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The Measure of American Democracy. Charles Stewart III June 1, 2012. Who won?. Who won? How would we know?. Florida 2000 reminds us of what V.O. Key once wrote:.
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The Measure of American Democracy Charles Stewart III June 1, 2012
Who won? • How would we know?
Florida 2000 reminds us of what V.O. Key once wrote: Over most of the United States, the conduct of elections is the most neglected and primitive branch of our public administration . . . . V.O. Key, Southern Politics in State and Nation (1949
Have elections gotten better in the U.S. since 2000? What do the data say?
What problems were unearthed in 2000?: Florida • Recount law and practice were a mess (leading to a near constitutional crisis) • Old voting machines (lost votes) • Poor ballot design (confused voters) • Poor registration systems (led to voters being turned away)
What problems were unearthed in 2000? Nationwide • Nationwide recount law and practice were a mess (leading to a near constitutional crisis) • Old voting machines (lost votes) • Poor ballot design (confused voters) • Poor registration systems (led to voters being turned away) • People registering by mail (possibility of fraud) • Physically disabled hindered from voting independently • No federal champion for improving elections • Felon disenfranchisement
What problems were unearthed in 2000?: The magnitude Data sources: state election divisions; Current Population Survey, Voting and Registration Supplement
Have elections gotten better in the U.S. since 2000? • Yes, definitely • Voting machines • Yes, somewhat • Voter registration systems • No • Designing better ways to resolve election disputes • Improving polling place practices • Spurring research into best practices • Improving access for the disabled
Have elections gotten better in the U.S. since 2000? • Q: How do we know?
Have elections gotten better in the U.S. since 2000? • Q: How do we know? • A: Data analysis
Improvements in voting machines • Election data from elections divisions
Improvements in voting machines • Election data from elections divisions • Voting machine data from the EAC and Election Data Services
Improvements in voting machines • Election data from elections divisions • Voting machine data from the EAC and Election Data Services • Net result: Fewer lost votes due to voting machines • 1 million fewer in 2004 • 1.3 million fewer in 2008
Improvements in registration lists • Data from the Voting and Registration Supplement of the Current Population Study
Improvements in registration lists • Data from the Voting and Registration Supplement of the Current Population Study • Fewer people failing to vote due to registration problems • 0.92% of registered voters in 2000 • 0.74% in 2004 • 0.57% in 2008
We’re doing better.Do we feel better? Source: Roper Center (mostly)