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MEA 593 Climate Risk Analysis for Adaptation Instructor – Fredrick Semazzi Lecture-1: Introduction

MEA 593 Climate Risk Analysis for Adaptation Instructor – Fredrick Semazzi Lecture-1: Introduction. MEA 501/ST 501 Fundamentals of Climate Change Science (3 Credit Hrs) MEA 502/ST 502 Climate Risk Analysis for Adaptation (3 Credit Hrs)

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MEA 593 Climate Risk Analysis for Adaptation Instructor – Fredrick Semazzi Lecture-1: Introduction

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  1. MEA 593 Climate Risk Analysis for Adaptation Instructor – Fredrick Semazzi Lecture-1: Introduction

  2. MEA 501/ST 501 Fundamentals of Climate Change Science (3 Credit Hrs) • MEA 502/ST 502 Climate Risk Analysis for Adaptation (3 Credit Hrs) • MEA 503 Internship project: Working on a management/climate decision problem mutually designed and supervised by faculty and host institution managers (6 Credit Hrs) NC STATE UNIVERSITY climate-psm.meas.ncsu.edu

  3. MEA 593 - “Climate Risk Analysis for Adaptation, S2013”Course Syllabus Course Objectives The course reviews current status regarding knowledge about the fundamentals of climate variability & climate change science, climate change analysis tools and data, national and international activities in support of climate services and research framework & analysis of climate change case studies . The course also provides experience for students in hands-on analysis of climate risks & development of adaptation and mitigation management strategies/policies in climate-sensitive application sectors. Course Topics • Overview of the fundamentals of climate change science • Observational and model data, climate indices construction, interpretation & use for describing the state and the changes in the climate system; El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), etc • Analysis of data to inspect, clean, transform, and model data with the goal of highlighting useful information, suggesting conclusions and support decision making; calculation and interpretation of climatological conditions, calculation and interpretation of the variance, standard deviation, correlation, dominant modes of climate variability (calculation of the modes not required) and other statistical attributes of the data • Concepts of climate models’ ensembles, confidence levels, uncertainty, quality of forecast systems, forecast system added value • International Climate Services Experiment (International Climate Outlook Forum Program) • International Climate Services Program (Global Framework for Climate Services; GFCS) comprehensive global, policy neutral, operational, capability to facilitate more effective use of climate information • Climate Change Adaptation & Uncertainty • Technologies to Manage Climate Risks • Economics of Climate Change Adaptation • Capacity to support Climate Change Adaptation • Barriers to climate change adaptation • Climate Change Adaptation in the US • Climate Change Adaptation in Developing Countries Reference Material IPCC AR5 Reports - http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1l climlab.meas.ncsu.edu http://unfccc.int/ttclear/pdf/Workshops/tobago/BackgroundPaper.pdf http://static.weadapt.org/placemarks/files/425/50b4e3408b75deca-shaping-climate-resilent-development.pdf http://static.weadapt.org/placemarks/files/807/507c1ffb537f5accca-narrative-report-final.pdf http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/11/29/1007887107.full.pdf+html http://static.weadapt.org/knowledge-base/files/1103/50ae0324a2a3fecoadapt-greatlakesadaptation.pdf http://www.worldresourcesreport.org/files/wrr/papers/wrr_reeder_and_ranger_uncertainty.pdf http://www.worldresourcesreport.org/files/wrr/papers/wrr_ranger_uncertainty.pdf

  4. MEA 593 Climate Risk Analysis for Adaptation - 3 Credit-Hour (Spring 2013) – Information Instructor – Fredrick Semazzi; Technical Assistant - Kara Smith • Course Locker: http://climlab.meas.ncsu.edu/mea593_Climate_Risk_Analysis_for_Adaptation/index.html • Prerequisites: Fundamentals of Climate Change Science • Days: Tuesday & Thursday; Time: 03:00-04:15 pm; Lecture Room: 1112 Jordan Hall • Instructor: Dr. Fredrick Semazzi, Office-Jordan Hall Room 4144; email-fred_semazzi@ncsu.edu; Office Hours-Tuesday & Thursday before class, 02.00–03.00 pm. • Course Objectives: The course reviews current status regarding knowledge about the fundamentals of climate variability & climate change science, climate change analysis tools and data, national and international activities in support of climate services and research framework & analysis of climate change case studies . The course also provides experience for students in hands-on analysis of climate risks & development of adaptation and mitigation management strategies/policies in climate-sensitive application sectors. • Grading scheme • Assignments: (case study reviews presentations, 20%-schedule to start after midterm exam; quizzes, 10%); 30% • Mid-term exam (February 27th, regular class time); 30% • Outline for the class report (identification of application sector, literature review, plan for addressing the topics to be covered in the final class report, preliminary results of your analysis, conclusions and recommendations-March 18th); 10% • Final class report 30% (Thursday, May 1st 2014, 1-4pm; presentation 10%; written report 20%); previous class report examples will be provided • Note: Final class project report will be presented and submitted during the time slot assigned for the final exam (http://www.ncsu.edu/registrar/calendars/examsprg.html). • A+ 97-100%; A 93-96%; A- 89-92%; B+ 85-88%; B 81-84%; B- 77-80%; C+ 73-76%; C 69-72%; C- 65-68%; D+ 61-64%; D 57-60%; D- 53-56%; F 52% & below. • Final class report (written component, 20%) comprising the following components: • Executive Summary-2 points • General introduction discussing literature review about the relationships between climate and the social-economic sector of interest-3 points • Identification & discussion of sector-specific policy/management options (PO) that could benefit from the use of climate informatiom-3 points • Evidence of relationships of climate indices (CI) and sector-specific performance-3 points • Confidence in climate model information based on past/present climate-3 points • Climate change model projections of the relevant CI indices and projected implications for the management of the sector-3 points • Conclusions and recommendations, including information about uncertainty, for the sector to use climate change projections information to improve its management-3 points • The work may include your calculations. Any quantitative or semi-quantitative statements in the report should be backed up by previous literature and/or your analysis. The report text should be no more than the equivalent of 10 single-spaced pages (12-size font) & not including figures. Maximum of 10 figures allowed. • FYI- 2014 Sp. Semester Academic Calendar: http://www.ncsu.edu/registrar/calendars/academicsprg.htm

