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Six Drivers

THE BRENTHURST FOUNDATION African Futures and Drivers More Important or More Impoverished? Greg Mills. Six Drivers. People Growth and Differentiation Democracy and Conflict Resources Food Competitiveness and Technology. DRIVER ONE: People. SSA Population: 1950-2050.

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Six Drivers

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  1. THE BRENTHURST FOUNDATIONAfrican Futures and DriversMore Important or More Impoverished?Greg Mills

  2. Six Drivers • People • Growthand Differentiation • Democracy and Conflict • Resources • Food • Competitiveness and Technology

  3. DRIVER ONE: People

  4. SSA Population: 1950-2050 Source: United Nations

  5. Some facts worth pondering … • Between 1950 and 2050, Asia’s population will have grown by a factor of 3.7. Africa’s population, from 2000 to 2100, will grow by a factor of 5.18. • Growth rates are driven by lifespan increases and birth-rates (average is 4.9 children per woman 2005-2010). • Eg. Tanzania: 45 million people today; 2100, projected 276 million. Nigeria: 160m today, one billion by 2100. • Just 56 percent of Africans are at working-age. Dependency ratios will improve radically. • A demographic dividend is possible. • One in four young people will, by 2025, be from SSA.

  6. The Urbanization Phenomenon Source: United Nations

  7. DRIVER TWO: Growth & Differentiation

  8. Much has been achieved – • 40+ democracies • Range of donors and allies • Governance improved • Growth over 5% • More honest inward scrutiny • Commodities revival … Differentiation important phenomenon

  9. 70+% African exports still oil & other minerals

  10. DRIVER THREE: Democracy & Conflict

  11. DRIVER FOUR: Food

  12. ‘A hungry man is an angry man’. RailaOdinga

  13. Africa’s net food importers

  14. Africa’s net food importers: 39 of 49

  15. Cereal Yields (Kg/Ha) in Developing Countries 5000 4500 East Asia & Pacific 4000 3500 Latin America & Caribbean 3000 South Asia 2500 Middle East & North Africa 2000 Just 20% of Africa’s 400m ha arable land currently cultivated 1500 Sub - Saharan Africa 1000 500 0 1961 2005

  16. Thank you very much

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