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Doug Kimmelman Senior Partner, Energy Capital Partners July 2014. About Energy Capital Partners. Fossil Generation. Midstream Gas. Energy Services. Environmental Infrastructure. Renewable Generation.
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Doug KimmelmanSenior Partner, Energy Capital PartnersJuly 2014
About Energy Capital Partners Fossil Generation Midstream Gas Energy Services Environmental Infrastructure Renewable Generation • A private equity firm focused on investing in North America’s energy infrastructure with $13 billion in equity and mezzanine fund commitments • Pursue both development and operating asset platforms; primarily North American focus
Select Investments* Midstream Power Generation Services $1.8 billion $1.8 billion $810 million • ECP Polaris Renewable Environmental $650 million $940 million Realized Investments * Total invested capital to date, includes LP Co-Investments Does not include discontinued deal pursuits under $5mm invested and certain deals that do not fit within the categories above: 21st Century Transmission, Centennial Renewable Power, ECP Western Peaking Company, ECP SunZia, Power Holdings of Illinois, ICE Energy and Texas Energy Future Co-Invest.
ECP / EquiPower Generation Investments Commercial Current Generating Fleet Capacity Operations Date Plant Type (MW) Efficiency Date Fund I Elwood Nov-06 Northfield Mountain Hydro 1,080 n / a 1973 Nov-06 Mt. Tom Coal 146 1960 Nov-06 CT / MA Hydro Hydro 216 n / a n / a Kincaid May-07 Waterbury Gas (CT) 96 2009 Jul-07 Empire Gas (CCGT) 635 7,024 2010 Masspower Empire Dec-07 • NextLight Solar 4,577 n / a Dighton Fund II Milford Brayton Point May-10 Lake Road (EquiPower) Gas (CCGT) 812 7,182 2002 Lake Road May-10 Dighton (EquiPower) Gas (CCGT) 178 7,561 1999 Stryker May-10 Masspower (EquiPower) Gas (CCGT) 265 8,338 1993 Richland Liberty Jan-11 Milford (EquiPower) Gas (CCGT) 555 7,131 2004 Oct-11 Liberty (EquiPower) Gas (CCGT) 583 7,046 2002 Jul-11 Odessa Gas (CCGT) 999 6,996 2001 Gas-fired Apr-12 Red Oak Gas (CCGT) 805 7,107 2002 Coal Dec-12 Broad River Gas (CT) 881 10,890 2000 - 2002 Aug-13 Elwood (EquiPower) Gas (CT) 735 10,730 1999 - 2001 Aug-13 Kincaid (EquiPower) Coal 1,093 10,450 1967 - 1968 Aug-13 Brayton Point Coal 1,528 9,753 1963 - 1974 • Richland (EquiPower) Gas (CT) 444 10,250 / 12,028 1967 - 2001 Dec-13 Dec-13 • Stryker (EquiPower) Gas (CT) 20 13,775 1967 Broad River Sold • Current Assets • ~8,00MWs, predominantly gas-fired • Regional diversity - 7 states, 4 major power markets • All environmentally compliant • Mix of merchant, short to medium-term hedges and long term, contracted assets
The Shale Revolution • The U.S. shale boom has experienced significant growth and we are still in very early days of the development of these vast resources; other nations are initiating shale exploration now • Why the U.S.? • Technological advances in hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling. Legal construct for private mineral rights ownership. Public comfort with drilling activity. Hydrocarbons found in largely rural regions. Existing interstate pipeline and rail systems. Well capitalized industry participants and capital markets support • Gas production growth is expected to continue due to an abundant low-cost resource base and strong demand growth in this low gas price environment • CERA estimates that nearly 1,000 Tcf of North American gas resources are economic at $4 / MMBtu, which equates to 37 years of supply at current levels of consumption Shale Gas as % of Total Gas Production U.S. Dry Shale Gas Production Growth Historical Forecast Source: Wood Mackenzie Source: U.S. EIA
North American Energy Revolution Economic / Environmental Positive Impact of Increased Shale Gas / Tight Oil Production Jobs Balance of Trade Tax Revenue Low Natural Gas Prices Energy Independence Environmental Benefits Other Implications Source: U.S. EIA
Shale Production has Transformed the Energy Landscape Expanded Shale Gas Production Greater Infrastructure Needs Growth in Field Services and Capital Spending Lower Natural Gas Prices LNG Export Potential Positive Natural Gas Vehicle Economics Fertilizer Lower Power Prices Coal-to-Gas Switching Pipelines Industrial Growth from Reduced Input Costs Petrochemicals Processing Displaced Coal & Nuclear Plants Shutdown Renewables Look More Expensive Reduced Domestic Coal Demand Compression Storage Environmental Benefits Greater Coal Exports
Shale Gas Environmental Concerns Real Evidence or Dislike of Any Fossil Fuel Production? • Water contamination / usage? • Seismic activity? • Methane gas leakage?
Low Natural Gas Prices and the Decline of Coal Generation Natural Gas Monthly Price U.S. Lower 48 Natural Gas Production Coal as % of U.S. Generation Source: U.S. EIA, SNL Energy
Power Generation: Supply Shrinkage • Low gas prices and tightening environmental rules are forcing retirements of uneconomic coal and oil generating units • Aging nuclear plants also retiring due to reduced margins, increasing capital expenditures and lack of public support • Minimal to no new power plant construction in today’s low gas and power price environment (except subsidized renewables) • Existing gas and coal-fired generation selling for a fraction of new build with significant upside as electricity supply/demand metrics tighten • Coal has shrunk from ~50% of total power supply to ~35% in 2013 • Seek favorable supply / demand dynamics and power market rules that compensate generators for recovery At-risk to retire Announced retirement Retired Total capacity (MW) As % of U.S. fuel type-specific fleet 17% 15% 25% Source: SNL
Renewables Will Make Up the Shortfall? Not even close… 2013 Power Generation Net Additions & Announced Retirements (Typical Capacity Factor “CF”) 20% CF 30% CF MWs 35% CF 95% CF 70% CF Source: IHS CERA, Ventryx, U.S. Energy Information Administration
Outlook for Renewable Penetration U.S. Renewable Power Penetration, 2020 Target Installed Renewable Capacity by Technology Renewable Penetration, 2013A and 2020 Target* • Robust growth expected through 2016; significant challenges lie thereafter • Major gains in technology open up economic opportunities, but not until after 2020 • Federal tax incentives (PTC and ITC) remain the most important determinant for the timing of wind and solar additions in the US through the end of this decade
Lower Carbon Dioxide Emissionsfrom Coal-to-Gas Switching Source: U.S. EIA
Sources of Greenhouse Gases Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Energy Consumption U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Economic Sector Commercial & Residential 10% Agriculture 10% Electricity 32% Industrial 20% Transportation 28% Source: U.S. EIA, 2011 Source: U.S. EPA, 2012
…New Infrastructure is Needed Existing Pipelines Bakken (Supply) Lacking Infrastructure Marcellus (Supply) Blue = Gas Red = Oil Green = Proposed Keystone XL Expansion Permian (Supply) Source: Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration.
LNG Estimated Landed Price • The U.S. has approved seven liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities; one under construction $/MMBtu Prices as of November 2013 Source: FERC,WaterborneEnergy, Inc.
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