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Navigating the Evolution of Official Statistics in the Modern U.S. Economy

Explore the vital role of official statistics in a modern society from a U.S. perspective. Delve into the challenges and gaps in measuring services, the impact of globalization on service sector growth, and the importance of accurate data in economic decision-making. Discover insights on service industry coverage, depth, and future challenges.

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Navigating the Evolution of Official Statistics in the Modern U.S. Economy

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  1. Remarks to the World CongressMay 12, 2008Role of Official Statistics in a Modern Society: A U.S. Perspective Keith Hall Commissioner Bureau of Labor Statistics

  2. What the future should bring • The importance of services in our domestic and international economy • Challenges and gaps in the measurement of services in the U.S. economy: Past, Present and Future • Globalization and future measurement challenges

  3. Services as a percent of U.S. GDP, 1960-2007 59% 41.4%

  4. U.S. trade relative to GDP, 1960-2007 28.9% 9.5%

  5. The growth in U.S. service sector employment as a share of total U.S. employment

  6. Change in payroll employment during recessions, 1953-2001

  7. The Growing Contribution of Non-Manufacturing Industries to U.S. Productivity: • There still may be measurement problems for many industries, especially in finance, health care, education and construction. • New data have been coming on line and the situation may be improving.

  8. What the future should bring • The importance of services in our domestic and international economy • Challenges and gaps in the measurement of services in the U.S. economy: Past, Present and Future • Globalization and future measurement challenges

  9. Price indexes for domestically produced services • Coverage of domestically produced, in-scope services in the BLS Producer Price Program has been a real success story, although even today, significant gaps in coverage remain.

  10. In-scope services output covered by PPI, 2001 to 2007

  11. Coverage of services • Sectors with little or no coverage • Educational services • Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation • Management of Companies and Enterprises • Other Services (Repair and Maintenance) • Significant gaps within covered sectors • Health Care and Social Assistance (office of dentists, continuing care retirement communities, freestanding ambulatory surgical and emergency centers ) • Finance and Insurance (credit card issuing and reinsurance) • Professional services (computer systems design, research and development) • Administrative and Support Services (telemarketing bureaus)

  12. Depth of Coverage of Services • Service industry coverage: • 571 service industries • PPI publishes indexes representing : • 100 service industries • 125 retail and wholesale trade industries • Planned increase in coverage of Wholesale Trade • PPI publishes 2 aggregate indexes for merchant wholesale trade • We plan to publish 18 wholesale trade 4 digit NAICS industries on a post-stratified basis • International coverage of services: • We don’t have this as percent of output, just whether or not each country has service industry indexes – wait for Bonnie’s email

  13. FYI: CPI Services • Measurement objective – average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer purchased services. • Weight of services in the CPI ALL ITEMS 100.000 Services 58.731 • Price change CPI services vs. commodities 1998 – 2007 Services + 37.7% Commodities + 20.3%

  14. What the future should bring • The importance of services in our domestic and international economy • Challenges and gaps in the measurement of services in the U.S. economy: Past, Present and Future • Globalization and future measurement challenges

  15. Future challenges • Capturing global movements of production and labor • Capturing price changes when production shifts from being domestic to foreign sourced. • The increasingly blurred distinction between Wholesale Trade and Manufacturing resulting from globalization trends

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