Mike Abraczinskas, NCDAQ Laura Boothe, NCDAQ George Bridgers, NCDAQ May 26, 2005

1. State Implementation Plan (SIP) Modeling for 8-hour OzonePreliminary 2002 ResultsFor Metrolina and Great Smoky Mountain National Park Stakeholders Mike Abraczinskas, NCDAQ Laura Boothe, NCDAQ George Bridgers, NCDAQ May 26, 2005

2. Outline • Ozone overview • SIP Modeling overview • Meteorological modeling • Emissions modeling • Air Quality modeling • Future year emissions summary • Menu of possible control options • Next steps

3. Ozone and SIP Modeling Overview Laura Boothe, NCDAQ Attainment Planning Branch Chief

5. Ozone – Public Health Risks • When inhaled, even at low levels, ozone can: • Cause inflammation of lung tissue • Cause acute or chronic respiratory problems • Aggravate, possibly trigger asthma • Decrease lung capacity • Repeated exposure in children may lead to reduced lung function as adults

6. Background • 8-hour ozone standard • If a monitored design value is > 0.08 ppm (84 ppb), that monitor is violating the standard • The design value is defined as: • 3-year average of the annual 4th highest daily maximum 8-hour average

7. 2001-2003 Ozone Design Values(Highest Value Per County)

8. Violating Ozone Monitors Based on 01-03 data Green dots = attaining monitors Red dots = violating monitors

9. NC 8-hr Ozone Nonattainment Areas

10. Metrolina 8-hr Ozone Design Values Monitor County Line Enochville Rockwell Garinger Crouse Arrowood Monroe York County Mecklenburg Rowan Rowan Mecklenburg Lincoln Mecklenburg Union York, SC 01-03 98 99 100 96 92 84 88 84 02-04 92 91 94 91 86 81 85 80 2005* 83 87 76 83 91 104 97 110 # ** 1 of 5 2 of 5 0 of 5 0 of 5 2 of 5 5 of 5 4 of 5 5 of 5 * 4th highest 8-hr max in 2005 can be no higher than this value in order to attain by the end of the 2005 ozone season. ** Number of times the 4th highest has been this value or lower in the last 5years.

11. Ozone Nonattainment Timeline • Immediate (June 15, 2004) • New source review • One year • Transportation conformity • Three years • State Implementation Plan (SIP) – attainment demonstration • Five years (or as expeditiously as practicable) • Basic areas attain standard (Triangle, RMT, GSMNP) • Six years (or as expeditiously as practicable) • Moderate areas attain standard (Metrolina)

12. Ozone Nonattainment TimelineDefinitions for Metrolina Area Effective date = June 15, 2004 Transportation conformity date = June 15, 2005 SIP submittal date = June 15, 2007 Attainment date = June 15, 2010* Data used to determine attainment = 2007-2009 (Modeling) Attainment year = 2009 * Or as early as possible

13. State Implementation Plan (SIP) • Need a “SIP submittal” to EPA within three years • Attainment Demonstration that details the State’s plan to bring the area into attainment of the Federal standard • For Metrolina area…must include: • 15% VOC Reasonable Further Progress (RFP) Plan • VOC & NOX Reasonably Available Control Technology (RACT) • Reasonably Available Control Measures (RACM) • Motor Vehicle Inspection and Maintenance programs (I/M)

14. State Implementation Plan (SIP) • 15% VOC RFP Plan • Calculated from the 2002 base year • Cannot substitute other emissions for the first plan • Phase 2 implementation guidance should say what can and cannot be counted towards the 15% plan • Includes reductions from all man-made emissions, i.e. point, area, highway mobile and off-road mobile • May need to implement additional controls to meet this requirement

15. State Implementation Plan (SIP) • VOC & NOX RACT • All existing point sources with potential to emit≥ 100 tons/year (TPY) • NC has pre-adopted VOC RACT rules (2D .0900) and NOx RACT rule (2D .1413) • Will have to update to include entire Metrolina 8-hour ozone nonattainment area • Will have to activate these rules • SC has a statewide VOC rule for new sources with actual emissions ≥ 100 TPY and statewide NOx rule for large boilers (>10 MBTU/hour) • Starting to identify potential sources subject to RACT requirements

16. State Implementation Plan (SIP) • RACM Requirements • Applies to all source sectors (point, area, highway mobile & off-road mobile sources) • Only what is necessary to attain NAAQS • NC has already adopted some RACM type rules • Open burning ban during ozone events • Expanded I/M program • SC has adopted some RACM type rules • Open burning • Degreasers • Motor Vehicle Inspection and Maintenance programs (I/M) • NC has already have met this requirement in Metrolina area • SC working on a program for the nonattainment area in York County

17. State Implementation Plan (SIP) • Most significant emission controls are already underway • Clean Smokestacks Act • Vehicle emissions testing • Ultra-Low sulfur fuels • Cleaner engines

18. NC/SC SIP Coordination • Working together in VISTAS • Making use of VISTAS 2002 meteorological, emissions and air quality modeling • Future year (2009) work will be completed through VISTAS • Control strategies for the Metrolina area will be developed through a consultation process involving NCDAQ, SCDHEC and appropriate stakeholders

19. VISTAS • Visibility Improvement State and Tribal Association of the Southeast • Regional Planning Organization established under the 1999 Regional Haze Rule • Collaborative effort of States and Tribes to support management of regional haze and related air quality issues in the Southeastern US • No independent regulatory authority and no authority to direct or establish State or Tribal law or policy.

