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20 years of Integrated Assessment Modelling for the Convention

20 years of Integrated Assessment Modelling for the Convention. Leen Hordijk, Markus Amann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Integrated assessment modelling as a science-policy interface. Integrated assessment modelling as a science-policy interface. WG Strategies.

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20 years of Integrated Assessment Modelling for the Convention

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  1. 20 years of Integrated Assessment Modelling for the Convention Leen Hordijk, Markus AmannInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

  2. Integrated assessment modelling as a science-policy interface

  3. Integrated assessment modelling as a science-policy interface WG Strategies WG WG Effects EMEP TFEIPStrategies EGTEI↓ ↓ ↓ = * * ↑ ↑ TF Integrated Assessment Modelling

  4. A unique dialogue between negotiators and modellers

  5. /dev/tty> International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) RAINS 1.1 (1984) ========================================================= RRRR AA III NN N SSSS R R A A I N N N S RRRR AAAAAA I N N N SSSS R R A A I N N N S R R AA AA III N NN SSSS ========================================================= Please treat all results with caution! Hit RETURN to continue …

  6. Two key messages emerging from the dialog between negotiators and scientists • From the negotiators to the modellers:Do cost-effectiveness instead of cost-benefit analysis!

  7. 1992: Cost-effectiveness analysis for Second Sulfur Protocol

  8. Two key messages emerging from the dialog between negotiators and scientists • From the negotiators to the modellers:Do cost-effectiveness instead of cost-benefit analysis! 2. From the modellers to the negotiators:A multi-pollutant/multi-effect approach can increase economic efficiency and open scope for policy deals!

  9. Evolution of the multi-pollutant/multi-effect approach1985-1994: RAINS for the Second Sulfur Protocol

  10. Evolution of the multi-pollutant/multi-effect approach1995-2000: RAINS for the Gothenburg Protocol

  11. Evolution of the multi-pollutant/multi-effect approach2000-2004: RAINS includes fine particles

  12. Evolution of the multi-pollutant/multi-effect approach2005++: GAINS includes interactions with greenhouse gases

  13. Conclusions • Integrated assessment can greatly improve the policy relevance of scientific assessments • A structured dialogue between negotiators and modellers is essential • With increasing marginal costs of the remaining measures, capturing the full set of multiple benefits of pollution control measures will be critical:Integrated assessment modelling offers a practical approach

  14. 20 years assessment of forest soil acidification1984 and 2004 Percentage of forest areawith acid deposition above critical loads 2004: CAFE assessment for 2010 1984: RAINS 1.1 assessment for 2010

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