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Hiroyuki HINO Kobe University December. 4. 2007

Japan’s New Economic Paradigm u nder a Declining Population : Implications for Indo-Japan Economic Relations. Hiroyuki HINO Kobe University December. 4. 2007. Key Points. Negative legacies : - Reverse pyramid population structure - Degradation of global environment

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Hiroyuki HINO Kobe University December. 4. 2007

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  1. Japan’s New Economic Paradigm under a Declining Population :Implications for Indo-Japan Economic Relations Hiroyuki HINO Kobe University December. 4. 2007

  2. Key Points • Negative legacies : - Reverse pyramid population structure - Degradation of global environment • From policies of growth supremacy to achievement of sustainable economy. • Embrace “globalism”. • Complementarity of Japan’s and India’s economies. Slide #1

  3. 1960 age female male Population (10 thousands) Japan’s Population Structure 2005 age 2050 age Source: National Institute of Population and Society Research Slide #2

  4. Impact of Population Dynamics % Assumes that a fall of working age population precedes that of whole population Source: Yamaguchi Slide #3

  5. Economic Loss due to Global Warming % (% of world GDP) Slide #4 Source: IMF

  6. Strengths of Japanese System • Firms develop firm specific technology / know-how. • Employees acquire skills through on-the-job training. • Employees internalize firm’s growth as own incentives. • Employees adapt, and solve problems on the spot. Slide #5

  7. 25.0 1985 20.0 1990 15.0 1995 10.0 2000 5.0 2006 0.0 65+ 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 50-54 55-59 60-64 ４５～４９ All ages Length of Employment by Age Groups years (male) Slide #6 Source: U.S. Bureau of Census. Historical Statistics, BLS. Handbook of Labor Statistics

  8. ( Gini Coefficient ) 0.55 Initial Income 0.50 0.45 After re-distribution 0.40 0.35 0.30 1961 1967 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 Income Inequality Source: Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare Slide #7

  9. Network Connection • Diversifies international trade of services. • Changes where goods are produced with least cost. • Changes where (country) to invest to set up a firm. • Connection costs, key to benefit from network connection. Slide #8

  10. India India’s Population Dynamics Support Ratio Slide #9 Source: Mason “Demographic Dividends: The past, the present, and the future”

  11. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Source: IMF (World Economic Outlook) Slide #10

  12. Toward Japan’s New Economic Paradigm • Re-balance the objective, away from growth today to achievement of sustainable economy. • Raise efficiency through firm-specific technology / know-how / skills. • Enhance equity through changes in policy decision processes. • Embrace globalism. Slide #11

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