The future of English Implications for BNCs

1. The future of EnglishImplications for BNCs Ricardo Romero Oxford University Press

2. The plan for today • Demographic, political, economic and language trends in the world • Implications for Bi-national centers • The road ahead

3. Talking about the future…

4. David Crystal “World Englishes)”David Graddol “The future of English” David Graddol “English Next”

5. Analysis • Political changes in the world • Demography • World population • Information technology • Economy • Education and mobility

6. Age and needs

7. Widening of student age and need • Over the next decade there will be a complex and changing mix of learner needs. More children will register to learn English

8. Changing number of learners

9. The rise and fall of learners • A massive increase in the number of people learning English has already begun, and is likely to reach a peak of around 2 billion in the next 10-15 years. Numbers of learners will then decline.

10. People learning English 1960-2050

11. Non-native speakers

13. Rising competition • Non-native speaker providers of ELT services will create major competition to the UK and the US (Reaction to certification and standardization)

14. Trends in international students

15. Irreversible trend in international students • The recent decline in international students studying in the main English speaking countries is unlikely to reverse.

16. Trends in international higher education (Marguerite J. Dennis, 2007) International higher education, a $300 billion industry The United States is attracting a declining share of foreign students. 1970 market share of 36.7% 1995 market share of 30% 2004 market share of 25% 2007 market share of 22%.

17. The net contribution to the U.S. economy by foreign students and their families for 2005-06 is almost 13.5 billion dollars. • Although the decline in international student enrollment in the United States was exacerbated by the events of September 11, 2001, the decline began before then.

18. Monolingual and Native Speakers

19. The doom of monolingualism • Monolingual English speakers face a bleak economic future and the barriers preventing them from learning other languages are rising rapidly.

20. Irrelevance of native speakers • Native-speaker norms are becoming less relevant as English becomes a component of basic education in many countries.

21. Growth of languages on the internet • The dominance of English on the internet is declining. Other languages, including lesser-used languages, are now proliferating.

24. The economic advantage is ebbing away • The competitive advantage which English has historically provided its acquirers (personally, organizationally, and nationally) will ebb away as English becomes a near-universal basic skill. The need to maintain the advantage by moving beyond English will be felt more acutely.

25. Retraining needed for English specialists • Specialist English teachers will need to acquire additional skills as English is less often taught as a subject on its own. • CLIL • Global issues • Psychology • other

26. The end of English as a Foreign Language

27. Implications for BNCs • Certification and accreditation • Re-directing student orientation for studies abroad • Diversification in exam administration • Young learners • General English wider scope • Special English exam • More resources for children’s programs • Changing paradigms for adult programs

28. Implications for BNCs • Redefining teacher’s profiles • Retraining teachers (CLIL) • International certification for teachers • A bigger competition for quality teachers • Strategic alliances with universities for teacher training opportunities • Diversification in our programs • The need to be recognized as binational institutions of technical assistance

29. Thank you!Ricardo.Romero@oup.com