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IOM – UNFPA Expert Workshop: International Dialogue on Migration - Bangkok, 2007

“Advancing human security through knowledge-based approaches to reducing vulnerability and environmental risks “. IOM – UNFPA Expert Workshop: International Dialogue on Migration - Bangkok, 2007. Impact of Gradual Environmental Change on Migration: a Global perspective of Trends and Solutions

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IOM – UNFPA Expert Workshop: International Dialogue on Migration - Bangkok, 2007

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  1. “Advancing human security through knowledge-based approaches to reducing vulnerability and environmental risks“ Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007

  2. IOM – UNFPA Expert Workshop: International Dialogue on Migration - Bangkok, 2007 Impact of Gradual Environmental Change on Migration: a Global perspective of Trends and Solutions Prof. Dr. Ing. Janos J. Bogardi Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007

  3. Starting Statements • Climate has never been stable but we did not really notice. • Land degradation started with agriculture, irrigation several thousand years ago. • Urbanisation was seen as a sign of development. • Migration is a steady component of human history. …but things are spiraling out of control Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007

  4. IPCC - Contribution of Working Group 1 to 4th Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis - February 2007 Source: IPCC 2007 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis - Summary for Policy Makers. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Formallyapproved at the 10th Session of Working Group I of the IPCC, Paris, February 2007, p.6 Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007

  5. IPCC - Contribution of Working Group 1 to 4th Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis - February 2007 Source: IPCC 2007 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis - Summary for Policy Makers. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Formallyapproved at the 10th Session of Working Group I of the IPCC, Paris, February 2007, p.3 Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007

  6. IPCC - Contribution of Working Group 1 to 4th Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis - February 2007 Source: IPCC 2007 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis - Summary for Policy Makers. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Formallyapproved at the 10th Session of Working Group I of the IPCC, Paris, February 2007, p.15 Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007

  7. Millenium Ecosystem Assessment 2005 • 15 of 24 ecosystem services are degraded or utilised in an unsustainable way, mainly by humans for the supply of specific services. • This could accelerate the degradation of ecosystems - scientific evidence still required. • The poor and especially rural poor are suffering most by the decline in ecosystem services. • 2 billion people living in dry regions are extremely vulnerable to the loss of ecosystem services. Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007

  8. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005 Some Conclusions on Drylands • 10 to 20 percent of drylands are already degraded. • Pressure is increasing on dryland ecosystems for providing services such as food, and water for humans & livestock, irrigation, and sanitation. • Climate change is likely to increase water scarcity in regions that are already under water stress. • Droughts are becoming more frequent and their continuous reoccurrence can overcome the coping mechanisms of communities. Source: MA. 2005: Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Desertification Synthesis. World Resources Institute, Washington, DC. Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007

  9. Global Desertification Vulnerability Source: USDA-NRCS.http://soils.usda.gov/use/worldsoils/mapindex/desert.html Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007

  10. The Unstoppable Trend of Urbanisation • The accelerating spiral In 2000 16 cities had more than 10 million inhabitants: 4% of the world population • How many people must remain in the rural environment? • Good Estimate: % of people needed to produce our food (could go down to 5%??) Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007

  11. Income in small cities - Russia Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007

  12. Income in major cities - Russia RF 2001: average income 2877,3 rMSL: 1500 r Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007

  13. Economic Community Food Political Health Personal Environmental Human Security is at Stake Societal activities Environmental Degradation swift natural hazard events climate change variability and change Sustainable Human Development Freedom from Want Freedom from Fear Freedom from Hazard Impacts Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007

  14. The Widening Gaps: Pull and Push Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007

  15. Migration! • Coping with global inequalities • Voluntary or forced? • How far environmentally driven? Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007

  16. Tracing the Tracks: • Where are the migrants coming from? • Where will the migrants be coming from? • Where are they going? Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007

  17. Net Emigration Territory size shows the relative quantity of net emigration in all territories (emigration less immigration). Source: SASI Group (University of Sheffield), Newman (University of Michigan) 2006, Net Emigration, http://www.worldmapper.org/posters/worldmapper_map18_ver5.pdf, accessed 15 February 2007 Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007

  18. Net Immigration Territory size shows the relative quantity of net immigration in all territories (immigration less emigration). Source: SASI Group (University of Sheffield), Newman (University of Michigan) 2006,Net Immigration http://www.worldmapper.org/posters/worldmapper_map17_ver5.pdf, accessed 15 Feb 2007 Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007

  19. World Wealth Levels per Capita Source: WIDER 2006 Wider Angle, No. 2, p4, World Institute for Development Economics Research, UNU, Finland Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007

  20. World Wealth Levels per Capita Source: WIDER 2006 Wider Angle, No. 2, p6, World Institute for Development Economics Research, UNU, Finland Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007

  21. World Population Density and Potential Sea Level Rise up to 1 metre Africa: Nigeria, Cameroon, Gabon, Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania Asia: Russia, Vietnam, India, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Indonesia Australia & West Pacific: Papua New Guinea, Australia, Fiji and Sth Pacific Islands Europe & Middle East: Netherlands, Greenland, Ukraine and UK coastline South America: Venezuela, Guyan, Suriname, French Guiana, Brazil and Chile North America: USA, Canada and Cuba Source of sea-level rise date: http://www.geo.arizona.edu/dgesl/research/other/climate_change_and_sea_level/sea_level_rise/sea_level_rise_old.htm#images Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007

