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Advanced Nowcasting Capabilities

Discover the advanced nowcasting capabilities of Weather Decision Technologies, including the MAPLE forecast model, which blends observed and predicted data to provide accurate forecasts of precipitation accumulation and hazardous weather alerts. Explore how this technology is used to answer key weather questions and provide high-resolution forecasts for specific locations.

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Advanced Nowcasting Capabilities

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  1. Advanced Nowcasting Capabilities Richard L. Carpenter, Jr., Ph.D., CCM Weather Decision Technologies, Inc. MDSS Stakeholder Meeting – October 2005, Boulder, CO

  2. About Weather Decision Technologies • Founded by research meteorologists in Norman, OK, in 2000 • Work with (and license technology from) research organizations • Advanced uses of weather data and algorithms

  3. Key Weather Questions • When is the (snow, freezing rain, etc.) going to start? • When is it going to stop? • How much will accumulate?

  4. Future Radar: MAPLE • Developed at McGill University (Montreal) • Exclusively licensed by WDT

  5. Future Radar: MAPLE Observed Predicted

  6. Forecast of 2-hour Precip Accumulation Observed Predicted

  7. Comparison of MAPLE with Numerical Model (WRF) Observed Accumulation WRF MAPLE Skill Map

  8. Blending of MAPLE and Models • During the first 4 hours, MAPLE performs better than models • After 4-6 hours, model forecasts are more accurate than MAPLE • WDT is working with McGill to optimally blend MAPLE and WRF Skill  MAPLE better   Models better Kilambi & Zawadzki 2005

  9. Operational MAPLE Forecasts • Using NEXRAD Level II and Canadian radar mosaics • 6 hour forecasts updated every 15 min • 1 km grid

  10. Conditional Precip Type • Precip type (snow, freezing rain, etc.) overlay based on hourly updating numerical model (WRF)

  11. MAPLE Precip Accumulation MAPLE Nowcast MAPLE 4 h Precip Accumulation (also available by type)

  12. Hazardous Weather Alerting 60 min threat of lightning 60 min threat of ¾ and 2 inch hail

  13. Hazardous Weather Alerting ETA/ETD (onset/all-clear) for a given location

  14. High-resolution Numerical Model Forecasts (WRF) National Forecast Mesonet data (e.g., DOT sensors) Regional/Statewide Forecasts of Temperature, Wind, Precip, and Weather 5 km grid

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