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Development of Hurricane Rita Evacuation Trip Tables for the Houston-Galveston Region

Development of Hurricane Rita Evacuation Trip Tables for the Houston-Galveston Region. Jim D. Benson, Texas Transportation Institute Chris Van Slyke, Houston-Galveston Area Council Alan C. Clark, Houston-Galveston Area Council. Today’s Presentation. Dimensioning The Problem

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Development of Hurricane Rita Evacuation Trip Tables for the Houston-Galveston Region

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  1. Development of Hurricane Rita Evacuation Trip Tables for the Houston-Galveston Region Jim D. Benson, Texas Transportation Institute Chris Van Slyke, Houston-Galveston Area Council Alan C. Clark, Houston-Galveston Area Council TRB Planning Applications Conference

  2. Today’s Presentation • Dimensioning The Problem • Study Area And Data Base • Trip Generation Models • Trip Distribution Models • Time-of-day Factors • Developing Alternative Scenarios TRB Planning Applications Conference

  3. Hurricane Rita – Sept 2005 TRB Planning Applications Conference

  4. Evacuation Zones TRB Planning Applications Conference

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  6. Example Evacuation Speeds Morning 9/22 TRB Planning Applications Conference

  7. H-GAC Study Area TRB Planning Applications Conference

  8. Houston TranStar Rita Evacuation Survey • Solicited participation on website • Participants responded to questions online • 6,570 respondents • 6,286 usable household responses • 3,886 households evacuated by car or truck TRB Planning Applications Conference

  9. Evacuation Generation Models • Models developed for Rita event • Structured to facilitate exploring different evacuation scenarios TRB Planning Applications Conference

  10. APPROACH • Six-day event modeled • Cross-classification variables: • 6 geographical districts • 5 household size groups • Production models: • Probability of evacuating • Vehicle trips/evacuation household • Trip purpose split • Simple attraction models • Non-resident trip models TRB Planning Applications Conference

  11. Six Districts TRB Planning Applications Conference

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  15. Internal Evacuation Attractions TRB Planning Applications Conference

  16. External Station Evacuation Attractions • Distributed attractions to other urban areas based on their population and relative accessibility • Allocated results to external stations TRB Planning Applications Conference

  17. Rita Evacuation Generation Results TRB Planning Applications Conference

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  20. Two Trip Distribution Models • Evacuation trips to internal zones • Evacuation trips to external stations TRB Planning Applications Conference

  21. Distribution Model For Internal Attractions • Essentially a “constrained interactance” model • No friction factors • No iterative process • Constrained to productions • Interaction constraint • Productions allocated to eligible attraction zones based on relative attractiveness TRB Planning Applications Conference

  22. Interaction Constraint • No attractions to zones in the 3 mandatory evacuation areas • Eligible attraction zones must be either: • Further from the coast, OR • 80+ miles from the coast TRB Planning Applications Conference

  23. Distribution Model For External Station Attractions • Similar to traditional external-local models • Primary difference: external stations are treated the attractions • Somewhat relaxed version of the normal external-local friction factors used TRB Planning Applications Conference

  24. TRIP DISTRIBUTION RESULTS TRB Planning Applications Conference

  25. Time-of-day Factors • Estimated from survey data • Developed for each of the six districts • Hourly Distribution for 6-day Event TRB Planning Applications Conference

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  28. Developing Alternative Scenarios • Consider adjustments to % households evacuating by district • Consider adjusting hourly distributions by district • Consider adjusting vehicle trip rates to reflect taking fewer vehicles by district TRB Planning Applications Conference

  29. Questions? TRB Planning Applications Conference

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