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Crude Oil Market Outlook

Crude Oil Market Outlook. Briefing for the State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference Wrightsville Beach, NC. by Douglas MacIntyre Petroleum Division, Energy Information Administration August 21, 2000. Monthly World Oil Prices, 1976 - 2000.

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Crude Oil Market Outlook

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  1. Crude Oil Market Outlook Briefing for the State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference Wrightsville Beach, NC by Douglas MacIntyre Petroleum Division,Energy Information Administration August 21, 2000

  2. Monthly World Oil Prices, 1976 - 2000 Sources: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook database, August 2000.

  3. Short-Term Forecast for the World Oil Price Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2000.

  4. Short-Term Forecast for the World Oil Price Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2000.

  5. How Did We Get To This Point? • 1996 • Oil Prices in the Low to Mid-$20s and Low Inventories • 1997-1998 • Historically Low Oil Prices Caused by: • Increased Production from Iraq • Asian Economic Crisis • Warmer-than-normal Winters • Increased Oil Supply from non-Iraqi Sources • 1999-2000 • OPEC Production Cuts Lead to Low Inventories • Oil Prices Reach $30 Level

  6. Oil-for-Food cap increased Oil-for-Food exports begin Iraq's invasion of Kuwait Iraq ceases exports for about 3 weeks Iraq Oil Exports Resume in Earnest in 1997 Sources: EIA, International Petroleum Monthly database.

  7. Asian Oil Demand Growth, 1991-2000 Sources: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2000.

  8. Warmer-Than-Normal Winters Built Inventories

  9. OPEC Adds 0.7 MMBD To Previous Quota OPEC Cuts 1.25 MMBD From Feb. 1998 Levels OPEC Adds 1.72 MMBD to Previous Quota OPEC Cuts 1.72 MMBD From Previous Quota OPEC Cuts 1.35 MMBD From Previous Quota OPEC (ex. Iraq) Changes Quotas to Impact Prices Sources: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook database, August 2000.

  10. Total OECD Inventory Levels, 1996-2000 Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2000.

  11. Days of Supply from OECD Inventories, 1995-2000 Days of Supply from OECD Oil Inventories Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2000.

  12. Monthly US Crude Oil Inventories, 1976 - 2000 Sources: EIA, Oil and Gas Information Resource System (OGIRS) database.

  13. Conclusions • Low U.S. Crude Oil Inventory Levels • Low OECD Days Supply • Increased Risk for Volatility • OPEC? • Production Levels? • Price Band? • Cohesion?

  14. douglas.macintyre@eia.doe.gov(202) 586-1831

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