Four Mega Trends

1. Four Mega Trends Impacting High School Reinvention Ray McNulty Senior Vice President International Center for Leadership in Education Hawaii January 22-23, 2007

2. Dreams of the children we have Class of 2017 Themes • Some Thoughts • Educational Challenges • Four Megatrends Success to Significance

3. Some thoughts…

4. REFORM What are some thoughts that come to mind when you hear this word?

5. RENEWAL

6. Rigor/Relevance - All

7. THE IMPLEMENTATION DIP…. THE POSSIBILITY CURVE.. Fullan--1990

8. Epidemic of Immediacy • Clock of the Long Now….

9. REALLY BAD PREDICTIONS • “Law will be simplified. . .Lawyers will have diminished, and their fees will have been vastly curtailed.” • Journalist Junius Henri Browne, 1893

10. REALLY BAD PREDICTIONS • “Before man reaches the moon your mail will be delivered within hours from New York to Australia by guided missiles. We stand on the threshold of rocket mail.” • Arthur Summerfield, US Postmaster General under Eisenhower, 1959.

11. REALLY BAD PREDICTIONS • “Daily toil . . . will be shortened to four or five hours” U.S. Senator W.A. Peffer of Kansas, 1893. • “There will be no epidemics. There will be no incurable diseases.” Norman Bel Geddes in Ladies’ Home Journal, 1931.

12. DEMASTIFICATION • We have as a people, fewer shared experiences. • Choice Cable Stations

13. DISINTERMEDIATION • Printing Press

14. EDUCATIONAL TRENDS

15. Trends • A Fundamental Challenge • Changing Perceptions and Increased Expectations • Secondary Focus – College and Work Ready

16. Fundamental ChallengeChanging the expectations of educators, parents, community members and students regarding what is possible.

17. All students graduate as strong citizens ready for college and work. “Ready for college and work” means that students: • have strong reading, writing and math skills • are prepared for a range of post-secondary options • become informed citizens who can grapple with tough social problems

18. NAEP Reading, 17 Year-Olds 21 29

19. NAEP Math, 17 Year-Olds 28 20

20. There has also been a skills convergence: high school graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering college • Colleges and employers demand similar knowledge and skill sets • In math, they require algebra, data analysis, and statistics • In English they demand strong oral and written communication skills, analytical and research skills • Machine Operator • Eastman Chemical Company • Required Skills: • Calculate and apply ratios, proportions and percentages to solve problems • Add, subtract, multiply, divide and simplify rational expressions • Recognize and solve problems using a linear equation and one variable • Apply principals in equations involving measurements • Determine the perimeter and the circumference of geometric shapes • College Algebra • Required Skills: • Add, subtract, multiply, divide and simplify rational expressions • Understand functional notation • Solve systems of two linear equations in two variables • Solve quadratic equations in one variable • Graph a linear equation and quadratic function • Determine the perimeter and the circumference of geometric shapes • Represent geometric objects and figures algebraically Source: American Diploma Project, 2003

21. Changing Perceptions and Increased Expectations • The growing need for personalization and customization will influence not only the way that business is conducted but also how schools will function.

23. Four Mega Trends

24. Challenges • Globalization • Demographics • Values / Beliefs • Technology

25. Globalization • 9/11 • 11/9 • Information Tech (Work to Worker)

26. Globalization • Tax Returns • MRIs • Reuters • McDonalds • A- Level

27. China • Clothes / Shoes • Furniture • Consumer Electronics • Computers • Bio Technology

28. Cities with 1 Million People

29. Number of ParticipantsIntel International Science Competition • U.S. 50,000 • China 6 Million SOURCE: Craig Barrett, CEO Intel

30. China • World Class for 10% • K – 12 Universal by 2020 • 100 World Class Universities • 30 World Class Research Universities • Math /Science Focus (Specialist – 3rd Grade on) • International Orientation (110 Million – English) • Coherent Teacher Preparation • Early Childhood (3 year old – universal by 2015) • Career Focus Source: Education in China: Lessons for U.S. Educators, Asia Society – Business Roundtable, CCSSO

31. Challenges • Globalization • Demographics • Values / Beliefs • Technology

32. Start Working End Working Longevity 107 77 62 62 47 21 14 18 1900 2000 2100

33. Over 85 • 1994 3.5 Million • 2020 7 Million • 2050 27 Million

34. Demographics / Economic • 1910 3.0 / 100 • 1946 4.6 / 100 • 2000 1.4 – 1.8 / 100

35. Medicare • 2004 9 % • 2020 25 % • 2040 50 %

36. Registered VotersSchool Age Children • 1960 50 % • 2005 18 %

37. Challenges • Globalization • Demographics • Values / Beliefs • Technology

38. Larger Context • 1901 – 24 G.I. • 1925 – 42 Silent • 1943 – 60 Boomers • 1961 – 81 Gen X • 1982 - Millennial

39. Millennial Parents • Accountability • Protective • Connected 24 / 7 • Cool to be Smart • Team Skills • Cool to Know Technology

40. Out of every 100 ninth graders….

41. 65 will graduate from high school

42. 39 will enter college

43. 26 are still enrolled in the sophomore year

44. 15 will graduate from college

45. Challenges • Globalization • Demographics • Values / Beliefs • Technology

46. Information Technology • Processing • Communications

47. Nano Technology • Atom Up

48. 1964 IBM System / 360 Mainframe Central Units’ Memory = 8 MB 2004 iPod = 4 GB 2005 iPod = 20 GB 2006 iPod = 80 GB

49. Image source: www.dell.com

50. Image source: http://robota.dem.uc.pt/pda_control/pda2.JPG