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Global challenges, EUropean answers, CEE prospects

Global challenges, EUropean answers, CEE prospects. Tamás Szemlér Ph.D, scientific deputy director Institute for World Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences 6th DRC Summer School on Regional Co-operation Budapest, 5-12 July 2009. Global challenges. Financial and economic crisis

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Global challenges, EUropean answers, CEE prospects

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  1. Global challenges,EUropean answers,CEE prospects Tamás Szemlér Ph.D, scientific deputy director Institute for World Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences 6th DRC Summer School on Regional Co-operation Budapest, 5-12 July 2009

  2. Global challenges • Financial and economic crisis • About the nature of the crisis – is there something new under the Sun? • Irregularity or normal feature of the system? • Short and long term effects • Systemic changes? • The role of the state? • Beyond the economy

  3. EUropean answers • Adequate reaction speed? • Global challenge – existing EU rules/regulations – basically national answers • Logical? • Efficient? • Costs? • Danger? • Alternatives?

  4. CEE prospects: questions for the long run • What are the „national economies”? • What possibilities are there for the adaptation to the international environment? • What factors do strengthen/soften the external effects? • What are the consequences… • …on the macroeconomic level? • …in the microsphere? • …in the societies? • …in the political systems?

  5. Prophecies? – Be careful… • „Fitch Affirms Lehman Brothers Derivative Products at 'AAA'; Stable Outlook (Mon Jan 28, 2008)” • „(…) LBDP's 'AAA' rating is based on its conservative capitalization and collateralization, high-quality counterparties, and restrictive operating guidelines. LBDP is a bankruptcy-remote entity and passes market risk emanating from its transactions to LBSF via 'back-to-back' transactions. Credit risk is retained by LBDP and is supported by a high level of capital in liquid instruments maintained at a third-party custodian, as well as by the strict operating guidelines in place.(…)” Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS212058+28-Jan-2008+BW20080128

  6. …but sooner or later, the crisis will be over • No production factors destroyed • Very different from e.g. an after-war situation • The importance of psychological factors • What are the actual expectations based on? • Statistical effects • Late 2009: the reference period (e.g. for Q4/Q4 comparisons) will already be a „bad one” • The statistical effects can substantially help reach the turning point • After the crisis: economic policies matter • What was the state of a given country when the crisis broke out – and in what state will that country be at the end of the crisis? • CEE countries are not uniform!

  7. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! Questions? Remarks? - Feel free to contact me: tszemler@vki.hu Visit also our website: www.vki.hu

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