Range Wrangler I: Guided Tour and Analyses of New World Mammal Distributions

1. Range Wrangler I: Guided Tour and Analyses of New World Mammal Distributions Nick Gotelli Department of Biology University of Vermont Burlington, VT 05405 NCEAS, October 11, 2008

2. Range Wrangler 1 • Inputs & Model Structure • Goodness of Fit Statistics • Independent Origins Models • Ancestry Models • Best Model Comparisons • Applications to Other Taxa • Conclusions

3. THANK YOU To Thiago Rangel!

4. Range Wrangler 1 • Inputs & Model Structure • Goodness of Fit Statistics • Independent Origins Models • Ancestry Models • Best Model Comparisons • Applications to Other Taxa • Conclusions

5. New World Mammals Data Set • Gridded Domain: 383 2° x 2° grid cells • Environmental Layers: MinTemp, NPP, PET, AET • 879 species • Species Density: 11 to 228 species/grid cell • Geographic Ranges: 1 to 350 grid cells

8. Range Wrangler 1 • Inputs & Model Structure • Goodness of Fit Statistics • Independent Origins Models • Ancestry Models • Best Model Comparisons • Applications to Other Taxa • Conclusions

10. r2 = 0.08 Slope = 0.60 Intercept = 54.5 AICc = 4147

11. r2 = 0.08 Slope = 0.60 Intercept = 54.5 AICc = 4147 r2 = 1.0 Slope = 1.0 Intercept = 0.0 AICc = 2.0

19. Range Wrangler 1 • Inputs & Model Structure • Goodness of Fit Statistics • Independent Origins Models • Ancestry Models • Best Model Comparisons • Applications to Other Taxa • Conclusions

20. Model Parameters • SEED CELL • Equiprobable • Proportional to Environmental Variable (linear) • Single Cell (= center of origin)

21. Center of Origin Model

22. Model Parameters • DISPERSAL DISTANCE • 1.0 TO 512.0 standard deviations of map cell distance

23. Model Parameters • TARGET CELL • Equiprobable • Proportional to Environmental Variable (Linear) • Proportional to Similarity of Source Cell (Niche)

24. Model Parameters • SEED CELL (Equiprobable, Linear, Single Cell) • DISPERSAL DISTANCE (1,2,4,8,16,32,64,128,256,512) • TARGET CELL (Equiprobable, Linear, Niche)3 x 10 x 3 = 90 orthogonal parameter settings

31. Df Sum of Sq Mean Sq F Value Pr(F) Seed.Cell 2 2.256552 1.128276 81.90621 0.00000000 Target.Cell 2 1.379895 0.689947 50.08612 0.00000000 DD 1 0.174349 0.174349 12.65670 0.00062169 DDSquared 1 0.072209 0.072209 5.24197 0.02458728 Residuals 83 1.143343 0.013775

32. Df Sum of Sq Mean Sq F Value Pr(F) Seed.Cell 2 2.256552 1.128276 75.74525 0.0000000000 Target.Cell 2 1.379895 0.689947 46.31866 0.0000000000 Seed.Cell:Target.Cell 4 0.353634 0.088408 5.93518 0.0003066929 Residuals 81 1.206549 0.014896

37. Df Sum of Sq Mean Sq F Value Pr(F) Seed.Cell 2 27.62234 13.81117 36.27824 0.0000000 Target.Cell 2 3.97279 1.98640 5.21773 0.0073368 DD 1 0.87346 0.87346 2.29435 0.1336450 DDSquared 1 0.00026 0.00026 0.00068 0.9792425 Residuals 83 31.59820 0.38070

38. Df Sum of Sq Mean Sq F Value Pr(F) Seed.Cell 2 27.62234 13.81117 34.82090 0.000000000 Target.Cell 2 3.97279 1.98640 5.00813 0.008898663 Seed.Cell:Target.Cell 4 11.00685 2.75171 6.93765 0.000074570 Residuals 81 32.12739 0.39663

39. Best 12 Models Based on Slope

40. Best 12 Models Based on Slope Environmental Effects on Speciation Short Dispersal Distances Environmental or Niche Effects on Dispersal

41. Best 12 Models Based on Slope

42. Worst 12 Models Based on Slope

43. Worst 12 Models Based on Slope Center of Origin or Environmental Effects on Speciation Long or Short Dispersal Distances Equiprobable Dispersal

44. Best 12 Models Based on r2

45. Best 12 Models Based on r2 Environmental Effects on Speciation Long Dispersal Distances Environmental Effects on Dispersal

46. Worst 12 Models Based on r2

47. Worst 12 Models Based on r2 Center of Origin or Equiprobable Speciation Long Dispersal Distances Equiprobable Dispersal

48. Single “Best” Model based on Slope, r2, and Residuals

50. Residuals From “Best” Model