LWS Update ESWE Meeting 2014/06/09 SPOILER : The Sun is even m ore unpredictable than we thought

LWS UpdateESWE Meeting 2014/06/09SPOILER: The Sun is even more unpredictable than we thought Bob Leamon Living with a Star Discipline Scientist Heliophysics Division, NASA HQ

Proposals and Awards 2013 • 4 New Focus Teams in 2013 • Magnetic Flux Ropes from the Sun to the Heliosphere. 30 proposals, 2 funded (TST+1), average $396kTeam lead: Mark Linton, NRL • Short term solar/atmospheric variability and climate.10 proposals,2 funded (TST+1), average $327kTeam lead: Cora Randall, University of Colorado • Connection between Solar Interplanetary Structures and the response of Earth's radiation belts. 51 proposals, 3 funded (TST+2), average $253k Team lead: Alex Glocer, GSFC • Thermospheric wind dynamics during geomagnetic storms and their influence on the coupled magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere system. 29 proposals, 5 funded, average $130kTeam lead: TBD

Proposals and Awards 2013 • SDO Science Analysis • 57 proposals, 8 funded, average $114k • Workshops • 9 proposals, 3 funded, average $57k

FST Topics for ROSES 2014 • 3 New Focus Teams in 2014 • Prediction of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field Vector Bz at 1 AU • Physics-based methods to predict connectivity of SEP sources to points in the inner heliosphere, tested by location, timing, and longitudinal separation of SEPs. • Ion-Neutral Interactions in the Topside Ionosphere. • Plus “Physics of the Inner Heliosphere • Getting ready for Solar Probe Plus and Solar Orbiter • Estimated success rate 1:5

Just When You Thought it was Safe to Predict the Solar Cycle….

Signs of a Weakening Cycle #1:

Patterns of Flare Activity Only the Biggest Guys [Odenwald] From Leamon et al. (2014) The largest geomagnetic events recorded, the “extreme” events (EEs), appear to be skewed to the declining phase of sunspot cycles. Very few EEs in the ascending phase of cycles. Only a few EEs at sunspot maxima. Most EEs seem to occur in the declining phase. As we will see the latitudinal distribution of the EEs provides clues to what is going on.

Signs of a Weakening Cycle #2: Total Solar Irradiance Declining sunspot maxima over recent years Total Solar Irradiance is up only half of its rise in the last three cycles.

Signs of a Weakening Cycle #3: Spectral Irradiance UV, EUV and X-ray spectral irradiances are drivers of space weather. None of these wavelengths has reached the values of Solar Cycle 23. Lyman α is down 30% and He II 304 is down 50%

Signs of a Weakening Cycle #4: Polar Magnetic Field Strength Declining sunspot maxima over recent years Polar fields are weaker this cycle. The average polar field is passing through zero, a good indication we are near solar maximum.

When is Winter, Again? Terrestrial weather forecasters often have trouble predicting the timing and intensity of winter storms. We've learned to live with the uncertainty of wind and snow. It could be worse, though. What if weather forecasters had trouble predicting the timing and intensity of winter itself?"NOAA forecasters say there is a 40% chance that winter will begin in December this year, and a 20% chance that it will last for at least 3 months." This is, essentially, the state of forecasting the underlying rhythms of the sun.

The perfect time to surround the sun The sun is showing itself to be even more intractable and mysterious than experts imagined. NASA and other space agencies have responded, with impeccable timing, by surrounding the sun with an unprecedented fleet of solar observatories.

Hypothesis: On The Origin of Delta Spots The biggest, strongest, most complex active tend to appear on the periphery of the butterfly! [1920 - 1958] Pevtsov et al. (2013) …..the regions of the butterfly most strongly impacted by overlap.

If we might be entering into a period of extended low activity, does this mean that we may not have to worry about the sun? ABSOLUTELYNOT Heliophysics just got interesting

LWS Update ESWE Meeting 2014/06/09 SPOILER : The Sun is even m ore unpredictable than we thought