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My Favorite Investment Today

My Favorite Investment Today. Chloe Lutts Jensen, Moderator All Cabot Analysts. Robin Carpenter. Global X Top Guru Holdings. “Famous managers’ most concentrated stock picks … tend to do better than (their) funds on the whole.” —Brendan Conway (Barron’s)

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My Favorite Investment Today

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  1. My Favorite Investment Today Chloe Lutts Jensen, Moderator All Cabot Analysts

  2. Robin Carpenter Global X Top Guru Holdings • “Famous managers’ most concentrated stock picks … tend to do better than (their) funds on the whole.” —Brendan Conway (Barron’s) • Top hedge fund positions from 13-F filings • Assets: $3.94 million • Equal-weighted stock holdings • Management fee: 0.75% • July YTD 25.9% (vs 14.4% NYSE Comp) • Positive alpha

  3. GURU Moving Alpha

  4. Roy Ward Trinity Industries (TRN) • Max Buy Price 39.54; Min Sell Price 55.49 • Current P/E is 11.3. Dividend Yield is 1.3% • Sales will rise 9% and EPS will climb 20% during the next 12 months • Trinity has a huge backlog of orders for railcars

  5. Michael Cintolo Facebook (FB)All the Characteristics of a Big Winner • Mass market • No competition • New opportunity (mobile) • Accelerating sales • EPS estimates, margins ramp

  6. Huge Blast Off = Accumulation

  7. Jacob Mintz Volatility as an Asset Class Options are Insurance • Geico/Allstate = Options Sellers • Selling Volatility on a broad equity index has a positive expected return premium over time, as the seller effectively provides insurance to the buyer of volatility.

  8. Over 20 years, the market has overpriced volatility by an average of 4.6 vol points • Implied volatility has exceeded realized volatility 88% of the time since 1990

  9. The Merrill Lynch vol/arb index enters into trades that monetize the difference between implied and realized volatility.

  10. Current Volatility Conditions • Vix at 13 • Realized 30 Day Volatility of SPX is 8 • A premium of 5 points

  11. Paul Goodwin Baidu.com (BIDU)

  12. Timothy Lutts Tesla (TSLA)

  13. TripAdvisor (TRIP)

  14. Tom Garrity Issue • Lots of great discoveries in medicine cannot reach their targets

  15. Big Idea: Delivery of Medicine • Because of medicine’s inability to rapidly cross extra-cellular matrix (ECM) into the lymphatic vasculature and capillary beds, they can't exert their therapeutic effects

  16. Halozyme (HALO) Patented enzymes allow drugs currently administered intravenously (IV) to be administered subcutaneously (SC) • Increased and faster absorption • Less frequently administered • Improved efficacy of existing therapies • Modify abnormal tissue

  17. Partnerships Milestones Payments plus Royalties • Hoffmann-La Roche ($13.8 billion in 2012) • Pfizer (Up to $570 million) • Baxter Healthcare ($1.59 billion in 2012) • ViroPharma Incorporated (Milestone Payments Plus 10% Royalties) • Intrexon Corporation ($54 million Plus Royalties)

  18. Halozyme Proprietary • Endocrinology • Oncology • Dermatology

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