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An Evaluation of Changing Patterns in EU Trade Policy and EU’s Role in the Global Economy

Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. info@ecipe.org, www.ecipe.org. An Evaluation of Changing Patterns in EU Trade Policy and EU’s Role in the Global Economy Reflections on Relations with Turkey. Presentation, IKV/Yeditepe Conference, Istanbul, May 14, 2010. Fredrik Erixon www.ecipe.org.

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An Evaluation of Changing Patterns in EU Trade Policy and EU’s Role in the Global Economy

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  1. Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. info@ecipe.org, www.ecipe.org An Evaluation of Changing Patterns in EU Trade Policy and EU’s Role in the Global Economy Reflections on Relations with Turkey Presentation, IKV/Yeditepe Conference, Istanbul, May 14, 2010 Fredrik Erixon www.ecipe.org

  2. Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. info@ecipe.org, www.ecipe.org Fredrik Erixon’s A Short History of Nearly Everything In General and For Everyone

  3. Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. info@ecipe.org, www.ecipe.org My Presentation • EU Trade: Some reflections • The role of trade for structural change • The role of China in EU trade and growth • EU and the global economic crisis • EU-Turkey relations: some reflections

  4. Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. info@ecipe.org, www.ecipe.org EU trade expansion continues

  5. Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. info@ecipe.org, www.ecipe.org Trade Sector Growth (in %-units)

  6. Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. info@ecipe.org, www.ecipe.org Share of national export in world export

  7. Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. info@ecipe.org, www.ecipe.org Globalization of supply chains

  8. Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. info@ecipe.org, www.ecipe.org Structural features of EU trade and growth • Trade has a central role in EU growth and structural change • Especially with unflexible labour markets/wages • EU trade increasingly global – shifting Eastwards • Trade expansions reflects fragmentation of supply chains • China plays a remarkably important role in EU trade and structural change

  9. Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. info@ecipe.org, www.ecipe.org

  10. Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. info@ecipe.org, www.ecipe.org

  11. Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. info@ecipe.org, www.ecipe.org

  12. Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. info@ecipe.org, www.ecipe.org EU trade: some reflections • Services: slow GDP and trade growth, esp of high-yielding services • Partially offensive abroad, but defensive at home • Service sector growth in EU largely reflects expansion of public sector

  13. Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. info@ecipe.org, www.ecipe.org Average No. of employed(Sweden, 100’s)

  14. Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. info@ecipe.org, www.ecipe.org EU trade: some reflections • EU is not protectionist and not moving in that direction • Problems remain, but not going in the wrong direction • ”Diminishing giant” syndrome

  15. Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. info@ecipe.org, www.ecipe.org

  16. Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. info@ecipe.org, www.ecipe.org EU-Turkey relations: some reflections • Unbalanced dependency • Trade has not expanded as fast as possible

  17. Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. info@ecipe.org, www.ecipe.org EU-Turkey relations: some reflections

  18. Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. info@ecipe.org, www.ecipe.org EU trade balance in Machinery and Transport (Mn EUR)

  19. Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. info@ecipe.org, www.ecipe.org EU trade balance in manufacture goods (mn EUR)

  20. Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. info@ecipe.org, www.ecipe.org EU trade balance in food, drinks, tobacco (mn EUR)

  21. Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. info@ecipe.org, www.ecipe.org EU-Turkey relations: some reflections • EU-Turkey trade dependencies are weakening • Turkey’s trade profile suggests EU membership, not CU or AA • Turkey’s role in EU structural change is weak, but EU’s role in Turkey’s structural change very strong • EU input import from Turkey not significant; automotive sector is an exception • Low inward FDI from EU; little substitution • Agriculture, agriculture, agriculture: however, trade diversion • Services: potentially strong contribution from Turkey to structural change and growth

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