  5. Examples of Adaptation to Climate Change

  6. Example based on Town of Nags Head Outer Banks, North Carolina Climate PSM Coastal Resources Decision Module Town of Nags Head, NC

  7. Town of Nags Head Outer Banks, North Carolina Climate PSM Coastal Resources Decision Module Oregon Inlet in North Carolina, supports an active commercial fishing and recreational boating. Oregon Inlet was formed when a hurricane lashed the Outer Banks in 1846, separating Bodie Island from Pea Island. One ship that rode out that storm in Pamlico Sound was named the Oregon. After the storm the crew members of this ship were the first to tell those on the mainland about the inlet's formation. Hence, it has been known as Oregon Inlet ever since. Akin to many other inlets along the Outer Banks, Oregon Inlet moves southward due to drifting sands during tides and storms. It has moved south over two miles since 1846, averaging around 66 feet per year.

  8. Other Inlets

  9. Low Freq. Lake Eddies Geology; preservation of coastline with sea level rise; sand dynamics; US Army Corps of Engineers & ICR. Agriculture: Tide Water Research Station; focus on grain & swine; Ag extension services; farm management; policy/choosing species; effects of SLR on salt water seepage via roadside canals. Hydrology; new inlets; back up of roadside canals with salty water which impacts agriculture; dragging of sand to keep inlets open; finite number of inlets open, new ones created old ones close up. Fisheries, ecology: to lay eggs fish travel ocean to sound & estuaries; new/closing inlets has consequences; sea grass habitat largest in US. Climate Adaptation North Carolina Coastal Resources Political Science: example of NC legislature; New NC SLR Bill see original doc; public policy issues for adaptation, mitigation. Communication: Packaging/communicating/sampling information for public. Statistics; Nor'easter/hurricane frequency opening up new inlets; sand accumulation; prediction of formation of new inlets. Engineering; bridge construction, dragging, road construction options using the 3 US Army Corps. scenarios; electricity potential at inlets a function of water flow. Tourism:(attractions at risk); hotels to stay; road system at risk; fisheries vulnerability; erosion of prime beach area. Economics; constructionpermits; coastal insurance; different rates for old & new property; public beach vs private property; example of condemned homes; 2 rows lost. Cloud Cover

  10. Application Sectors Information Academic Research Programs Outcomes PIRE Climate Prediction Research NCSU MEAS & STAT KNUST, Ghana Data Analysis Tools Google Earth Pilot Project Google.org UCAR NCSU KNUST, Ghana Climate Change Information City of Nags Head Tide Water Research Station (extension Services) US Army Corps of Engineers Meningitis Environmental Risk Information Technologies MERIT, NHRC Ghana WHO, UNICEF, Red Cross & NGOs NCSU Communications Dept. Adaptation, Mitigation, Public Policy & the Coast Business As Usual (BAU) Decision System Translational Analysis Deployment & Services Application of Climate Information to Coastal Sectors of North Carolina PSM Coastal Resources 502/3 Modules US Army Corps of Engineers UNC Coastal Studies Institute East Carolina UniversityTideWater Research Station Enhanced Decision Decision Tools Tools Tools Deployment to Critical Targets

  11. Related Websites http://skagit.meas.ncsu.edu/~helena http://www.ce.ncsu.edu/faculty/margery-overton http://www.cmast.ncsu.edu https://nccwsc.usgs.gov/?q=relationshipCSCs_LCCs http://www.northatlanticlcc.org http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5uhHEJDzP-E http://www.ncwaterman.com/images/nautical_charts/OcracokeInlet.jpg

  12. Hydroelectric Power Production-Adaptation to Climate Change Observed Rainfall Precipitation: 2071-2100 Water Balance Model R+Qin-E=Qout+Δlake level Hydroelectric Dam Operation and Projected Energy Production (Dam Cost approx $ 1 Billion) Projected Probabilities for Lake levels for different release policies Projected Changes in Lake Level In Future to Use CORDEX & Other Model Formulations

  13. Conservation of Wetlands-Adaptation to Climate Change Observed Rainfall Precipitation: 2071-2100 HyVIC to Use CORDEX Output & More Advances Model Formulations Water Balance Model R+Qin-E=Qout+Δlake level Lake Level Rise could destroy prime beach tourism property, infrastructure, roads, etc Projected Flooding Potential in Kampala, Capital City of Uganda, on the Shores of Lake Victoria Projected Changes in Lake Level

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