Leading During Times of Scarcity: Changing Conditions at the Top of the State

1. Leading During Times of Scarcity: Changing Conditions at the Top of the State Larry Kiley, PhD - Ex. Director, Rural Schools Association of NYS John W. Sipple, PhD - Director, NYS Center for Rural Schools

2. Our Goals • To describe the broad context of NYS • To narrow in on the “Top of the State” • To share our thoughts on the current Challenges, Advantages, Opportunities for leadership in your school districts - To share new resources for you.

3. Small District Summit • March 25th - Syracuse NY • 28 School districts serving fewer than 500 students • Focus on current trends and future pressures • Desire to continue the conversation with larger districts in regional settings.

4. Major Changes from 1990 to 2000: Fewer Youth 1-9; More Teens, 10-19; Fewer Young Adults 20-34; More Mid-Aged 35-64; Fewer Seniors 65-74; More Elderly 75 & Over

5. Job Change • 1950 – 40% of upstate workers employed in manufacturing • 2009 – less than 20% - closer to 15% work in manufacturing • 70% of Rural New Yorkers employed in the service industry

6. Economic Impact(Personal Income) • Increasing levels of poverty – average 11% closing in on national average of 12.4% • Personal Income has grown at ½ the national average – lagged the country by 11% • Workers receive lower wages than counterparts nationwide

7. School Impact • Number of High Need Rural School Districts grew from 144 in 2004 to 158 in 2009 • More than 36% - Free & Reduced Lunch Count • Having lowest average expenditure per pupil ($12,975) • Lowest mean CWR (.48 or less) • Highest state aid ratio (66.8 or more)

8. Student Population • Declined at rate of 1% per year since the year 2000 • Rate of decline in High Need Rurals is 1.5% per year since the year 2000

9. Economic Impact(Property) • Property Values on the Increase – particularly Adirondack Park and Catskill Mountains • In Migration – Metro New York • Relocation • 2nd Homes

10. Changing Demographics • Expectations and Interest of Long Term Residents • Expectations and Interests of New Residents • Fastest growing Sub population is Hispanic– What does it mean?

11. Rural Schools • Advantaged? Disadvantaged? • Size • Capacity • Expertise • Expectation • Isolation

12. Pressures? • Two state commissions • Economy falling off cliff • Declining Enrollments • Weakening property values • Stagnant state-aid • High academic standards

13. County Population Change1990-2000 Source: Program on Applied Demographics, Cornell University

14. County Population Projections2000-2030 Source: Program on Applied Demographics, Cornell University

16. Program on Applied Demographics

17. Table View

18. Assessed Value/Pupil

19. Income/Pupil

20. School Tax Rate (%)

21. What to do? • Program – Look inside and out • Any ‘Excess’ Capacity • Space, Staff, Healthcare, Pre-K, Technology • Reorganization (consolidation) • Functional Consolidation (sharing) • Inter-municipal Agreements (collaborating)

22. SBHCs: My Experience • The first and only “reform” that has absolute, uniform buy-in from school personnel who have one. • Collaboration is built on trust and common goals.

23. Where are they?

24. 1998 Ratio of UPK Slots to 4 yr olds

25. % of 4-year-olds in Pre-K (All Districts)

26. Non-School Resources

27. Empire State Poll (2009) • If merger resulted in improved academic and after-school activities, how supportive of merger? • 69% NYS, 59% Rural • If merger resulted in reduced property taxes, • 52% support, 29% not support (rural only)

28. Empire State Poll (2009) How can schools help local community? • Improve preparation for college • 58% NYS, 48% Rural • Improve preparation for local employment • 22% NYS, 25% Rural • Desire no change • 20% NYS, 27% Rural

29. Empire State Poll (2009) Among these choices, what would best help your local community? If schools provide... • PreK - 27% NYS, 20% Rural • Healthcare - 25% NYS, 27% Rural • Services for immigrant children - 6% NYS, 7% Rural • Services for Parents - 14% NYS, 14% Rural

30. New York State Center for Rural Schools Three Components • Facilitation - Will act as a clearinghouse and conduit to ensure that the needs of rural schools and communities are heard and met • Capacity - Expertise, Data, and Access to Data • Research - Guided by REAC and the Field

31. Access to Data & Contact Info • http://pad.human.cornell.edu • http://www.schooldatadirect.org • http://RSANYS.org • http://NYRuralSchools.org • jws28@cornell.edu & lak25@cornell.edu

32. Questions • What are the implications of what you heard today? For leadership in your schools? Communities? • What can you take away that might help frame how you move forward? • What are your priority areas?