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Housing Australians : The Challenges Ahead

John Curtin Institute of Public Policy. Housing Australians : The Challenges Ahead. Shane Goodwin Managing Director Housing Industry Association 1 July 2010. Changing Demographic Profile.

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Housing Australians : The Challenges Ahead

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  1. John Curtin Institute of Public Policy Housing Australians :The Challenges Ahead Shane Goodwin Managing Director Housing Industry Association 1 July 2010

  2. Changing Demographic Profile “In respect to ageing, between now and 2050, people aged 65 to 84 years will more than double and the number of people aged 85 and over will more than quadruple. By 2050, there will be only 2.7 people of working age for every person aged 65 and over. Today there is five.” Wayne Swan, Treasurer

  3. Australian Population Projections Low and Base case 2050 Percentage of total population 2010 2050 - Low 2050 - Base 0-14 19.1 15.1 17.2 15-64 67.4 58.9 60.2 65-84 11.7 20.0 17.6 85 and over 1.8 6.0 5.1 Low = popn. growth of 0.8% p.a. Base = popn. growth of 1.2% p.a. Source: Treasury projections

  4. National top 20 Building & Population Hotspots*

  5. WA Building & Population Hotspots**

  6. Acknowledgement : Bernard Salt - Address to HIA National Policy Congress, Gold Coast, May 2010

  7. Australian Population Growth

  8. Dwelling Requirements New Dwelling Requirements to 2020 Source: HIA 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 Number 100,000 50,000 0 Current projections Small Australia Big Australia Current trend Average annual starts required Housing Starts based on current trend

  9. Dwelling Requirements Total Dwelling Requirements to 2020 Source: ABS, HIA 2,750,000 2,419,811 2,500,000 Current Trend 2,250,000 2,059,811 1,920,000 1,819,811 2,000,000 1,750,000 1,500,000 1,250,000 Number 1,000,000 750,000 500,000 250,000 0 Current projections Small Australia Big Australia Current trend Total new dwellings required Current Capacity Potential Capacity

  10. Housing Shortfall

  11. Housing Shortfall

  12. Housing Affordability Decline

  13. Housing Shortfall

  14. Average number of persons in household - Australia Source: ABS4130.0

  15. Obstacles to boosting supply Systemic obstacles to boosting Australia’s supply of housing stock: Lack of readily available land Planning delays Infrastructure tax and charges Finance constraints

  16. State Planning & Building processes for Detached Housing Approvals (1 May 2010)

  17. House and Land

  18. House and Land

  19. Capping of Levies in NSW Example of Reduction in Section 94 Charges Pre December 2008 December 2008 to June 2010 After 7 June 2010 Local Council (s94) $58,970 $58,970 $20,000 State Infrastructure Up to $33,000 $11,000 $11,000 Water Charges $18,000 $0 $0 Total $109,970 $69,970 $31,000 Notes: 1. No exemptions existed prior to December 2008 2. The state Infrastructure Charge (SIC) of $33,000 was reduced to $11,000 in the December 2008 announcement. (HIA is currently lobbying to retain this cap beyond July 2011.) 3. The water charge was also removed in the December 2008 announcement 4. The majority of councils in the SW growth area were granted an exemption to the December 2008 ($20,000) cap

  20. Infrastructure Backlogs Significant infrastructure investment backlogs (2005): Electricity has an under-investment of $1.15 billion Gas has an under-investment of $2.6 billion Road has an under-investment of $10 billion Rail has an under-investment of $8.06 billion Water has a potential under-investment of $3 billion The total estimated under-investment is $24.81 billion Source : 2005 Australian Infrastructure, Report Card, Institution of Engineers Australia

  21. Workforce Profile

  22. Trade & Non-Trade Commencements Seasonally adjusted, 1999-2009 (‘000)

  23. Apprentice Commencements

  24. Apprentice and Trainee Attrition Rates from Contracts, by Occupation

  25. Commonwealth Skilled Occupation List Skills Shortages 1 July 2010 Air-conditioning mechanic Architect Bricklayer Carpenter Carpenter & Joiner Construction project manager Drainer Electrician Fibrous plasterer Gasfitter Geotechnical engineer Glazier Joiner Painter Plumber Project builder Quantity surveyor Roof plumber Solid plasterer Stonemason Structural engineer Wall & floor tiler

  26. Summary of Commonwealth Incentive Payments for Apprentices in Building Industry

  27. Summary of State Incentive Payments for Apprentices in Building Industry

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