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Biodiversity: Policy Challenges in a Changing World

Biodiversity: Policy Challenges in a Changing World. Natural Capital Initiative symposium: “Valuing our life support systems ” London Professor John Beddington Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government and Head of the Government Office for Science 29 April 2009. Global challenges.

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Biodiversity: Policy Challenges in a Changing World

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  1. Biodiversity: Policy Challenges in a Changing World Natural Capital Initiative symposium: “Valuing our life support systems” London Professor John Beddington Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government and Head of the Government Office for Science 29 April 2009

  2. Global challenges  Population  Urbanisation Alleviating poverty  Energy demand  Water demand Climate Change  Food demand Biodiversity Infectious diseases

  3. Causes of degradation are stable or increasing Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

  4. Biomes More than half of the 6/14 major world biomes had been converted by 1990 Millennium ecosystem assessment Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

  5. HumanFootprint Source: Wildlife Conservation Society

  6. Extinction of species Extinctions per thousand species per million Future extinction rates estimated to be 10 to 100 times higher Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005

  7. CBD 2010 biodiversity target • 2002, Conference of the Parties of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) 123 Ministers committed themselves to: • ‘“.. achieve, by 2010, a significant reduction of the current rate of biodiversity loss at the global, regional and national levels as a contribution to poverty alleviation and to the benefit of all life on earth” (Decision VI/26)

  8. Risks to ecosystems – need to act Source: IPCC AR 4

  9. The situation may be worse than predicted Arctic, near-ice free by 2030? (Source: Wang and Overland, 2009) Source: NSIDC 2007

  10. Ocean Acidification Changes in pH over the last 25 million years Oceans are an important reservoir for CO2 with ~30% of CO2 produced from fossil fuel burning & land-use change taken up by oceans (Sabine et al 2004) • Oceans will become: warmer; more acidic; less diverse; and over exploited • The impact on ocean food webs, ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles could be very serious Source: Blackford & Gilbert 2007, Caldeira & Wickett 2003

  11. Increases in global population and urbanisation Urban and rural populations of the world (at mid-year) 1950 - 2050 World population, by region Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision (medium scenario) Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: 2008 (revision)

  12. Increased demand forfood and energy World food requirements World primary energy demand by fuel Total world energy demands are predicted to increase by approx. 50% by 2030 (Source: IEA 2008: Reference Scenario) World food production must rise by 50 % by 2030 to meet increasing demand (Source: UN 2008)

  13. Source: ABS 2005 Availability of fresh water Fresh water availability per head of world population Cubic metres of water Source: UNEP, 2002 1 in 3 people are already facing water shortages Source: Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture 2007 Total world water demands are predicted to increase by over 30% by 2030 Source: IFRPI

  14. Increased demand 50% by 2030 (IEA) Energy Climate Change Food Increased demand 50% by 2030 (FAO) Water Increased demand 30% by 2030 (IFPRI) The Perfect Storm?

  15. Solutions? • Ensure value of ecosystems are taken into account when making decisions • New energy technology • Make hard choices about agriculture, food, energy and water • Better planning and management • Change behaviour, education and training We recommend enhancing levels of taxonomic training and linking such training more directly to the ongoing measurement of biodiversity. Royal Society – measuring biodiversity for conservation, 2003

  16. Agricultural production More people means less cultivated land per person for food, feed, (agro)-fuel and fibre production 2030 – 8.3 bn people 2030 – even less farmland per person

  17. Hard Agricultural Choices (i) Cereal production evolution Source: NRC, 2008/Henoa and Baanante 2006

  18. Hard Agricultural Choices (ii) Agricultural productivity Source: Embrapa, Brazil

  19. Increased demand 50% by 2030 (IEA) Energy Climate Change Food Increased demand 50% by 2030 (FAO) Water Increased demand 30% by 2030 (IFPRI) Key Questions • Can 9 billion people be fed equitably, healthily and sustainably? • Can we cope with the future demands on water? • Can we provide enough energy to supply the growing population coming out of poverty? • Can we mitigate and adapt to climate change? • Can we do all this in the context of redressing the decline in biodiversity and preserving ecosystems? Biodiversity

  20. Joint Programmes Joint Climate Research Programme

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