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Topic Disadvantages

Topic Disadvantages. James Stevenson. US Industries – Background. Auto industry Second-largest automobile producer in the world Est. 3-3.5% of US GDP Directly employs 1.7 million Americans Spends $16-18 billion annually on research and development Bailed out for $80 billion in 2008

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Topic Disadvantages

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  1. Topic Disadvantages James Stevenson

  2. US Industries – Background • Auto industry • Second-largest automobile producer in the world • Est. 3-3.5% of US GDP • Directly employs 1.7 million Americans • Spends $16-18 billion annually on research and development • Bailed out for $80 billion in 2008 • Airline Industry • Devastated by 9/11—lost $30 billion and laid off 100k workers from 2000-2005. Bailed out for $4.6 billion. • Will fly 323 million seat-miles in 2012 • Employs nearly 600,000 Americans

  3. US Industries – Structure • Uniqueness: industry strong now • Link: plan trades off w/ industry growth • Siphons demand • Decreases competitiveness • “Zero sum”—predicated off aff solvency • Internal link: industry is good, generally for a few reasons: • Economy • Hegemony/competitiveness • Aerospace

  4. Economy—Background • The 2008 recession: • Recession = sustained period of decreased economic activity • Begins in 2007. Officially ends in 2009 but lingering effects remain • Housing bubble • Derivative deregulation • Median household income drops to 1996 levels • The facts: • Unemployment in June is 8.2%. +800,000 jobs. • Retail sales dropped 0.5% in June—third straight negative month • Growth in the last 11 fiscal quarters • Economy is 1.2% larger than pre-recession levels

  5. Economy—Structure • UQ: Economy is okay • L: There are a few possibilities-- • Fiscal discipline • Spending decreases US credit rating • Spending snowballs—”pork barrel” projects • Inflation • “Invisible hand” of the free market” vstargetted government spending • Private investment crowd-out • !: Economy

  6. Economy—Strategy • Two important techniques: • Know the facts. • Know the theory, so you can spin the facts. • Econ debates are 75% spin. • Internal link comparisons • Short vs. long term growth • Sustainability of growth • Evidence specificity—generic cards vsaff/transportation specific analysis • Eurozone comparisons • Economic decline as “escalatino” impact—turns case args

  7. Oil—Background • Oil prices • Spot price per barrel of Brent crude • Follow laws of supply and demand • “Market flooding”—massive supply increase to offset drop in price • OPEC • Several of the most powerful oil retailers in the world—except the US and Russia • Trades oil in dollars… for now

  8. Oil—Structure • UQ: Oil prices up • L: Plan lowers oil prices • !: High oil prices good—another entity/country depends on them • Basically infinite possible impacts. • Aff—either don’t do things that link to the DA, or keep updated on generic parts of the argument (oil prices uniqueness, economic stability, alt causes to the link, etc) and learn to impact turn

  9. Oil—SCuFI file countries • Saudi Arabia • 2nd largest reserves and largest producer (as of March) • US ally, sort of. • Close neighbors w/ Egypt (just had a revolution), Israel (historic enemies, nuclear-armed), Syria (undergoing revolution), Iraq (yeah), Bahrain + Yemen (successfully stifled revolutions), Iran (probably seeking nuclear armament, also historic enemies) • Russia • 8th largest reserves, 2nd largest producer • Taxes on oil = half of government revenue • $1 in oil pricing = $1.5 billion of revenue

  10. Buy America • Provisions requiring that spending goes to American companies • Political interest • Directness of stimulus • “Protectionism”—doesn’t give other countries a fair chance—triggers reciprocation • Trade = “escalatino” impact

  11. Buy America—Structure • UQ: Trade up now • L: Plan has to use Buy American, triggers protectionism • Spills over—economic ripples • Other countries’ statements • !: Protectionism bad • Trade connectivity = peace

  12. Elections • Presidential elections. They are happening. Read the news. • They matter. • Normal election year politics = gridlock, because any controversy is kryptonite • Infinite impacts. • Electoral college, not popular vote = some states matter more than others • Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, Iowa, North Carolina, Arizona, New Hampshire

  13. Elections—Structure • UQ: Obama/Romney will win now • L: Plan is unpopular/popular, making Obama/Romney lose • !: Obama/Romney good • Iran strikes • Economy • Warming/emissions/green tech • Immigration • Health care repeal

  14. Elections—Strategic/Tactical Notes • Two ways to get ahead on uniqueness: • Cut cards regularly. • Nate Silver = generally considered the best poll analyst in the country • Cut swing-state specific uniqueness/link modules to beat link turns • Elections debate often devolve to impacts v. impact turns—be prepared with uniqueness tricks and turn shields • Obama can’t fulfill his agenda, GOP will constrain him • Romney lacks political spine, will moderate once he’s elected

  15. Politics—Structure • UQ: X bill will pass • L/IL: Plan’s political fallout makes X bill not pass • !: X bill good

  16. Politics—Topic scenarios • Wind PTC • Jackson-Vanik/PNTR • Debt Ceilling/Fiscal Cliff Further down the road: • Immigration • Energy/emissions regulation • Health care repeal • CTBT

  17. Politics—Form • Extremely technical • Put it in the 1NR. • Three essential elements • Recent cards • Short/efficient cards • Lots of cards • Comparisons • Predictive vs. descriptive • Qualifications

  18. Politics—on the 2011-2012 topic • Infrastructure spending is generally unpopular • Cost • Pork • But it might also be kinda popular • Contractors • Public good • Stimulus/unemployment

  19. Political Capital • Simply: presidential ability to leverage his/her clout to pass bills • Public pressure • Back-room negotiating • Agenda setting • Have to win Obama would push the plan • Not simply a question of popularity/unpopularity of the president OR of the plan

  20. Politics—other links & link turns • Focus—has to work on one issue to get it passed • Agenda/docket—plan knocks another item off the legislative list • Winners win—classic 2AC answer • Winning passage of difficult legislation builds, not spends, political capital • Assumes political capital

  21. Videos I wanted to show • They are funny • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QNixDlRoMvA • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8UtRNCztVI • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HOgj2etJs3Y&feature=player_embedded • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdTgKarqTQ0 • http://www.theonion.com/video/man-becomes-gop-frontrunner-after-showing-no-inter,19678/

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