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Transcontinental Flight Capacity

Transcontinental Flight Capacity. Peter Cerussi Michael Gerson. Backstory. Effects of Sept 11, 2001 Shook America to it’s core Demonstrated vulnerabilities to attack Changed airport security procedures The airports are still vulnerable… Americans consider flight as a symbol of freedom

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Transcontinental Flight Capacity

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  1. Transcontinental Flight Capacity Peter Cerussi Michael Gerson

  2. Backstory • Effects of Sept 11, 2001 • Shook America to it’s core • Demonstrated vulnerabilities to attack • Changed airport security procedures • The airports are still vulnerable… • Americans consider flight as a symbol of freedom • Terrorist want to deny transcontinental travel M

  3. Problem Statement • How does the loss of an airport or airports effect the ability of the airlines to move people across country? M

  4. Nodes M

  5. Start Nodes M

  6. End Nodes M

  7. Example of Edges M

  8. Example of Capacity 1 1 3 2 1 2 M

  9. Data • Department of Transportation • Bureau of Transportation Statistics • Amount of flights per month • Divided by 31 for average daily flights P

  10. Example of an Attack 1 1 3 2 1 2 P

  11. Nodal Statistics Transcontinental Capacity: 1110 BOS SEA MSP JFK DEN ORD T SFO S IAD HOU SLC LAX ATL DFW End Nodes: Total flights: 3415 Start Nodes: Total flights: 1894 Largest Airports Atlanta 568 Chicago 501 Los Angeles 463 Denver 453 Phoenix 440 Dallas 421 Las Vegas 375 Houston 299 P

  12. Attacking Transcontinental Travel • Terrorist attack transcontinental travel 440 440 ∞ S E M P

  13. Attacking Transcontinental Travel Destroy M

  14. Attacking Transcontinental Travel Destroy M

  15. Comparative Results Largest Airports Attacked Airports Los Angeles 463 San Francisco 276 Seattle 211 San Diego 202 Phoenix 440 Las Vegas 375 Denver 453 Salt Lake City 219 • Atlanta 568 • Chicago 501 • Los Angeles463 • Denver 453 • Phoenix 440 • Dallas 421 • Las Vegas 375 • Houston 299 M

  16. Operator Resilience Curve M

  17. FBI Involvement • The initial plan is to attack the west coast • FBI was alerted to the plan and intervenes • Resource restrictions are limited to four nodes • The four largest nodes are protected • Seattle • San Francisco • Los Angeles • San Diego P

  18. FBI Involvement Destroy P

  19. FBI Involvement Destroy P

  20. Comparative Results Largest Airports Attacked Airports Phoenix 463 Las Vegas 276 Denver 211 Dallas 202 Houston 440 New York 375 Atlanta 453 • Atlanta 568 • Chicago 501 • Los Angeles463 • Denver 453 • Phoenix 440 • Dallas 421 • Las Vegas 375 • Houston 299 P

  21. Comparative OR Curve P

  22. New Assumption • Travelers will have no more than 2 layovers 440 440 ∞ S E M

  23. Nodal Statistics Transcontinental Capacity: 480 BOS SEA MSP JFK DEN ORD T S SFO IAD HOU SLC LAX ATL DFW End Nodes: Total flights: 3415 Start Nodes: Total flights: 1894 Largest Airports Atlanta 568 Chicago 501 Los Angeles 463 Denver 453 Phoenix 440 Dallas 421 Las Vegas 375 Houston 299 M

  24. Attacking Transcontinental Travel Destroy M

  25. Attacking Transcontinental Travel Destroy M

  26. Operator Resilience Curve 0% M

  27. New Assumption • Travelers will have no more than 2 layovers • Attacks degrade airports • If attacked airports capacity is 50% • A second attack and the airport is destroyed M1 220 ∞ 440 440 S E 220 ∞ M2 P

  28. Attacking Transcontinental Travel Degrade Destroy P

  29. Attacking Transcontinental Travel P

  30. Operator Resilience Curve 2 0% P

  31. New Assumption • Travelers will have no more than 2 layovers • Attacks degrade airports • If attacked airports capacity is 20% • A second attack and the airport is destroyed M1 352 ∞ 440 440 S E 88 ∞ M2 M P

  32. Attacking Transcontinental Travel M

  33. Attacking Transcontinental Travel M

  34. Operator Resilience Curve 3 0% M

  35. Conclusion • If there is terrorist chatter regarding attacks on transcontinental travel, authorities can predict the location of the attacks • If there is terrorist chatter regarding attacks on the west coast, authorities should be prepared for significant lose in transcontinental travel • Airports should be designed such that they are difficult to completely destroy P

  36. Follow-Implementations • Change the start and end airports • Adjust the damage levels • Adjust the number of attacks per airport • Add additional nodes

  37. Questions Transcontinental Flight Capacity Peter Cerussi Michael Gerson P

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