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Introduction to the species indicators; data, modelling approaches, and trends.

Introduction to the species indicators; data, modelling approaches, and trends. Christine Holleran 4 June 2014. Introduction. Birds of the wider countryside and at sea Farmland birds Woodland birds Wetland birds Seabirds Wintering Waterbirds. 4 June 2014. Introduction.

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Introduction to the species indicators; data, modelling approaches, and trends.

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  1. Introduction to the species indicators; data, modelling approaches, and trends. Christine Holleran 4 June 2014

  2. Introduction • Birds of the wider countryside and at sea • Farmland birds • Woodland birds • Wetland birds • Seabirds • Wintering Waterbirds 4 June 2014

  3. Introduction • Insects of the wider countryside (butterflies) • Semi-natural habitat specialists • Species of the wider countryside • Mammals of the wider countryside (bats) 4 June 2014

  4. Data • Birds • Compiled in conjunction with RSPB, BTO and JNCC • Common birds census, breeding bird survey, waterways breeding bird survey, wetland bird survey, goose and swan monitoring programme, seabird monitoring programme, seabird census data. • Butterflies • Compiled by Butterfly Conservation and the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology • UK Butterfly Monitoring Scheme transect sites, from this year to be combined with Wider Countryside Butterfly Survey sites. 4 June 2014

  5. Data • Bats • Compiled by the Bat Conservation Trust • National Bat Monitoring Programme • Birds, butterflies, bats - all updated annually. 4 June 2014

  6. Modelling approaches • Amalgamating • Geometric mean of individual indices • Less influenced by outliers • Smoothing • To reduce short term peaks and troughs • General Additive Models, Structural Time Series Analysis • Measure of uncertainty • Confidence intervals: bootstrapping; time series analysis 4 June 2014

  7. Trends • Birds 4 June 2014

  8. Trends • Butterflies 4 June 2014

  9. Trends • Bats 4 June 2014

  10. Fit for purpose? • Relevance • Quality of data and analysis • Transparency of confidence • Accessibility • ?????????? 4 June 2014

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