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Climate Change & Need of Climate Services to Water Sector

Climate Change & Need of Climate Services to Water Sector. Professor Ashvani Gosain , IIT Delhi & INRM Consultants. BRAIN STORMING WORKSHOP ON “CLIMATE SERVICES: STAKE HOLDER PERSPECTIVE. Climate Information System climatevulnerability.in Web portal in collaboration with GIZ.

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Climate Change & Need of Climate Services to Water Sector

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  1. Climate Change & Need of Climate Services to Water Sector Professor AshvaniGosain, IIT Delhi & INRM Consultants BRAIN STORMING WORKSHOP ON “CLIMATE SERVICES: STAKE HOLDER PERSPECTIVE

  2. Climate Information Systemclimatevulnerability.in Web portal in collaboration with GIZ • Web Based climate information tool provides access to country data (India) related to climate change • Query, map, compare, chart and summarize key climate and climate-related information • Derived from gridded rainfall and temperature data • Historical based on IMD gridded data • Climate change based on multiple regional climate model outputs for 2 RCP scenarios • 29 states and 7 Union Territories of India covered • Statistics include • Historical: Mean, Trend • Projected: Mean, Trend, Delta (change from baseline)) • Climate Extreme indices: Precipitation (10), Temperature (16) • Climate profiles are intended for practitioners • to identify key climate related vulnerabilities and risks • assist them to better integrate climate resilience in development planning and operations

  3. Projections/Climate Extreme • Time period • Baseline, BL (1981-2010), • Near-Term, NT (2011-40), • Mid-Century, MC (2021-2050), • Mid-Term (2041-70) MT and • End-Century, EC (2071-2100) • Annual, seasonal (JF, MAM, JJAS and OND) and monthly period • Mean and Trend shown • Spatial variability across districts observed easily • Comparison: The variability across two models for precipitation and temperature can be observed for a given state

  4. Chart View Panel Table View Panel Map View Panel Overview – Historical • Historical Precipitation and Temperature • Gridded • State wise at District Level • Statistics: Mean and Trend • Frequency: Annual, Seasonal and Monthly • Elements: Maps, Charts and Tables • Map with colour and Tool Tip (District with value) • Graphs with all districts and state average • Table with data

  5. Historical Temperature and Precipitation - Gridded Gridded Mean Annual Max Temperature Trend Annual Max Temperature

  6. Historical Temperature and Precipitation - District Gridded Mean Annual Max Temperature Trend Annual Max Temperature

  7. Climate Change Projections • Thematic Map with Tool Tip • Long term monthly values for all models and ensemble mean at State level (Model uncertainties) • Table with data • Bias corrected climate projections (RCMs) • 2 IPCC Scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP8.5) Projected Mean Annual Max Temperature 2 RCP scenarios Baseline + 4 Future periods Mean, Trend, Change from BL 10 RCM + Ensemble mean

  8. Inter State: MP-HP Comparison • Comparison between • States • Models • Scenarios • Time periods Inter Model: MME-ACCESS Inter Period: NT-EC

  9. State - District Vulnerability Outputs • Under GIZ –MoEF bilateral cooperation (CCA RAI-II) • vulnerability assessment for water resources to climate change • Himachal Pradesh, Punjab Tamil Nadu, and Telangana

  10. Climate Services related to Water Sector • Major ones are • Real-time flood forecasting • Seasonal flow forecasting • Urban flood warning • Agricultural prediction • Drought assessment • Water quality assessment • Surface water groundwater interaction • Environmental impact assessment

  11. Streamflow Forecasting in collaboration with IMD • Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) uses current weather conditions as input to mathematical models of the atmosphere to predict the evolution of weather systems • Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) is generated from NWP model • NWP QPF has potential to extend streamflow forecast leadtime in the range of a few days • Quality of forecast depends mainly on the quality of NWP output • Lack of ensemble for uncertainty

  12. Short-term Forecast Modeling • Catchment Hydrological Model Driven by Meteorological Model • Reservoir/ diversion Operation • Inflow to Reservoir using Catchment Hydrological Model (Calibrated) • Reservoir/ diversion Operation Simulation • Flood Emergency Operation • Dissemination

  13. Mahanadi Basin Early Warning System

  14. Hydrological model - SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) • Features • Physically based • Distributed model • Continuous time model (long term yield model) • Uses readily available data • Used for long term impact studies

  15. Data used • DEM • SRTM – 30m resolution • Landuse (NRSA 2007-08) • Soil – NBSSLUP/FAO • Weather: IMD gridded rainfall, temperature • Forecast: • IMD WRF (9 km grid) – 3 days forecast • IMD GFS (25 km grid) - 6 days forecast • Global Forecast System (GFS) forecast precipitation data at 37.5km resolution, 6 days forecast • Observed rainfall: Chhatisgarh, Odisha, (Revenue department) Hydrology Project 2 • Reservoir characteristics and operation rules • Observed Stream Gauge and Discharge • CWC and Odisha State Water Resources Department

  16. Input data used for SWAT modelling setup for Mahanadi River basin

  17. Observed Weather Station Locations • IMD gridded rainfall • 197 grids • Daily from 1951-2016 • IMD gridded Maximum and minimum temperature grids • 12 grids • Daily from 1951-2016

  18. Major Projects Implemented • 220 projects • 75 major/medium • 23 major projects

  19. SWAT – Validation Locations • 23 calibration/ validation locations

  20. SWAT – Calibration • 23 validation locations * -ve is over simulation

  21. Model Calibration Bamnidihi – Hasdeo Basantpur - Mahanadi NSE:0.594, PBIAS: 7% NSE:0.91, PBIAS: 4.6% Jondhra- Seonath Salebhata- Ong NSE:0.87, PBIAS: -6.7% NSE:0.87, PBIAS: -0.5%

  22. Rainfall Forecast Products Used • WRF (IMD) • GFS (IMD) • GFS (NOAA)

  23. IMD Forecast • IMD is sharing forecast directly for 2 models • WRF Model • 9 km resolution • Daily rainfall • ftp transfer • GFS Model • 12.5 km resolution • Daily rainfall • ftp transfer • NOAA GFS Model • 37.5 km resolution • Daily rainfall • ftp transfer

  24. Example: Forecast Issued – IMD WRF

  25. Forecast Issued – IMD GFS

  26. Forecast Issued – NOAA GFS

  27. Summary of Forecast Hirakud Inflow Forecast Inflow Forecast at other locations

  28. IMD WRF and GFS Forecast Mahanadi21-Sep-2017 Issued by FMO, Bhubaneswar

  29. Multi Model Uncertainty Issue Forecast Valid for Aug 28, 2017 Lower Mahanadi = 10 mm Upper Mahanadi = 19 mm Lower Mahanadi = 21 mm Upper Mahanadi = 28 mm

  30. Magnitude and Timing Issue

  31. Byproducts • There are many byproducts because of continuous hydrological simulation • Farmer’s advice • Water quality assessment • Environmental impact assessment • Operation of water bodies • Climate change impact assessment

  32. Conclusions • Formulation of products for climate services • Integration through sectors • Effective feedback to policy instruments

  33. Thank You

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