CHINA : Meat Demand Diseases and the Vulnerability of Livestock Systems

1. CHINA : Meat Demand Diseases and the Vulnerability of Livestock Systems

2. Livestock - Background • China has largest livestock industry in the world; • Livestock productivity has been below world averages, but great improvements in many parameters; • Demand for livestock products shows strong increases with income growth and urbanization level; • What changes in livestock structure will result in response to changing demand levels and consumer preferences? • Can China feed its animals over the next 30 years or will massive imports be required? • To what extent can forthcoming livestock management practices and other efficiency enhancing technologies expand livestock production? • Will China’s livestock sector be competitive on the world market?

3. China : Meat Demand • Driven by a surging demand for animal products, livestock production is rapidly expanding • Growth of livestock production concentrates primarily on • periurban regions (close to market, good infrastructure) • pig and poultry production • large specialised farms (often with little land)

4. Demographic Change and Urbanization Rural Population % Rural

5. Meat Demand by Income - China

6. Pork Urban and Rural Demand for Pork. rural Poultry Urban and Rural Demand for Poultry. urban

8. Potential consequences of intensive livestock production on specialised farms Consequences for regional economics and the social situation • Cheap supply of animal protein • Great improvements in human diets • Small producers become supplanted and marginalised • Income disparities grow • Some employment is generated in industrial production • More employment is generated in the value-added food chain

9. Potential consequences of intensive livestock production on specialised farms Ecological consequences • Land and water pollution in areas of high animal concentration (manure discharge, bad management, excessive application, nutrient balance surplus) • Eutrophication of surface water • Eutrophication of marine ecosystems • Ground water pollution (nitrate, pathogens etc.) • Nutrient and heavy metal accumulation in soil • Nutrient depletion in feed-producing areas • High expenditures of non-renewable resources • erosion of animal bio-diversity

10. Potential consequences of intensive livestock production on specialised farms Human and animal health consequences • spreading of animal diseases • Disease threats for humans • Zoonosis • Spreading of pathogens through polluted water or air • food contamination (pathogens; heavy metals; antibiotics and pharmaceuticals etc.) • Odour, fly and noise problems, if livestock operation is near or in settlement area

11. Livestock; Intensification; Feed/Water Availability, Agricultural Population, Markets/Transportation Location; Animals Susceptibility; Duration of Epidemics; Transmission Mechanisms Livestock Epidemics Model • Epidemics Module Location; Animals Susceptibility; Duration of Epidemics; Transmission Mechanisms Livestock Losses; Economic Losses; Humans Health Losses Vulnerability Model • Vulnerability Module Losses and Gains of Agents; Population Incomes and Consumption; Livestock Demand Losses; Feasible Ex-ante And Ex-post Policies and Associated Costs • Multi-agent Economic Accounting System Model (MAEM) MAEM

12. Animal disease risk in China • Assessing the risk of animal disease in China in relation to pig & poultry production structure. • Identifying future avenue for preventing disease emergence through adjusting animal production environment

13. Context (I): densities 450 millions pigs - 3.77 billions chickens – 1.29 billions people Source: FAOSTAT 2001

14. Intensification risk factors (I) • Factors increasing disease risk • Endemic diseases causing little impact in extensive systems causes significant productivity losses under intensified systems (e.g. enteric and respiratory diseases in cattle & pigs because of viral and bact. Infection, helminthosis and many poultry diseases) • Congregation of highly susceptible animals creates conditions for rapid amplification (e.g. CSF in Europe, FMD in the Philippines) • Stress induced disease & multifactorial disease complex • Higher selective pressure, thus higher risk of new serotypes • Difficulty in maintaining high levels of hygiene, especially if water deficit

15. Intensification risk factors (II) • Factors decreasing disease risk • Possibility to avoid mixing of age group to avoid vertical spread • Using specific pathogen-free pigs (SPF) free of enteric and respiratory diseases and internal & external parasites • Animal health management (vaccine & treatments) • Animals confinement thus higher control on contacts rates (e.g. windborne diseases: FMD, Enzootic Pneumonia, Pseudorabies, Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndromes (PRRS), Porcine Respiratory coronavirus, & vector-borne diseases, contact with flies & rodents) & biosecurity.

16. Disease type vs. production systems • Endemic diseases: continuously propagated from older animals, then lateral transfer. Affect mainly extensive systems. Examples: Porcine Pleuropenumoniae, Colibacillosis, Round worm infection, Reproductive and respiratory syndrome… • Epizootic diseases: sudden outbreak due to introduction of a new disease in an area, introduction of a disease in a herd where immunity is low or suppressed, or evolution of a new strain. Affect mainly intensive production systems. Example: Porcine respiratory coronavirus, Classical Swine fever, FMD… • Stress-induced diseases: endemic disease having a sudden proliferation due to decline in animals immunity caused by stress. Examples: Epidemic Diarrhoea, Glasser disease… Source: Cameron 2000

17. Disease risk in China (II) High ext. syst. dens. High ext. syst. dens. Disease risk Probability of dis. occurrence Low ext. syst. dens. Low ext. syst. dens. % Susceptibles % Susceptibles