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Housing Australians The Outlook for Australia’s Residential Construction Industry

Housing Australians The Outlook for Australia’s Residential Construction Industry. Graham Wolfe HIA Chief Executive – Industry Policy & Media 20 September 2012. Population Growth – Australia. NET OVERSEAS MIGRATION - NSW. New housing starts in New South Wales. NET INTERSTATE MIGRATION - NSW.

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Housing Australians The Outlook for Australia’s Residential Construction Industry

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  1. Housing AustraliansThe Outlook for Australia’s Residential Construction Industry Graham Wolfe HIA Chief Executive – Industry Policy & Media 20 September 2012

  2. Population Growth – Australia

  3. NET OVERSEAS MIGRATION - NSW

  4. New housing starts in New South Wales

  5. NET INTERSTATE MIGRATION - NSW

  6. POPULATION GROWTH - NSW

  7. MOVING ANNUAL TOTAL - NSW

  8. NET OVERSEAS MIGRATION - VICTORIA

  9. POPULATION GROWTH - VICTORIA

  10. MOVING ANNUAL TOTAL - VICTORIA

  11. NET INTERSTATE MIGRATION - QUEENSLAND

  12. MOVING ANNUAL TOTAL - QUEENSLAND

  13. POPULATION GROWTH - AUSTRALIA

  14. Gap between population growth and new stock

  15. The world is a worry Europe is a basket case, but … • … it’s finding a way to muddle through. • Confidence, credit, and exposure for East Asia are the key linkages to Australia. Updates on the US economy are patchy • One recent, large, positive – the housing market seems to be recovering China holding up “okayish”? • China has slowed, and there are some concerns, but… • … these concerns still look over-played. • East Asia in general is slowing down and the focus is here to stay for a while.

  16. The Australian Economy – how good are we?

  17. The Australian Economy – how good are we?

  18. The good, the bad, and the ugly

  19. Let’s get the ugly out of the way …

  20. The ugly: Housing starts are heading in the wrong direction, and ...

  21. ... it’s a synchronised downturn and …

  22. … renovations are also sliding • Renovations investment has fallen over four consecutive quarters.

  23. The bad: consumers are unsure and nervous

  24. The good and bad: easing dwelling prices • Do we really need to scare the living daylights out of people?

  25. Median Dwelling Price Baby boomer FHB aged children GFC-induced stimulus 4% unemployment Baby boomer investors 6% Interest rate 17% Interest rate 4.25% Interest rate 6.9% unemployment Infrastructure levies surge Sydney is FULL! and GST commences Unemployment 8.5%

  26. The good and bad: falling interest rates • Are we at the end of the line?

  27. The good: housing affordability is improving

  28. The good: some indicators are turning

  29. The good: no shortage of potential

  30. The good: no shortage of potential

  31. The good: no shortage of potential

  32. So what does the future hold?

  33. Short term housing starts outlook

  34. The short term outlook for renovations

  35. So, what now? • There remain many short term challenges to residential construction, … • … both new home building and renovations. • The renovations model is changing and that brings opportunity. • So too does state governments realising things have to change on the new home building front. • People will adjust to the ‘new world’ for housing prices and with that will come opportunity as well. • Australia’s housing backyard needs work and HIA will keep up the fight. • The key challenge is uncertainty around when we will see ‘the turn’.

  36. THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIMEGraham Wolfe HIA Chief Executive – Industry Policy & MediaSeptember 2012

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