of origination and extinction using taxonomic occurrence data: Capture-recapture approachesShort Courses in Paleontology: Quantitative Paleobiology.

  5. Lee Hsiang Liow 3 of 14 Probability of Detection Histories (i.e. the Data) Time intervals 1 2 3 4 5 6 = survival probability (from one time interval to next) = sampling probability (in time interval) = “reverse” origination probability Pradel, R. 1996 Biometrics 52:703-709.

  6. Lee Hsiang Liow 4 of 14 Likelihood of Detection histories • Estimate parameters (by maximizing the likelihood) • Estimate uncertainty in parameters • Compare models • same or different detection, origination, extinction through time • model-averaging • covariates

  7. Lee Hsiang Liow 5 of 14 Why Carnivora Motivation – 1. John Finarelli School of Biology & Environmental Science University College Dublin Ireland

  8. Lee Hsiang Liow 6 of 14 Nyakatura & Bininda-Emonds. 2012. Updating the evolutionary history of Carnivora (Mammalia): a new species-level supertree complete with divergence time estimates. Bmc Biology Why Carnivora Motivation – 2.

  9. Lee Hsiang Liow 7 of 16 Nyakatura & Bininda-Emonds. 2012. Updating the evolutionary history of Carnivora (Mammalia): a new species-level supertree complete with divergence time estimates. Bmc Biology Why Carnivora Motivation – 2. • 18 MYA upturn • 7.3 MYA peak • 3 MY decline

  10. Lee Hsiang Liow 8 of 14 Carnivora Extant Recorded as fossils 443 (Neogene only) 104 extant Feliformia 99 Caniformia 334 • 134 genera • 104 are recorded as fossils • Feliformia 56 • Caniformia 78

  11. Lee Hsiang Liow 9 of 14 Ranking models

  12. Lee Hsiang Liow 9 of 14 Ranking models Model averaged estimates next

  13. Lee Hsiang Liow 10 of 14 Mean Diversification = 1.13 Mean Diversification = 1.10 • No 18 MYA upturn • No 7.3 MYA peak • No 3 MY decline Nyakatura & Bininda-Emonds. 2012. Bmc Biology

  14. Lee Hsiang Liow 11 of 14 Mean Origination = 0.12 Mean Origination = 0.13 Mean Extinction = 0.07 Mean Extinction = 0.10

  15. Lee Hsiang Liow 12 of 14 Mean Sampling = 0.50 Mean Sampling = 0.49

  16. Lee Hsiang Liow 13 of 14

  17. Lee Hsiang Liow 13 of 14 Foote’s diversification

  18. Lee Hsiang Liow 13 of 14 Foote’s diversification

  19. Lee Hsiang Liow 14 of 14 • Improved sampling toward • the Recent • Constant Neogene diversification • Very slight increase in extinction • probability toward the Recent • Caniformia and Feliformia • similar dynamics

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