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Model description

Assessment of contributions to climate change: Results from CICERO UNFCCC Expert meeting, Bracknell, 25-27 September 2002 Bård Romstad , Jan Fuglestvedt and Terje Berntsen CICERO, Norway. Model description. Simple Climate Model (SCM) (Fuglestvedt and Berntsen , 1999)

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Model description

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  1. Assessment of contributionsto climate change:Results from CICEROUNFCCC Expert meeting, Bracknell, 25-27 September 2002Bård Romstad, Jan Fuglestvedt and Terje BerntsenCICERO, Norway

  2. Model description • Simple Climate Model (SCM) (Fuglestvedt and Berntsen, 1999) • Incorporates an energy-balance climate/up-welling diffusion ocean model developed by Schlesinger et al. (1992) • A CO2 scheme from Joos et al. (1996) • Lifetimes and concentration-forcing relations from IPCC TAR • Includes 32 source gases • Global radiative forcing is calculated for 35 components • Global-mean ΔT and ΔSL from ocean thermal expansion (and melting of glaciers) (Schlesinger et al., 1992)

  3. Model description (cont.) • The model source code can be obtained by contactingbard.romstad@cicero.uio.noorj.s.fuglestvedt@cicero.uio.no

  4. Emission database (CDIAC/EDGAR/SRES) ASIA ALM OECD World ALM REF REF OECD World ASIA Results (dT,dSL) Results (dT,dSL) Results (dT,dSL) Results (dT,dSL) Results (dT, dSL) World OECD REF ASIA ALM Model setup for attribution calculation SCM Attribution calculation

  5. Emission database (CDIAC/EDGAR/SRES) World OECD REF ASIA ALM Model input (emission perturbations)

  6. SCM ASIA REF OECD World ALM Results (dT,dSL) Results (dT,dSL) Results (dT,dSL) Results (dT,dSL) Results (dT, dSL) World OECD REF ASIA ALM Model output (dT) Attribution calculation

  7. Results (dT,dSL) Results (dT,dSL) Results (dT,dSL) Results (dT,dSL) Results (dT, dSL) Model output (all regions)

  8. World dT and regional deviations (stacked) 4.5 4 ALM attribution ASIA attribution 3.5 REF attribution OECD attribution 3 Total dT 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 Attribution calculation Attribution calculation

  9. Attribution calculation (αr)DEFAULT: CO2, CH4 and N2O perturbations from 1890-2000

  10. Attribution from CO2, CH4 and N2O, 1890-2000

  11. All forcingagents AllGHGs Kyotobasket 1890 2100 Attribution calculation period CO2,CH4N2O CO2 1890 1950 2000 2100 Historical Emissions Scenario Emissions Model setup for sensitivity study Gases Emission sources+sinks Time frame

  12. Time frame sensitivity • Emission attribution periods • 1890-2000 (default) • 1950-2000 • 1890-2100 • 1950-2100

  13. Time frame sensitivity (em start and end)DEFAULT: CO2, CH4 and N2O attribution from 1890-2000

  14. Time frame sensitivity (cont.) • Emission attribution periods • 1890-2000 (default) • 1950-2000

  15. Timeframe sensitivity (em start only)DEFAULT: CO2, CH4 and N2O attribution from 1890-2000

  16. Scope sensitivity • Sensitivity due to inclusion/exclusion of gases • CO2 only • CO2, CH4 and N2O (default) • Kyoto basket • (all cases with emission attribution period 1890-2000)

  17. Gases includedDEFAULT: CO2, CH4 and N2O attribution from 1890-2000

  18. Attribution from CO2 only , 1890-2000

  19. Attribution from CO2, CH4 and N2O, 1890-2000

  20. Attribution from all Kyoto-gases, 1890-2000

  21. Source sensitivity • Sensitivity due to exclusion of LUCF • Attribution period 1890-2000

  22. SourcesDEFAULT: CO2, CH4 and N2O attribution from 1890-2000

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