The Arctic in the Anthropocene Emerging Research Questions

1. The Arctic in the AnthropoceneEmerging Research Questions Study sponsors: DOE, NASA, NOAA, NSF, Smithsonian, USARC Photo credit: P. Spector Stephanie Pfirman and Henry Huntington Committee Co-Chairs April 28, 2014

2. Who are we? • National Academy of Sciences (NAS) is a nonprofitorganization established in 1863. We were charteredby Congress during the Lincoln Administration toprovide independent advice to the Nation onscience, engineering, and medicine We are nota government agency. • National Academy of Engineering (NAE - est. 1964) and Institute of Medicine (IOM - est. 1970) are connected institutions, expanding our breadth and depth of expertise. (National Research Council is “operating arm.”) • Intellectual leadership comes from volunteer experts, chosen for expertise, balance, and objectivity. • Committee reports are most well known (200+ reports each year) but also research grants, fellowships, workshops, & other uses of independent experts.

3. Committee Membership LARRY HINZMANUniversity of Alaska, Fairbanks AMANDA LYNCHBrown University A. MICHAEL MACRANDERShell Alaska GIFFORD MILLERUniversity of Colorado, Boulder KATE MORANOcean Networks Canada ELLEN MOSLEY-THOMPSONThe Ohio State University SAMUEL MUKASAUniversity of New Hampshire TOM WEINGARTNERUniversity of Alaska, Fairbanks HENRY HUNTINGTON, Co-ChairThe Pew Charitable Trusts STEPHANIE PFIRMAN, Co-ChairBarnard College, Columbia University CARIN ASHJIANWoods Hole Oceanographic Institution LAURA BOURGEAU-CHAVEZMichigan Technological University JENNIFER FRANCISRutgers University SVEN HAAKANSONUniversity of Washington ROBERT HAWLEYDartmouth College TAQULIK HEPANorth Slope Borough DAVID HIKUniversity of Alberta

4. 1. Study Context • What happens in the Arctic—to ecosystems, people, and climate—has far-reaching implications for the entire planet • Climate change is happening faster in the Arctic than anywhere else on Earth, causing the loss of sea ice, thawing of permafrost, and shifts in ecosystems • This report connects the dots between future science opportunities and methods to meet those challenges

5. Charge to the Committee • Summarize the rationale for continued U.S. research in the Arctic • Identify key emerging scientific questions in different realms of Arctic science (both disciplinary and cross cutting) Photo credit: M. Kennedy • Identify the types of research infrastructure, data management, technological developments, and logistical support needed • Identify needs and opportunities for improved coordination in Arctic research • Explore how agency decision makers might balance their research programs and associated investments

6. Community Engagement • Review of published reports and articles(including previous reports from numerous regional, national, and international agencies, organizations, and other institutions ) • Online questionnaire(over 300 responses) • Targeted interviews(15 researchers) • Anchorage Workshop(~50 participants) • Ottawa Workshop(~45 participants) Photo credit: P. Spector

7. Community Engagement Respondent Career Stage Respondent Disciplines

8. 2. Rationale for Arctic Research Examples of observed impacts of climate change in the Arctic from IPCC 2014

9. 3. Emerging Research Questions • Existing Questions Those that have been the subject of ongoing research but remain unanswered or for other reasons deserve continued attention • Emerging Questions Those that we are only now able to ask because they: • Address newly recognized phenomena • Build on recent results and insights • Can be addressed using newly available technology or access Photo credit: G. Miller

10. Emerging Research Questions Evolving Connected Undetermined Managed Hidden

11. ERQ: Evolving Arctic • Will Arctic communities have greater or lesser influence on their futures? • Will the land be wetter or drier and what are the associated implications for surface water, energy balances, and ecosystems? • How much of the variability of the Arctic system is linked to ocean circulation? • What are the impacts of extreme events in the new ice-reduced system? • How will primary productivity change with decreasing sea ice and snow cover? • How will species distributions and associated ecosystem structure change with the evolving cryosphere? Connected Evolving Undetermined Managed Hidden Figure source: NOAA

12. ERQ: Hidden Arctic • What surprises are hidden within and beneath the ice? • What is being irretrievably lost as the Arctic changes? • Why does winter matter? • What can “break or brake” glaciers and ice sheets? Connected Evolving Undetermined • How unusual is the current Arctic warmth? • What is the role of the Arctic in abrupt change? • What has been the Cenozoic evolution of the Arctic Ocean basin? Managed Hidden Image source: NASA

