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US/China Grain Trade Trends and Challenges

US/China Grain Trade Trends and Challenges. Rebecca Bratter, Director Trade Development Agricultural Outlook Forum February 24, 2011. Percent GDP Growth. China: Growing Market Dynamics bring growing opportunities. Population 1.3 billion Rapid rise in incomes  Changes in diets

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US/China Grain Trade Trends and Challenges

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  1. US/China Grain TradeTrends and Challenges Rebecca Bratter, Director Trade Development Agricultural Outlook Forum February 24, 2011

  2. Percent GDP Growth

  3. China: Growing Market Dynamics bring growing opportunities • Population 1.3 billion • Rapid rise in incomes  Changes in diets • Middle class to grow to 700 million, 75% Urban • Per capita income: • TODAY $5,000 • SOON $10,000 - $40,000

  4. China in World Agriculture • #1 producer of cotton, rice, pork, peanuts, numerous fresh fruits, milk • #2 producer of corn • #1 importer of soybeans, cotton Source: USDA/FAS PSD online

  5. China -Transition and Uncertainty • Food security concerns • Lack of supply/demand information • Shift from self-sufficiency policy, net exporter to net importer • Declining corn stocks • Food price inflation

  6. China Corn Consumption v. Production

  7. China Import Trends CHINA CORN & DDGS USGC in the market since 1982 Exported 2.4 MMT DDGS to China First significant purchases of corn since 1995 MMT

  8. China Corn Import Outlook ?

  9. China DDGS Imports (Jan-Dec)

  10. China Corn Stocks to UsePrivate estimates

  11. Commercial Hogs Consume Grains 65% 35%

  12. Growth of dairy feed is faster than swine, poultry and beef cattle

  13. U.S. Corn Yield Projections

  14. U.S. Ethanol Production

  15. U.S. corn producers’ commitment • Increase quality and timeliness of market information • Increase production to meet export needs • We never close. Exports available every day. • Continue to innovate, adapt technology. • Sustain infrastructure to meet world demands.

  16. USDA Import Projections

  17. China Possible

  18. US Corn Outlook

  19. Corn outlook plus China

  20. Concluding Thoughts • How much will corn will China import • How much will China’s corn demand impact US stock to end/use ratio • Impact on corn prices • What about DDGs • Is the US prepared for the impending wave of demand • How will China manage transition to net importer?

  21. Thank You

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