  22. The “guiding lights” Target zones of internal displacements and international migration Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007

  23. Migrations due to Mixture of “Push” and “Pull” Factors • Some root causes include (Boswell and Crisp, 2004; Hatton and Williamson, 2003; Schwartz and Notoni, 1994): • Economic factors (poverty, unemployment, wage disparities) • Social factors (poor welfare or education; demography) • Environmental factors (degradation of ecosystems) • Degraded security conditions (disrespect for human rights) • Existence of migrant networks Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007

  24. Migration: Some Potential Environmental Drivers • Droughts and loss of land productivity can become important factors triggering the movement of people from drylands to other areas(MA, 2005), particularly oncecoping mechanisms and adaptation strategies are impaired by the loss of ecosystem services. • Sea level rise and environmental calamities may trigger migration. • Disasters of “natural” origin may prompt people to leave. Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007

  25. Debate over the Concept of Environmental Migrants / Refugees • Critics (not exhaustive list): • Multiple “push” & “pull” factors so why highlight the environmental component? • Poor definition of what is an Environmental Migrant/Refugee • Risk of watering-down 1951 Convention relating to the Status of Refugees • Use the argument put forward by others that desertification, land degradation, climate change and sea level rise are not as serious problems as characterised by certain “lobbies” Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007

  26. Adopting a Precautionary Principle • “…estimates and projections of environmental refugees are based almost entirely on anecdotal evidence (…) [but] it is important not to trivialize the role environmental change and resource depletion may play in population movement.”(Lonergan and Swain 1999:2) • Actions above all are needed to tackle the issue: • Actions related to the reduction of desertification rates and climate change (considering all the dimensions) and when possible implement restoration and adaptation strategies • Policies and actions that deal with the immediate and/or forthcoming issue of environmental migration / refugees • The two need to be further developed in parallel Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007

  27. Suggestion: Establish an Intergovernmental Panel on Land Degradation • Concept along the lines of the IPCC: • Assess scientific, technical and socio-economic information to understand: • risks linked to human-induced land degradation • potential impacts • options for adaptation and mitigation • Scientific approach, not advocacy • Regular assessments of state of knowledge on our lands and their soils including the social implications Source: Vlek. 2005: Nothing begets nothing. The creeping disaster of land degradation. InterSecTions 1, UNU-EHS Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007

  28. Proposed Categories of Environmental Migrants Environmentally motivated migrants “pre-empting the worst” • Individuals “may” leave a deteriorating environment which could still be rehabilitated • Both temporary and permanent displacement / migration • Examples: depopulation of old industrial and mining areas, most rural exoduses • Case: rural exodus from Northeast Brazil to Sao Paolo due to long dry spells Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007

  29. Proposed Categories of Environmental MigrantsCont’d… Environmentally forced migrants “avoiding the worst” • Individuals “have to” leave due to loss of livelihood • Mainly permanent displacement / migration • Examples: displacement or migration due to sea-level rise or loss of topsoil • Case: out migration from the Sahel zone of Africa due to desertification Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007

  30. Proposed Categories of Environmental MigrantsCont’d… Environmental refugees “fleeing the worst” • Individuals “flee” rather than “leave” • Includes disaster refugees • Both temporary and permanent displacement / migration • Resource base (ecosystem) may be severely affected • Examples: displacement or migration due to floods, extensive drought • Case: exodus due to Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans 2005 Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007

  31. Five Pronged Approach • Science: • Establish and implement programs to allow a better understanding between the cause-effects mechanisms between degradation of ecosystems and social systems • Develop proper definitions of environmental migrations, environmental migrant/refugee. • Provide long-term, sustained funding for research. • Awareness: • Raise knowledge-based public and political awareness and its social, economic, environmental dimensions Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007

  32. Five Pronged Approach (cont‘d) • Legislation: • Establish and implement a framework of recognition of environmental migrants such as in a specific Convention or in parts of Intergovernmental Environmental Treaties • Humanitarian aid: • Empower the United Nations system and other major assistance organisations to provide aid to environmental migrants / refugees • Institutional: • Devise concepts and establish institutions that are able to assist the flux of environmental migrants Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007

  33. Migration: a new look at an old problem within the UN system • 1994: Re-thinking of migrations originated at the International Conference on Population and Development. • 2003: High-Level Dialogue on international migrations and development. • 2003: Launch of Global Commission on International Migration. • 2005: Establishment of a high-level inter-institutional group to ensure effective institutional response to international migration. UN, 2006 Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007

  34. Migration: a new look at an old problem within the UN system – cont’d • 2006: Appointment of Special Representative on International Migration and Development. • 2006: Outcome of the High-Level Dialogue - proposal by the Secretary-General to establish a consultative Forum to offer Governments a venue to discuss issues related to international migration and development. • 2007: IOM – UNFPA Expert Workshop: International Dialogue on Migration – Bangkok, 22-23 February. • 2007: UNU, UNHCR, GEF-UNDP information event on “Environmental Refugees: the Forgotten Migrants” in New York, UN Headquarters, 16 May. UN, 2006 Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007

  35. Appeal Enhance the ongoing international debate on migration with the environmental component! Thank you. Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007

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