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This report provides an update on the recent evolution, current conditions, and prediction of the Asian-Australian monsoon system. It includes information on rainfall patterns over the past 90 days, 30 days, and 7 days, as well as atmospheric circulation and model forecasts. The report also highlights the demise of the Asian monsoon and onset of the Australian monsoon.
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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP April 08, 2013 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml
Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology
Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days During the past 90 days, rainfall continues to be slightly above normal over Malaysia, the Philippines, over much of the maritime Indonesian islands and over eastern coastal Australia. However, over southern and eastern China, rainfall is sporadically below normal. Severe rainfall deficits continue over northern and central interior Australia.
Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days The 30-day precipitation situation is showing marked improvement over southeastern China and Australia. The recent rains that fell in the last couple of weeks have considerably eased the deficits that existed in these regions. Interestingly, both 90-day and 30-day rainfall totals over much of South Asia including parts of the middle eastern countries such as Iran, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan has also been near normal.
Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days This past week rainfall heavy rainfall amounts fell over southeastern China has reduced the deficits in this region. Compare the forecast for this past week made by GFS one week ago with the observed.
Rainfall Time Seriesover 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Weak 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
Summary During the past 90 days, rainfall continues to be slightly above normal over Malaysia, the Philippines, over much of the maritime Indonesian islands and over eastern coastal Australia. However, over southern and eastern China, rainfall is sporadically below normal. Severe rainfall deficits continue over northern and central interior Australia. The 30-day precipitation situation is showing marked improvement over southeastern China and Australia. The recent rains that fell in the last couple of weeks have considerably eased the deficits that existed in these regions. Interestingly, both 90-day and 30-day rainfall totals over much of South Asia including parts of the middle eastern countries such as Iran, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan has also been near normal. This past week rainfall heavy rainfall amounts fell over southeastern China has reduced the deficits in this region. However, the NCEP GFS model is predicting below normal rainfall over southeastern China in the first week and over northeastern Australia in the second week.
