Arnaud Leclercq Partner, Lombard Odier Capital Partners

1. Prospects of the Russian Economy and Finances and their Role in the Global EconomyПерспективы российской экономики и финансовой системы и их роль в глобальной экономике Triangle Club InternationalMoscow, November 20, 2012 Arnaud Leclercq Partner, Lombard Odier Capital Partners

2. ПРОДЛЕНИЕ ЧЛЕНСТВА В КЛУБЕ 2013-2014 Клуб Триалог предоставляет действующим членам скидку в размере 10 % на продление членства в 2013-2014 гг. в случае, если взнос будет оплачен до 30 ноября 2012 г.:

3. EXTEND YOUR CLUB MEMBERSHIP FOR 2013-2014 The Trialogue Club will be happy to grant its members who decided to extend their membership for 2013-2014 with a 10% discount for the annual membership fee in case the payment will be made before November 30th

4. Prospects of the Russian Economy and Finances and their Role in the Global EconomyПерспективы российской экономики и финансовой системы и их роль в глобальной экономике Triangle Club InternationalMoscow, November 20, 2012 Arnaud Leclercq Partner, Lombard Odier Capital Partners

5. Russian economy is now recovering from 2008-2009 Quick overlook on major economic aspects: • Growth Growth was above 4.5% last two years and should be above 3.8% this year • Budget Last 12 years: mushrooming expenditures fuelled by 388% increase of oil prices between 2000 & 2008. By 2015, Russia might face a current account deficit • Employment Unemployment went down to 5.2% in August 2012, which is historically low. Increase of social expenditures had positive results. • Inflation & competitiveness Increase of social expenditures did not create inflation. In fact, it’s decreasing since 2008 and stabilised at 6.5%. • International trade During the first months of 2012, the trade surplus declined In 2013 & 2014, Russia will face the economic slowdown of its main economic partners. • Financial sector From June 2011 until June 2012, MinFin and CB have in fact financed 40% of the volume of credit increase. 5 2 ALC 20.11.2012

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8. Three aspects are creating some uncertainty for the near future: • Russia’s budget is still extremely vulnerable to oil price swings • General economic slowdown in the world. • Impact of shale gas resource Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 5 ALC 20.11.2012

9. Investment climate should be improved Economy is growing 3.8% - Capital outflows are still high 6 ALC 20.11.2012

10. RUSSIA & THE EURO CRISIS October 25 President V. Putin at the Valdai Club: “EU is not a true Federalism and has all inconvenient without the advantages” Russian authorities have contrarian views: • Support the construction of the EU (MID) • Criticism of the Eurozone (Kremlin) 7 ALC 20.11.2012

11. The cost of keeping the Euro vs the cost of exiting 8 ALC 20.11.2012

12. Russia, a Eurasian alternative centre of economic power • In its History, Russian has never been as strong as when it accepted to look East • Its relations with the West were an accumulation of wars, misunderstandings, humiliations • The true disconnection between the West and Russia is recent • Conversely, every time Russia based its equilibrium and strength on Asia and Eurasia, it succeeded in a much easier way • Recent partnerships with the East are doing well and remain promising 9 ALC 20.11.2012

13. Recent partnerships with the East remain promising • New pipelines to Japan and Korea • New silk road • Arctic oil & gas reserves • Good relationships with Central Asia States and India • Diplomatic warmth with Japan • All frontiers issues with China now solved By all means, Russia has to assume its Eurasian identity Developing countries start to cooperate directly between one another Russia can be more than a facilitator between the West and the East 10 ALC 20.11.2012

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