CRDCN Conference: Evidence-based policy formation and evaluation UNB Fredericton

1. Early high school interventions to increase students’ access to post-secondary education: Experimental impacts CRDCN Conference: Evidence-based policy formation and evaluation UNB Fredericton Reuben Ford, PhD. October 23, 2012

2. Agenda • Rationale behind programs to pilot • Program model for two interventions: results to date • Early guarantee of grant • Career education • Conclusions: • Early interventions can make a difference to behaviour: increasing demand for and pursuit of education • Youth can be susceptible to quite modest intervention to make potentially major changes in their lives • Data to be made available for additional research via Statistics Canada

3. Canada has high rates of participation in post-secondary education: what is the problem? • Increasing the number of youth who participate in post-secondary education is an economic imperative (promoting growth, innovation and competiveness as population ages) as well as an effective means to promote social inclusion and to reduce social and health inequalities. • Post-secondary access rates could be higher, particularly for young people in key subgroups: • From lower-income families • From “first-generation” families • Students with low academic achievement • Aboriginal youth • Males • Rural youth • Older students • New Brunswick, BC and Alberta (School leavers survey and follow up: Butlin, 1999; Foley, 2001)

4. Why don’t they go on? • Main reason non-attendees at 18-20 give for not pursuing PSE: • Interplay between external and internal factors • e.g. financial barrier conditioned on how handle feelings about debt (Looker, 2002)

5. Why don’t they go on? • Qualitative studies (COGEM, UofA): • “for most underprivileged youth in Alberta, university isn’t even on the radar screen”; • “a lack of awareness about the value of post-secondary education, the scarcity of role models or the absence of encouragement are all barriers to higher learning” • Parents play an important role in students’ decisions • School officials play an important role only for a minority • If a young person has an “ideal” that involves PSE, which is likely to be heavily influenced by immediate or prevailing cultural environment, then PSE will become a goal – and vice versa. (Finnie and Mueller, 2012) • What can policy do to intervene? • Compensate or change?

6. Approaches to increase access to PSE: act earlier to change students’ education directions • Act early: most programs focus on high-school leavers • May be too late to change student education directions: decisions made earlier • Missing the opportunity to change behaviour during final phase of mass (compulsory) education • Test interventions that legitimize and support PSE pathways: • Earlier assurances on affordability, financial aid • Earlier career education on how to make decisions on PSE pathways, including information about costs and benefits of PSE • Academic preparation, encouragement and support to better take advantage of existing high school programming directed to PSE • Remove barriers to obtaining important and timely information • Make preparing for the future matter • Make preparing for the future easier to do

7. Future to Discover tests two of these interventions separately and in parallel • EYH: Explore Your Horizons Enhanced early career education in Grades 10, 11, and 12 • LA: Learning Accounts • Early guarantee of $8,000 grant to pursue PSE for lower-income students

8. EYH is a career education intervention that delivers workshops, magazines, Web site Six career education components delivered to a ‘new’ group: Workshops – 2 hours after school/evening sessions (x20) • Career Focusing (G10) – finding career focus • Lasting Gifts (G11) – parents become “career allies” • Future in Focus (G12) – preparing for transition • Post-secondary Ambassadors (G10-G12) • F2D Magazine (G10-G12) – sent to home • Web site for EYH students only (G10-G12)

9. LA provides an early guarantee of student aid to lower-income families • New Brunswick families with below median income (taken from both parents’ tax returns) • Account grows over Grades 10-12 • Total $8,000 grant available • Account closes at end of 3rd post-secondary year • Early promise of aid: enter Grade 10 knowing grant available • No obligation to apply for loans

10. A random sample of 4,400 Grade 9 students were randomly assigned in NB and 1,000 in MB

11. High school graduation and post-secondary impacts Measured at the start of third academic year following “expected” high school graduation: • Graduation (linked school records and YITS-style survey) • Applications to and enrolment in post secondary education (YITS-style survey) • University • Community College • Private Vocational Institutions • Apprenticeships • Enrolment in post secondary education (administrative data for provincial institutions) • University • Community College

12. LA impacts on graduation from high school - Fr

13. LA increased PSE applications - Fr

14. Strong evidence LA increased PSE enrolment: NB Francophone students ** * * *** ** *** **

15. EYH impacts on graduation from high school - Fr

16. EYH increased PSE applications - Fr

17. Strong evidence EYH increased PSE enrolment: NB Francophone students * * ** ** ** *** **

18. EYH+LA impacts on graduation from high school - Fr

19. EYH+LA increased PSE applications - Fr

20. Some evidence EYH+LA increased PSE enrolment: NB Francophone students ** ** ** *** **

21. LA increased graduation from high school - An

22. LA increased PSE applications - An

23. Weaker evidence LA increased PSE enrolment: NB Anglophone students ** * *** **

24. EYH increased graduation from high school - An

25. EYH increased PSE applications - An

26. No evidence EYH increased PSE enrolment overall: NB Anglophone students *** **

27. EYH+LA increased graduation from high school - An

28. EYH+LA increased PSE applications - An

29. Some evidence EYH+LA increased PSE enrolment: NB Anglophone students *** ** *** *** **

30. EYH modestly increased graduation from high school - MB

31. EYH did not increase PSE applications - MB

32. Little evidence EYH increased PSE enrolment: MB students * *** **

33. Conclusion: The impact of the interventions differed by population and sub-groups • Anglophone sector: significant impact on high school graduation and application (demand) • Follow up for longer? • Francophone sector: no significant impact on graduation, but significant impact on post-secondary application and participation rates • Interventions typically increase access for boys • Manitoba: not the type of program needed? • EYH and EYH+LA increased university enrolment. LA increased college enrolment. • LA is forecast to be very cost effective, generating $2+ benefit per dollar cost to government, sensitive to discount rate

34. Takeaways • Interventions can make a difference to behaviour • Youth can be susceptible to quite modest intervention to make potentially major changes in their lives • Work needed matching program to target group and system • Cannot ignore supply • More research needed Linked datasets, documentation prepared for Statistics Canada: • Grade 9 (baseline) , Grade 12 and PSE3 YITS-style surveys • Program management information • High school and post-secondary records • Financial aid receipt • Transfer to Statistics Canada in next 2 months