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Competing in a Chaotic Economy Todd Buchholz. Who’s Faster? Who’s Bigger?. Hyper-Competition. Speed Scissors. Age of Anxiety. New Silk Routes. RANK 1999 2005 Sinopec 50 7 Sabic 32 10 Formosa Pl 47 11 . Middle East Chemical Plants
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Competing in a Chaotic EconomyTodd Buchholz www.toddbuchholz.com @Rushbook
Who’s Faster? Who’s Bigger? www.toddbuchholz.com @Rushbook
Hyper-Competition Speed Scissors www.toddbuchholz.com @Rushbook
Age of Anxiety www.toddbuchholz.com @Rushbook
New Silk Routes RANK 1999 2005 Sinopec 50 7 Sabic 32 10 Formosa Pl 47 11 Middle East Chemical Plants quadruple 1990-2005 GCC $35b trade with Asia GCC FTA deals with China, India, NZ www.toddbuchholz.com @Rushbook
Pick Up a Club www.toddbuchholz.com @Rushbook
No “Skin in the Game” “trust me” paper Avoid Basel – new paper after LTCM Avalanche of defaults, downgrades, CDS, mark-to-market, pension exits www.toddbuchholz.com @Rushbook
Free Trade Backlash: Colombia, Panama FTA Sovereign Wealth Fears “Buy America?” India v. Steel; Russia v. Cars and Chickens; Argentina v. auto parts; www.toddbuchholz.com @Rushbook
Who’s This? www.toddbuchholz.com @Rushbook
“For the next 30 years, we all work for the Germans” Who do we work for?
The High Price of a Free Lunch? www.toddbuchholz.com @Rushbook
A.P. Giannini: Gladiator of Finance www.toddbuchholz.com @Rushbook
Compete on Expertise and Service __ ____ ____ __ ______ __ _________ __ ______ _____ _____ _ __________ __ _____ _____ __ _____ How many live in Arizona? Two languages Non-banker hours “women’s department” 3 of first 11 loans to women www.toddbuchholz.com @Rushbook
No Excuses! (c)Todd G. Buchholz 2012 20
We Can Beat Our FOE’s • Federal ReserveHiked Rates Too Much • OPECTightened the Noose • EuroFell Too Far www.toddbuchholz.com @Rushbook
Back to the ’70s? www.toddbuchholz.com @Rushbook
Is Inflation Baked in the Cake? www.toddbuchholz.com @Rushbook
Does China Save Capitalism? www.toddbuchholz.com @Rushbook
China Aging www.toddbuchholz.com @Rushbook
The Race for IQ Points1992-2002 Stevedores -17% Timber -32% Farm -20% Sewing -50% Typesetters -62% Elect. Engineers +28% Med. Scientists +33% Architects +44% Legal Assistants +66% Fin. Services +78% @Rushbook
Peak Oil or Peak People? ________ ___________ ________ ____ _____ ___________ __________ ________ ___ Petroleum engineering students fall 90% since 1981 Agricultural scientists stagnant for 20 years www.toddbuchholz.com @Rushbook