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Generation and Transmission Development in the Southeastern United States. Entergy Transmission Planning Summit New Orleans, LA July 10, 2003. SERC Generation Development Survey. Fifth annual survey Survey request sent in late January Information requested from Transmission Providers
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Generation and Transmission Developmentin the Southeastern United States Entergy Transmission Planning Summit New Orleans, LA July 10, 2003
SERC Generation Development Survey • Fifth annual survey • Survey request sent in late January • Information requested from Transmission Providers • All results received by early March Leading the Industry!!!
SERC Generation Development Survey • Collects 10 years of planned generation development • Categorizes facilities by interconnection status • Interconnection service requested • Interconnection agreement signed • Sub-categories indicate the amount of generation designated as a network resource • Reports aggregate, not plant specific, generation plant capabilities • Final results reported on Regional and subregional basis
2002 Survey Projected Interconnected Generating Plant Capability in Commercial Operation Prior to June 1, 2002: (Summer Net Plant Capability in MW) 202,388 MW Total Actual Interconnected Generating Plant Capability in Commercial Operation Prior to December 31, 2002: (Summer Net Plant Capability in MW) 200,744 MW Total Merchant Generating Plant Capability in Commercial Operation Prior to December 31, 2002 : (Summer Net Plant Capability in MW) 26,399 MW SERC Generation Development Survey
Projected Capacity Additions - Cumulative, by Category -
Projected Capacity Additions - Annual, by Subregion -
Projected Capacity Additions - Annual, by Category -
Projected Capacity Additions - Cumulative Additions, Only - 300000 250000 200000 Megawatts 150000 100000 50000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Year 2001 Total 2002 Total 2003 Total
Survey Result Comparisons- Cumulative Additions, Only - 2001 Survey Results Total Projected Generating Plant Capability Additions by July 1, 2010: (Summer Net Plant Capability in MW) 205,837 MW 2002 Survey Results Total Projected Generating Plant Capability Additions by July 1, 2010: (Summer Net Plant Capability in MW) 243,669 MW 2003 Survey Results Total Projected Generating Plant Capability Additions by July 1, 2010: (Summer Net Plant Capability in MW) 72,897 MW
Projected Total Capacity- Existing Capacity plus Cumulative Additions - 450000 400000 350000 Megawatts 300000 250000 200000 150000 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Year 2001 Total 2002 Total 2003 Total
Survey Result Comparisons - Existing Capacity plus Cumulative Additions - 2001 Survey Results Total Projected Generating Plant Capability in July 1, 2010: (Summer Net Plant Capability in MW) 373,010 MW 2002 Survey Results Total Projected Generating Plant Capability in July 1, 2010: (Summer Net Plant Capability in MW) 422,988 MW 2003 Survey Results Total Projected Generating Plant Capability in July 1, 2010: (Summer Net Plant Capability in MW) 274,011 MW
SERC Generation Development Survey • Total projected generation capacity for Summer ’03 (222,960 MW) exceeds projected Summer ’03 load (157,941 MW) by 65,000 MW • Total connected generation capacity at the end of last year exceeds projections for SERC Regional load in 2012 • Projected capacity additions indicate sufficient generating resources over the long-term planning horizon
SERC Generation Development Survey • SERC Generation Development survey accurately projects actual generation development for the following year • Survey reflects recent decline in proposed generation capacity additions • Survey projects generation capacity additions of 73,000 MW over the next 10 years • Projected capacity additions for the same period have declined by 61% in the past year • Network resource additions continue to be a small percentage of the projected capacity additions in the Region
SERC Transmission Development Survey • Second annual survey • Survey request sent in late January • Information requested from Transmission Providers • All results received by early March Leading the Industry!!!
SERC Transmission Development Survey • Requests total planned transmission expenditures • 5 years of cost data • 100 kV and above • Requests aggregate data for transmission projects, only • New lines • New substations • Line rebuilds • Substation rebuilds • Line reconductoring projects • Excludes distribution station costs • Results available on a Regional and subregional basis
Transmission Development Expenditures- Projected 2002 versus Actual 2002 -
Transmission Development Expenditures- Projected 2002 versus Projected 2003 -
Survey Result Comparisons- Total Projected Expenditures - 2002 Survey Results Total Projected Transmission Expenditures Over the Subsequent Five Years : $6.932 Billion 2003 Survey Results Total Projected Transmission Expenditures Over the Subsequent Five Years : $6.265 Billion
SERC Transmission Development Survey 2003 Survey Results Total Projected Transmission Expenditures Over the Subsequent Five Years : $6,265 Million 2003 Survey Results Of the Total Projected Expenditures Over the Subsequent Five Years, Amount Attributed to Direct Interconnection of Generation : $191 Million
SERC Transmission Development Survey • Actual spending in 2002 fell short of projected spending acquired from last year’s survey • Cancellation of generation may have contributed to a portion of the decline • Shortfall was minimal, indicating real spending has been occurring on the SERC transmission systems • Projected spending for next five years (beginning in 2003) is slightly below five-year projected spending from 2002 • 2003 survey projected spending correlates well with 2002 actual spending