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Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMS

Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMS. Johannes Kaiser Tony Hollingsworth, Martin Schultz. Overview of Presentation. Motivation Wildfire emissions are a major boundary condition for atmospheric composition modelling, thus GEMS. GEMS is just starting.

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Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMS

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  1. Wildfire Emission Modelling in GEMS Johannes Kaiser Tony Hollingsworth, Martin Schultz

  2. Overview of Presentation • Motivation • Wildfire emissions are a major boundary condition for atmospheric composition modelling, thus GEMS. • GEMS is just starting. • Scientific development, collaborations, and additional funds will be needed to do a good job. • Contents • GEMS Overview • GEMS Requirements on Wildfire Emissions • Existing Components • GEMS Wildfire Strategy Proposal • Summary

  3. GEMS Overview

  4. GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space and in-situ data Coordinator A.Hollingsworth(ECMWF) Projects Leadership Greenhouse Gases P.Rayner (F) Reactive Gases G.Brasseur (D) Aerosol O.Boucher (UK) Regional Air Quality V-H.Peuch (F) Validation H.Eskes (NL) Global Production System A.Simmons (ECMWF), GMES Integrated Project, 12.5MEuro, 30 Institutes, 14 Countries www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS

  5. Objectives of GEMS • Global operational system for monitoring & forecasting composition ready by 2009 • Combine remotely sensed and in-situ data • GREENHOUSE GASES (initially including CO2, and progressively adding CH4, N2O, plus SF6 and Radon to check advection accuracy), • REACTIVE GASES (initially including O3, NO2, SO2, CO, HCHO, and gradually widening the suite of species), • AEROSOLS (initially a 15-parameter representation, later ~ 30) • Support operational Regional Air-Quality Forecasts • Global Retrospective Analyses 2000-2007 • Variational Inversion Techniques to estimate sources & sinks of CO2 and other trace constituents

  6. GEMS organisation in 6 sub-projects Reactive Gases Greenhouse Gases Aerosol Regional Air Quality reactive gases greenhouse gases Validation regional air quality aerosols

  7. Schedule of GEMS Work at Central Site

  8. Requirements on Wildfires

  9. Wildfire Emission Description • Wildfires constitute a major boundary condition for atmospheric composition modelling. • GEMS requirements • Amount emitted: aerosol, trace gases FRE / AFL / emission factors / burnt area / hot spot • Location, Time burnt area / hot spot • Injection height meteo / FRE • Cross-cutting • Global aerosol and trace gases, regional air quality: consistency, work reuse! • Forestry, vegetation monitoring: collaboration with geoland and others!

  10. Schedule of GEMS Wildfire Requirements

  11. Existing Components Models, observations

  12. Existing Emission Models • Missoula Fire Sciences Lab, USDA Forest Service?

  13. Use of Related Observations in GEMS • FRE amount, time, loc. Yes Yes no, to be drived

  14. Strategy Proposal

  15. GEMS Baseline Approach (AER) • GWEM for amount [Hoelzemann et al. 2004] • BUOYANT for injection height [Nikmo et al. 1999]

  16. Extended Treatment of Wildfire in GEMS Partial funding

  17. Single Evolving Fire Assimilation System (FAS) Single, consistent processing for all GEMS subprojects Evolution from climatology to existing products to fire assimilation hidden behind constant interface t fire climatology GEMS greenhouse gases land cover climatology Fire Assimilation System reactive gases satellite fire product global fire emissions satellite radiance aerosols geoland, … land cover product regional air quality fire product

  18. Summary • GEMS combines satellite and in-situ observations in a operational global data assimilation / forecast system. • GEMS will provide re-analyses and forecasts of the atmospheric composition, i.e. aerosols and trace gases. • The emission by wildfires of is one of several important cross-cutting issues in GEMS. • The emission by wildfires is ultimately needed globally in near-real time as well as with a time lag. • No suitable wildfire emission product is available. • A phased development strategy for a global fire assimilation system and wildfire emission modelling has been proposed. • Feedback through inverse modelling is ultimately expected. • The strategy is currently being discussed and we are grateful for comments, suggestions, collaborations, and contributions.

  19. More Info • www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS • www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/HALO • j.kaiser@ecmwf.int

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