22. Emissions Inventories 2002 & 2009 Met, Emissions and AQ Model performance and protocol

23. Modeling Application Process • Select areas or domains of interest • Select representative ozone season/episodes • Prepare and refine meteorological simulations • Prepare and refine emission model inputs • Apply air quality modeling system • Performance evaluation on episodes • Prepare current and future year emissions(Projected and Potential Control Strategies) • Re-apply air quality modeling system • Analyze the effectiveness of control strategies • Apply the attainment test

24. SparseMatrixOperatorKernelEmissions Emissions Processor Meteorological Model SMOKE MM5 Community Multiscale Air Quality System Air Quality Model CMAQ Temporally and Spatially Gridded Air Quality Output predictions Air Quality Modeling System

25. Modeling Domains 12 km 36 km

26. Grid Structure Vertical: MM5 = 34 layers SMOKE & CMAQ = 19 layers ~48,000 ft Horizontal: 36 km & 12 km Layer 1 = 36 m deep Ground

27. Modeling Season / Episode • Full Year of 2002 selected for VISTAS modeling • Regional Haze / Fine Particulate: Full Year • Ozone: Late May – End Of August • The “higher” portion of the 2002 ozone season selected for the Ozone SIP and Attainment Demonstration modeling.

28. Meteorological Modeling Overview George Bridgers, NCDAQ Meteorologist

29. Meteorological Modeling • Penn State / NCAQ MM5 meso-scale meteorological model • Version 3.6.1+ • Widely used in theresearch and regulatorycommunities • VISTAS Contracted WithBarons AdvancedMeteorological Systems(BAMS) • Run at both 36km (Nationwide)and 12km (Southeastern US) resolutions

30. Met Model Performance • Model Performance For Key Variables: • Temperature • Moisture (Mixing Ratio & Relative Humidity) • Winds • Cloud Cover • Precipitation • Comparisons With Other Met Modeling Studies • Summary Of Met Model Performance

31. Model Performance StatisticsMeteorology In North Carolina May, June, July, August, and September (MJJAS)

32. Temperature • Overall diurnal pattern captured very well • Slight cool bias in the daytime • Slight warm bias overnight

33. May June July August

34. Moisture (Mixing Ratio) • Tracks observed trends fairly well • Low bias in the morning through the early afternoon • High bias in the late afternoon and at night

35. May June July August

36. Moisture (Relative Humidity) • High bias in the daytime • Low bias at night RH is linked to temperature and moisture biases

37. Wind Speed • ~1 mph high bias day, ~2 mph high bias at night • Partly due to relative inability of winds in the model to go calm (There is always “some” wind) • Also due to “starting thresholds” of observation network… network can’t measure winds < 3 mph, so winds < 3 mph are reported as “calm”

38. May June July August

39. May June July August

40. Cloud Cover • General overestimation of clouds in the met model • Greatest bias overnight & smallest bias early afternoon • Nighttime cloud observations questionable • Bias ~4% in May, peaks at ~15% in July, and declines to ~3% in September

41. Cloud Cover • General over prediction of clouds (example – July 18 2PM)

42. Precipitation • Mixed precipitation performance… typical of any summertime weather pattern / forecast • Good performing day (Spatially and magnitude):

43. Precipitation • Poorer performing day (Magnitude okay is spots, but significant precip I-95 corridor that is false):

44. Observed Precip MAY Modeled Precip MAY Observed Precip JUNE Modeled Precip JUNE

45. Observed Precip JULY Modeled Precip JULY Observed Precip AUGUST Modeled Precip AUGUST

46. Comparisons With Other Met Modeling Studies • The next series of slides are adapted from Alpine Geophysics documentation for the VISTAS AQ Modeling project. • The bar charts are comparisons of VISTAS Phase I (Sensitivities) MM5 modeling to other national and Southeast regional MM5 simulations • The performance characteristics of VISTAS Phase I MM5 modeling is very similar to VISTAS Phase II (Annual) MM5 Modeling

47. National MM5 Comparisons

48. The 3 green bars: - VISTAS 1 = January 2002 episode - VISTAS 2 = July 2001 episode - VISTAS 31 = July 1999 episode • The yellow bars: - USEPA’s 2001 Annual MM5 simulation

49. The 3 green bars: - VISTAS 1 = January 2002 episode - VISTAS 2 = July 2001 episode - VISTAS 31 = July 1999 episode • The yellow bars: - USEPA’s 2001 Annual MM5 simulation

50. The 3 green bars: - VISTAS 1 = January 2002 episode - VISTAS 2 = July 2001 episode - VISTAS 31 = July 1999 episode • The yellow bars: - USEPA’s 2001 Annual MM5 simulation