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Leadership change in Japan Policy Agenda of new Government Noriko YASUE, Ritsumikan University

Leadership change in Japan Policy Agenda of new Government Noriko YASUE, Ritsumikan University. 0. Government change in Japan and PM Abe Abenomics Diplomatic issues TPP Asia-Europe cooperation and Japan-EU relations. 0.0 Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Abe government Ⅰ 9/2006-9/2007

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Leadership change in Japan Policy Agenda of new Government Noriko YASUE, Ritsumikan University

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  1. Leadership change in JapanPolicy Agenda of new GovernmentNoriko YASUE, Ritsumikan University

  2. 0. Government change in Japan and PM Abe • Abenomics • Diplomatic issues • TPP • Asia-Europe cooperation and Japan-EU relations

  3. 0.0 Prime Minister Shinzo Abe • Abe government Ⅰ 9/2006-9/2007 • Abe government Ⅱ12/2012- • grandson of former PM Nobusuke Kishi (1957-60) who had high diplomatic capability, re-establish the Japan-US Alliance and Japanese diplomatic principles. • strong commitment to resolving abductions by N. Korea. • prudent behavior for Yasukuni. • conservative nationalist but also realist.

  4. 0.1 Government Change in 2009 from 2006 to 2012, short-lived cabinets gave negative influence over international relations. Why DPcould be in office in 2009? -“Change” was needed to the LDP’s 1955 regime. 20 years after the end of cold war, and collapsing of the bubble economy, LDP could not have changed over its policies to the new situation.

  5. 0.10.2 Government Change in 2012 back to the LDP • DPJ appealed to the peoples “strong political leadership”, criticizing LDP’s collusion with bureaucrats, but failed. • Premise of DPJ’s policy is turned over by the Tohoku earthquake. • disagreements on main diplomatic issues within the DP government, and worsened relation with US and neighbors.

  6. 0.3 Policy Agenda • Way out of depression: Abenomics • Diplomatic performance: Stabilizing East Asia. • Sharing the prosperity of Asia among nations. RCEP and/or TPP. • Cooperation with Europe; EU, ASEM, NATO.

  7. 1.1 Abenomics: a way out from depression 1)monetary policy: radical quantitative easing 2)fiscal policy: fiscal spending increased by 2% of GDP 3)economic growth strategy ・inflation targeting at 2% annual rate ・correction of excessive yen appreciation ・expansion of public investment ・buying operations of construction bonds by BOJ

  8. Abenomics

  9. 1.2 Reaction and effectiveness of Abenomics <Reaction> ・welcomed by most of American economists also Japanese manufacturing enterprises. ・CBs of China and Korea criticized yen’s depreciation. ・German CB expressed their concern for inflation. <effectiveness on real economy> ・time lag to see the effectiveness on employment, salary and purchasing power. ・gains will not return to workers but stockholders? ・risky, but optimum way to recover economically?

  10. 2.0 Definite aims for diplomatic Issues • Revaluation of US-Japan Alliance and solving problem of Futenma-base in Okinawa. • Re-establish Japan- China relation by “mutually beneficial relationship based on common strategic interests” , which was proposed to Beijing, by PM Abe in 2006 for the first time. • Cooperation with international society to stop provocation by North Korea. • Solving maritime issues by International law

  11. 2.1 Reinforcement of security system PM Abe promotes, • The Establishment of Japanese NSC (National Security Council) • Reinforcement the Self-Defense Forces • Joint declaration with NATO • Revision of the Japanese Constitution sensitive for East Asia and also domestically argument First step Art.96 *draft constitution is on the website of LDP

  12. 2.2 Historical Issues • Deep rooted historical issues with China and Korea Japan-China joint history research group (2006-2010) finished up their Report, but it wasn’t disclosed as a whole. It covers not only modern history but from the ancient era. *English translation(partial) is available from the website

  13. 3.0 the TPP（TransPacific Partnership) ・hot topic in Japanese society , it divides public opinion. ・LDP was not so positive in the period of the election campaign in 2012. agriculture, medical care, dispute settlement system are in question. Radical reform of agricultural policy is needed. ・PM Abe decided to join TPP negotiation. ・Political implication of TPP are more important.

  14. 3.1 East Asia regional cooperation Multi-layered regional frameworks; ASEAN +3+3, EAS, AFTA, APEC,ASEM etc. ASEAN is in the driver’s seat of East-Asia cooperation. ASEAN ‘s initiative to RCEP in 2012 (Regional comprehensive on economic partnership) 5 (ASEAN+1FTA ) Japan, S.Korea, China, NZ/Austraria, India

  15. Multi-layered Frameworks in Asia

  16. TPP and RCEP

  17. 3.2 TPP and RCEP RCEP and ASEAN+6 are compatible with the TPP ? Japan seeks both of them to have synergy effect. Paradox :TPP has a risk to divide ASEAN Into two groups. US’s commitment in the region is also indispensable for Japan. But there are strong opposition for TPP not only economic reasons but political one.

  18. Estimation of effects on growth of GDP by FTA (trillion yen for 10 years) Webpage of LDP

  19. 4.0 Asia Europe Cooperation Characteristics of East Asia Regionalism compare to European Integration ・No political will for political integration. ・No common threats but conflicts among them. ・Not seeking common values but strategic cooperation for win-win. ・Open regionalism toward the 3rd countries. ・Inter-Region cooperation as APEC,TPP, ASEM are developing in parallel.

  20. 4.1 ASEM (Asia Europe Meeting) Inter-Regional Cooperation since 1996 49 member states and 2 org. different from APEC, ASEM has meetings of Minister of Education ,Culture, Environment Discussing not only trade issues but also universal values: human rights e.g. against child labour, rule of law e.g. protecting intellectual property , immigration, cultural aspects of globalization etc. European normative power can contribute to Asian regionalism But possibly too big of a framework to deal with

  21. 4.2 Japan-EU EPA 1970 s -80s “Fortress Europe” vs neo-mercantilism 1991 Japan-EU Joint Declaration Japan-EU cooperation into new phase 2010 Japan-EU de-regulation dialogue 2013 start negotiation Japan-EU EPA issues: medicine, medical equipment, public purchasing EU will not benefit much from tariff reduction in the Japanese market , but seeking abolition of non-tariff barriers. Japan seeking to recover disadvantages in relation to Korea in EU market.

  22. Number of FTAs and Ratio IMF trade statistic, 2011

  23. 4.3 Japan-EU political dialogue Alongside trade negotiation, Political dialogue is important based on “common values” e.g. Joint proposal at UNGA on -Human rights issues in North Korea, every year Unfortunately, PM Abe is occupied by Asia-Pacific relations for the moment. Japan-EU political cooperation may contribute to bringing normative aspects in Asia and global governance.

  24. Thank you for your attention

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