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In this presentation, Mark Weadick from Student Loan Capital Strategies LLC discusses the performance of student loan collateral in the FFELP capital markets, changing business models, predictions for the future, and industry gossip. Topics include loan programs, funding sources, FFELP performance, financing spreads, securitization trends, NFP/Agency transactions, and market evolution.
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FFELP Capital Markets Update NCHELP Spring Meeting May 15, 2012 Mark Weadick Student Loan Capital Strategies LLC
Discussion Topics • Topics to discuss today include: • Student Loan Collateral Performance • FFELP Capital Markets Conditions • Changing Business Models/Consolidation • Predictions for 2012 and 2013 • and…….Industry Gossip • I’m looking forward to an open discussion, so please ask Qs as we go. • Thank you for having me at your meeting.
Who holds Student Loan Collateral? Loan Programs: $870 B Funding Source: $870 B Dollars in Billions, Public sources and SLCS guesstimates as of September 30, 2011
FFELP Performance Stabilizing? • Forbearance and delinquency have increased • Cohort gross defaults have increased; likely will reach low to mid 20% levels Source: SLM public reports; SLCS estimates
FFELP CPRs are Slower • Since issued Trust CPRs as of 12/31/11: Source: SLM securitization reports
FFELP Financing Spreads • The table below shows FFELP FRN financing spreads over time.
Forward Interest Rates • Existing ARS financing trusts benefit from low interest rates. • The graph below illustrates forward interest rate projections based on LIBOR. The current projection continues to call for low rates for some time.
Securitization Then & Now Pre Credit Crisis • Investment Grade market – “AAA” down to “A” • Advance rates up to 104% of FFELP Portfolio • “Ready, shoot, aim” investor marketing • “All-in” debt cost of LIBOR + 25 • ARS and FRN markets are workhorses • Trust structures contain myriad of debt types – ARS, FRN, Muni, Fixed Rate, RRN • Excess Spread released at 103 parity • Rating Agencies “fair and flexible” Current • “AAA” taxable market only; though munis down to “A” marketable • Advance rates around 95% of FFELP Portfolio • “By appointment only” investor marketing • “All-in” debt cost of LIBOR + 100A in ARS “fail” mode; and +110A for new issue • FRN market selectively open • Discreet Trust Structures only • Excess Spread retained until Investors paid • Rating Agencies “very tough”
Rating Agency Update • The rating process is substantially more complicated: • Chinese wall between rating engagement and rating process • Rating analysts cannot discuss transaction structure • Servicing and trust administration a key area of focus - Backup Servicing and Administration often required • Increased surveillance post closing • Stepped up site visits and heightened scrutiny broadly • Moody’s requires tapes direct from the servicer to verify collateral work • SEC rule 17g-5 may come into play – requires all deal documents to be posted to a website where any rating agency can choose to rate a transaction
FFELP “Fair Market Value” • The chart below shows Sallie Mae’s fair market value disclosures for their FFELP Portfolio from Dec. 31, 2006 to the present. Par Source: SLM SEC filings
Market (R)Evolution • Private Sector FFELP Portfolio is $350 Billion and amortizing • Non-scale programs: “Restructure”, “right size” or “sell”? • Scale programs: add Portfolio and servicing volumes to defray investment • An estimated $50B is not term financed • Capital Markets recovery: more “half full than half empty” • Financing costs have tightened dramatically though remain elevated • Financings are difficult to execute – a “by appointment only” market • Approximately $28B of Loans are financed in ECASLA’s Straight A Conduit • Broker/Dealers & Investors are monetizing losses • ARS Bonds often sold/exchanged at a discount (high-80s to mid-90s) • Whole loan portfolio sales occur (low- to high- 90s)
Market (R)Evolution • NFPs/Agencies are exploring different business models • NFP DL Servicing opportunity, though economics are thin • State-based Fixed Rate Private loan programs are well received by investors • Non-diversified business models face greater challenges • The Big Guys (SLM/USAF, NNI, Large Banks, TIVAS) • Many are seeking and achieving market share gains • Continuous focus on cost efficiencies • Increased focus on extracting value • Legacy Broker Dealers continue to play a significant role • Continue to hold large ARS and warehouse positions • Broker Dealer financial participation required for most “restructurings”
Industry Consolidation • Sale of Student Loan Corporation • $26B of securitized FFELP and servicing rights sold to SLM • Citi Holdings purchases remaining FFELP and Privates • Discover purchases “stock”, thus receiving origination platform and certain securitized private loans • Alliance Holdings acquisitions: • Northstar Capital Markets (servicing and admin rights) • Panhandle Plains Servicing (servicing and admin rights) • CollegeInvest sale of $1.4B FFELP Portfolio to NNI • Liquidation of $1.8B NextStudent FFELP Trust • First Marblehead dispositions
2012/3 Market Developments? • Financing “restructurings” and Industry consolidation will continue • Transaction timing will be uncertain – market, Board timing, regulators • Companies, business lines and FFELP portfolios will change hands • High levels of “stuck” collateral in non-term financings • Dept. of Education’s Policy during FFELP wind down is unclear • DL and NFP Servicing impact • Guarantors: VFA? Other tracks • FFELP asset values will remain under par: likely in mid-to-high 90s • Value range will be driven by securitization market spreads • “legacy” program and thin buyer base will keep prices at or below par