13. ERQ: Connected Arctic • How will rapid Arctic warming change the jet stream and affect weather patterns in lower latitudes? • What is the potential for a trajectory of irreversible loss of Arctic land ice, and how will its impact vary regionally? • How will climate change affect exchanges between the Arctic Ocean and sub-polar basins? • How will Arctic change affect the long-range transport and persistence of biota? • How will changing societal connections between the Arctic and the rest of the world affect Arctic communities? Connected Evolving Undetermined Managed Hidden Image source: NASA

14. ERQ: Managed Arctic Evolving Connected Undetermined Managed • How will decreasing populations in rural villages and increasing urbanization affect Arctic peoples and societies? • Will local, regional, and international relations in the Arctic move toward cooperation or conflict? • How can twenty-first century development in the Arctic occur without compromising the environment or indigenous cultures while still benefitting global and Arctic inhabitants? • How can we prepare forecasts and scenariosto meet emerging management needs? • What benefits and risks are presented by geoengineering and other large-scale technological interventions to prevent orreduce climate change and associatedimpacts in the Arctic? Hidden Photo source: USCG

15. ERQ:Undetermined Arctic Evolving Connected Undetermined Managed Leaving room for new ideas and making it possible to identify new research directions when the need arises requires: • Research to better assess new topics • Long-term observations to identify changes and surprises without delay • Flexibility in funding to be able to move quickly when a significant event occurs. Hidden

16. Direct Application/Basic Understanding Medium-term Long-term M2: Cooperation/conflict M3: 21st century development M4: Forecasts Short-term M5: Geoengineering E1: Community futures M1: Urbanization C1: Jet stream C5: Social connections E4: Arctic extremes H2: What is lost C2: Irreversible ice E2: Wetter or drier Direct application H3: Winter H6: Abrupt change H4: Break or brake E5: Primary productivity Basic understanding E6: Species distribution H1: Icy surprises E3: Ocean variability C4: Biota transport H5: Unusual warmth C3: Ocean exchange H7: Cenozoic

17. Social Science/Natural Science Medium-term Long-term E1: Community futures M1: Urbanization C5: Social connections Short-term M2: Cooperation/conflict H2: What is lost E4: Arctic extremes M4: Forecasts M5: Geoengineering M3: 21st century development E2: Wetter or drier Social Science E5: Primary productivity C1: Jet stream C2: Irreversible ice H6: Abrupt change C4: Biota transport Natural Science H1: Icy surprises E3: Ocean variability H4: Break or brake H5: Unusual warmth E6: Species distribution C3: Ocean exchange H3: Winter H7: Cenozoic

18. Global/Regional/Local Medium-term Long-term C2: Irreversible ice C3: Ocean exchange H6: Abrupt change H4: Break or brake H1: Icy surprises Short-term C1: Jet stream C4: Biota transport M5: Geoengineering E3: Ocean variability Regional E4: Arctic extremes H5: Unusual warmth C5: Social connections E2: Wetter or drier Global H7: Cenozoic E6: Species distribution M3: 21st century development E5: Primary productivity H3: Winter M1: Urbanization M2: Cooperation/conflict M4: Forecasts Local E1: Community futures H2: What is lost

19. 4. Meeting the Challenges Investment Strategies Human Capacity Cooperation Operations Information Observations

20. Meeting the Challenges Maintaining and Building Operational Capacity • Mobile Platforms • Fixed Platforms and Systems • Remote Sensing • Sensors • Power and Communication • Models in Prediction, Projection, and ReAnalyses • Partnerships with Industry Sustaining Long-Term Observations • Rationale for Long-Term Observations • Coordinating Long-Term Observation Efforts Photo credit: S. Roberts

21. Meeting the Challenges Enhancing Cooperation • Interagency, International, Interdisciplinary, Intersectoral, Social Media Managing and Sharing Information • Preserving the Legacy of Research through Data Preservation and Dissemination • Creating a Culture of Data Preservation and Sharing • Infrastructure to Ensure Data Flows from Observation to Users, Stakeholders, and Archives • Data Visualization and Analysis Growing Human Capacity • Training Young Scientists • Community Engagement Image source: Arctic Collaborative Environment Photo credit: H. Huntington

22. Meeting the Challenges Investing in Research • Comprehensive Systemsand Synthesis Research • Non-Steady-State Research • Social Sciences and Human Capacity • Stakeholder-Initiated Research • International Funding Cooperation • Long-Term Observations Photo source: NOAA

23. 5. Building Knowledge and Solving Problems • Enhance the ways inwhich we make useof Arctic research • Foster collaboration,especially withdecision-makers • Manage change to the best of our abilities • Study what exists, what is emerging, and what awaits us in the Arctic Photo credit: M. Kennedy