Violence and International Emigration in Mexico

1. Violence and International Emigration in Mexico Liliana Meza González, Ph.D. Michael Feil (Colonel retired)

2. Content of the paper • Introduction • Insecurity and migration trends • Literature review • Theoretical framework • Empirical analysis • Concluding remarks

3. Introduction • ThemainreasonbehindMexico-US migrationiseitheremployment, thesearch of a joborfamilyreunification. • PeoplefleeingMexicoforsecurityreasons can be a new phenomenonthatistaking place while total flows are decreasing, whichseemsparadoxical. • Environments of insecurity (EOI) havebeenbehindlargeflows of peoplemovingtosafer places. • MigrationfromMexicotothe US explainedbysecurityreasons can be changingtheprofile of migrants in somedestinations. • Thispaper shows a smallcorrelationbetweenviolence and emigrationtothe US using data fromMexicannorthernbordermunicipalities. • Theanalysis at a householdlevel shows a negativecorrelationbetweenviolence and internationalemigration.

4. Migration trends Source: CONAPO estimates based on CONAPO, INM, SRE, STPS, and COLEF, Encuesta sobre Migración en la Frontera Norte de México (EMIF NORTE), 2002 - 2010.

5. Internal and international migration explained by public insecurity

6. Insecurity trends Source: NationMaster crime rates. www.nationmaster.com

7. Homicides per 100,000 inhabitants Source: Mexican Federal Government, INEGI.

8. Drug related murders by state, 2011

9. Literature review • According to Pérez (2003), widespread insecurity and the public demand for quick solutions often justify military style responses to violence in ways that undermine the rule of law and promote further criminal behavior. • The consequences of crime have come to influence the economic development of countries in Latin America (Ayres, 1998). • Violence not only engulfs poor population but also affects the wealthy and powerful, many of whom contract private security or barricade themselves in gated communities (Caldeira, 2000). • Violence could be considered the central and defining problem in contemporary Latin America, and for many people in the region leaving their country and migrating to the US has become one means of escape.

10. Literaturereview • Morrison (1993) established a thresholdeffect of violencesuchthatlowlevels of violencehad no effectoninternalmigration in Guatemala, butviolencereaching a certainthresholdlevel lead peopletomigrate. • Bohra-Mishra and Massey (2011) findthatviolence has a non-linear effectonmigrationbecauselowtomoderatelevels of violence reduce theodds of movement, while at highlevels of violence, theodds of movementincrease. • Elías Alvarado and Massey (2010) studytherelationshipbetweenviolence and internationalmigration in 4 Latinamericancountries. Theystatethatrisingviolence has reducedthelikelihood of emigrationfromMexico, Costa Rica and Guatemala. Theysaythatonly in Nicaragua, lethalviolenceseemspositivelycorrelatedwithout-migration. • Shellman and Stewart (2007) predictforcedinternationalmigrationfromHaitibypredicting civil violence, pooreconomicconditions and foreigninterventions. • Stanley (1987) uses time-series analysistoconcludethatpoliticalviolencewasanimportantmotivation of Salvadoranswhomigratedtothe US sincethebeggining of 1979. He dropscontrolsforeconomicfactors, whichmayexaggeratetheeffect of insecurityoninternationalemigration.

11. Theeoretical framework • Migration decisions from developing countries are typically made by families, not individuals, and families migrate not only to maximize earnings but also to minimize risks (Stark, 1985). • Economic conditions in developing countries are volatile, and families face serious risks to their well-being from many sources –natural disasters, political upheavals or economic recessions among others (Massey, 1994). • The literature on forced migration generally distinguishes between three kinds of determinants of movements: root causes, proximate conditions and intervening factors (Bohra-Mishra and Massey, 2011). • Root causes.- Poverty, along with unemployment and low wages, yields economic hardships that prompt people to look elsewhere for material sustenance or advancement. • Proximate conditions.- The proximate cause of migration of central interest here is the intensity of violence in municipality i • Intervening factors.- The most important intervening factor influencing the migration decision are the social ties that migrants constitute with other migrants from their families or a close circle of friends.

12. Empirical analysis. National data

13. Empirical analysis. National data

14. Estimations

15. Empirical analysis- National data

16. Empirical analysis – National data

17. Empirical analysis- National data

18. Empirical analysis- Border municipalities data

19. Empirical analysis- Border municipalities data

20. Empirical analysis- Border municipalities data

21. Empirical Analysis – Household level data

22. Concluding remarks • Theory and commonsensepredict a positive relationshipbetweenviolence and internationalmigration, butitisnotalwaysthe case. • Lowviolenceintensity can evendecreasemigrationprobabilities. • Violence and International migrationseemtohave a non-linear relationship in theMexican case, butthisisnotconfirmed in theregressionanalysis. • Data at a municipalitylevel show a positive correlationbetweenviolence and remmittances, but a negativecorrelationbetweenviolence and thepresence of migrants in dwellings (eitherpermanentor circular). • Whentheanalysisisperformedusingonly data fromnorthernbordermunicipalities, violenceappearspositivelycorrelatedbothwithremmittances and permanentmigration, buttheeffectistoosmall. • Thehouseholdlevelanalysissuggests a negativecorrelationbetweenviolence and internationalmigration.

23. Concluding remarks • Thehighviolenceintensity in thenorthernMexicanstatesseemstobepromotinginternationalemigration, accordingtothemunicipalitylevel data analysis. • Fortherest of the country, evidencesuggeststhatviolenceisnot a forcebehindmigrationtothe US, and thehouseholdlevelanalysisevenindicatesthatmigration has droppedduetomoderatelevels of publicinsecurity. • Security measuresshouldbeimplementedtoprotectthepopulation in themostviolentstates of the country, whichhappentobe in thenorthernpart of theterritory. • Peopleaffectedbyviolence and that can migratetothe US come fromhighereducationorincomelevelgroups, so thereceivingcommunities can bebenefitedbythepresence of positivelyselectedmigrants. • The US authoritieshaveto decide iftheyreceivepositivelyselectedmigrantscomingfromnorthernstates, oriftheysupportMexico in itseffortstoprotectpeopleaffectedbypublicinsecurity, so theydon´tleavethe country.