150 likes | 663 Views
Initial Claims vs. Google Trends. According to the NBER, the current recession started ... Monthly Sales vs. Google Trends at Second Week of each month ...
E N D
European Banking & Financial Forum 2010, Mar 23 Nowcasting Using The Wisdom Of The Crowds To Avoid Panic, Hype and Data Lag Mohammad Gawdat Managing Director – Southern & Eastern Europe, Middle East & Africa Head Of Emerging Markets Council
Behaviour As A Driver Of Trends – Unemployment Example 1 A Leading Indicator For End Of A Recession
Behaviour As A Driver Of Trends – Unemployment Example 1 Also a good predictor of personal finance distress Personal finance distress shows high correlation with initial claims. • Unemployment rate in US is highest since early 80s recession. • Risk measures in credit market increase along with unemployment rate. • Initial Claims is primary leading indicator in Labor market. • So unemployment data is useful in other setors as well...
Behaviour As A Driver Of Trends – Unemployment Example • CareerBuilder • Kelly Services • Manpower • Temp Agencies • Robert Half • Spherion • Aerotek • Walmart jobs • Appleone • Social Security • Social Security Office Locations • Social Security Administration • Unemployment Benefits • Social Security Disability • Social Security Gov • Unemployment Office • Food Stamps • Department of Labor • Monster • Indeed • Jobs • Job Search • Resume • Job Search Engines • Linkedin • Hotjobs • Cover Letter 1 Search Behaviour Also Changes During A Recession Jobs Welfare & Unemployment Recruiting & Staffing
Behaviour As A Driver Of Trends – Unemployment Example 1 ... And That Gets reflected In Google Trends Source: Internal data
Behaviour As A Driver Of Trends – Unemployment Example 1 Initial Claims vs. Google Trends Recession Starts • According to the NBER, the current recession started December 2007. • National unemployment rate passed 5% in mid 2008 and search queries on [Welfare and Unemployment] increased at same time. Window For Long Term Model Window For Short Term Model Source: Internal data
Nowcasting – Predicting The Present – Auto Sales Example 2 Nowcasting Competitive Performance Source: Internal data
Nowcasting – Predicting The Present – Auto Sales Example 2 Auto Sales by Make (Top 9 Make by Sales) Monthly Sales vs. Google Trends at Second Week of each month • Source:Automotive News Data Center
Nowcasting – Predicting The Present – Auto Sales Example 2 Actual vs. Fitted Sales (Top 9 Make by Sales) • Source:Automotive News Data Center
Myth Or Reality – Automotive / Travel Examples 3 US Automakers vs. Consumer Preference Source: Internal data
Myth Or Reality – Travel Examples 3 Are Germans Traveling Less? Source: Internal data